Blog Entry

2011 Over/Under valued Players

Posted on: September 6, 2011 12:40 pm
Edited on: September 6, 2011 12:41 pm
Just to show off my fantasy prowess, I'm going to blog about who I feel are over-valued and under-valued in this years fantasy drafts.  Check back with me in a few months to see how I did...

Jamaaal Charles- Don't get me wrong, I think he's got great potential.  Potential to put the ball on the ground, that is.  Jamaal is going to get the chance to prove he can be a top back, but once he starts putting the ball on the ground, we're going to see the uber-safe Thomas Jones splitting carries with Jamaal again, making his top-5 pick, about 2 rounds over-valued.

MJD- I think MJD is past the elite-status as a runner.  He found it very hard to shake his injury last year and it slowed him down tremendously.  He's going to be asked to shoulder a huge load again, and when he gets knicked- I see the Jags pulling back quickly on his touches (unlike last year).  I fully expect his production to be not much more than what it was last year.    At least a full round over-valued.

Vincent Jackson- Just a beast.  He should be up with Roddy White and Calvin Johnson.  Besides being a great receiver, he's one of those few 'jump ball' receivers who can bail out a QB.

Marques Colston- A very solid receiver, but his stats will be watered down by Brees' tendency to spread the ball around thin enough to see through.  On a team like the Colts, he would be putting up Reggie Wayne numbers as the go-to-guy.  As it is, he's a solid guy, but not one you can count on every single week.

Ryan Mathews- Break out time.  Finally healthy, he's going to be given the opportunity to shine.  The first few games he may lose a few Red Zone carries and 3rd down opportunities, but I expect Mathews to put up some big numbers.  Big enough to be a strong 1st round consideration next year.

Tim Hightower- Plays for the Redskins.  Need I say much more?  Teams will stack the box, daring Grossman/Beck to throw on them.  Half of Hightowers fantasy points will be from TD runs inside the 10.  The bad news is, there won't be many of them.

Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne, and all the other WR's for the Colts will rely on Manning's neck.  If Manning isn't up to starting by week 5 or 6, the Colts will likely be 1-5 and out of the playoff race, and would likely shut down Manning for the season.  Can you hear the whistle as Clark's and Wayne's value plummets?

Ryan Grant- will be a steal in the 5th or later rounds.  A 1st/2nd rounder in 2010 before his injury, there's no reason to believe he won't be running at that level this year- no one will be stacking the box against Rodgers, so Grant should be able to pop off 5-10 yard runs like a teenagers pops zits.

Ochocinco- can you say Patriots and Moss in '10?  Another receiver past his prime, trying to prove something.  His numbers will be better than Moss's, but he shouldn't be drafted with the intention of being a fantasy STARTER.

Kevin Kolb- This is a very similar offense to what Warner had 2 years ago.  Kolb is no Kurt Warner, but he's waaaaay more than Derek Anderson. 

Plaxico Burress- One of those 'jump ball' guys I talked about with Vincent Jackson.  He's fresh out of jail, but Vick proved jail time can be one hell of an incentive to give your best.  This is one of the few guys who has a realistic shot at 3 TD's any given week.  I'm betting he has at least one.

Lee Evans- Teams will try stacking the box to slow down the monster known as Ray Rice, daring Flacco to beat them in the air.  With teams trying to lock down Boldin, Evans will get some long ball opportunities that made him a fantasy monster a few years ago in Buffalo.  Not 2nd/3rd round numbers, but better than the 10th round or later he's going for in drafts.

Antonio Brown- this kid flashed his abilities in the preseason.  With teams worried about Wallace and Ward, PITT will slip Brown in and out of games, and he's going to burn some defenses on a regular basis.

Reggie Bush-  Miami drafted Thomas, expecting him to be an impact rookie.  Too bad his preseason was bad enough to make his impact a dent on the bench.  Bush is going to get at least 5-10 carries a game, plus another 5+ swing/outlet passes.  In a PPR league, Bush could have a big fantasy impact- especially if the offense can stay on the field a little more than last year.

Lions DST- yes, the Detroit Lions.  Even I'm not gutsy enough to draft them, the fantasy gurus are putting the Lions at the mid to bottom of the league in terms of DST points.  Wrong.  This is a team that has some confidence, and the talent to back it up on the defensive line.  2 games against each Cutler and McNabb should help their fantasy numbers.  The Lions play a feast or famine schedule with regards to opposing QB's.  When they feast, it should be gluttony.  I see the Lions finishing top 10 in DST points. A great platoon candidate for DSTs.

Category: Fantasy Football
Tags: Draft, elite, RB, value, WR

Since: Feb 15, 2008
Posted on: December 16, 2011 1:24 pm

2011 Over/Under valued Players

Well, season is almost over so I thought I'd rate myself and how my analysis fared.  Several players had injuries that took out at least half their season, so can't really be rated fairly:  Jamaal Charles, Tim Hightower, and Lee Evans.  Hightower was performing better than I expected, but then, so was Washington, early in the season.  Lee Evans replacement, Torrey Smith, once familiar with the offense and integrated- had the kind of games I expected out of Evans.

Players that I went BUST with:  MJD, Ryan Grant
     MJD simply had a great season with an offensive line that opened holes that I did not expect.  Great season.
     Ryan Grant- shared time with Starks more than I would have expected. Grant never looked comfortable until Starks went down.  GB did not incorporate the RB's into the passing game for some reason (plenty of success with the WR/TE's, I suppose)

Players that faired similarly to what I predicted: Vincent Jackson, Kevin Kolb, Plaxico Burress
     Jackson has some fantastic games, but he also disappeared in several.  There is a lingering hamstring that could be to blame for part of it, and Rivers has had a terrible season.  Currently 10th at WR points.  That's actually good, but I expected top 5.
     Kevin Kolb has had some injuries that have made it tough to guage him as a win or a loss here.  About half the time he played healthy, and half he played horribly.  That's why he's here in between.
     Plaxico Burris had that 3 TD game I predicted, but wasn't as consistent as I had expected.  11th in TDs by WR after week 14, he was used pretty much like I expected- except that the Jet's offense really struggled at times, hurting his overall chances and targets.

Players that I NAILED:  M.Colston, R.Mathews, Colts Players, Ochocinco, A.Brown, Reggie Bush, Lions DST
     Colston had a few good games, and a few stinkers- just as I expected from an offense that spreads the ball around.  I think the Saints use a dartboard before each game to determine who gets a dozen targets that game...
     R. Mathews split time early with Tolbert, but still managed to be the #10 RB despite losing too many goal-line carries to count to this years top vulture.  Without Tolbert- Mathews would have been a top 3 RB.
     Colts players.  There were enough warning signs to not draft a Colt's player this year, and I followed those signs.  I hate to say I told you so, but, "I told you so".
     Ochocinco.  Not much to say except "see Colts warning above"...
     Antonio Brown could have had a much better season than his current spot at #25, had the Steelers trusted him sooner.  If you were as patient as I was in holding onto him, you were rewarded in the second half of the season.
     Reggie Bush's season was similar to Mathew's and Brown's... a slow start as their respective teams either didn't trust them fully yet, or didn't know yet how to use them.  I dropped Bush after week 4, and I'm still kicking myself for it.
     Lions DST performed pretty well, as I predicted.  Currently 7th in fantasy points- virtually no one gave them a look early on.  If you started/sat them on the weeks you should have, you probably made a killing in your league at DST.

Well, overall I did well- and it was evident in my fantasy teams.  Out of 3 teams, I made the playoffs in one, and was eliminated in the last week in the other two.  (One team had really, really bad luck with injuries and a lack of TD's at the WR and RB positions)

I'll be back next year with more fantasy picks!

Since: Aug 26, 2011
Posted on: September 9, 2011 10:24 am

2011 Over/Under valued Players

I like what you had to say about the players in your blog.  There are two players I am going to disagree with you on: Jamaal Charles and Ryan Grant.  I think KC will run, run, run the ball quite a bit this season.  This first week they will run the ball a lot because of the rib injury to Cassel.  Now, Ryan Grant is a good player, but it looks like he may be sharing carries with J.Starks.  I do agree with you that he is a steal in later rounds, but risky as your RB1 or RB2.  I like him as a Flex player or backup.  Share some more of your thoughts about more players; I'm interested in hearing what you have to say.  What is your opinion about Owen Daniels, Arian Foster, Sam Bradford, Josh Freeman, Matt Ryan, and Matt Hasselbeck?

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