Just to show off my fantasy prowess, I'm going to blog about who I feel are over-valued and under-valued in this years fantasy drafts. Check back with me in a few months to see how I did...
Jamaaal Charles- Don't get me wrong, I think he's got great potential. Potential to put the ball on the ground, that is. Jamaal is going to get the chance to prove he can be a top back, but once he starts putting the ball on the ground, we're going to see the uber-safe Thomas Jones splitting carries with Jamaal again, making his top-5 pick, about 2 rounds over-valued.
MJD- I think MJD is past the elite-status as a runner. He found it very hard to shake his injury last year and it slowed him down tremendously. He's going to be asked to shoulder a huge load again, and when he gets knicked- I see the Jags pulling back quickly on his touches (unlike last year). I fully expect his production to be not much more than what it was last year. At least a full round over-valued.
Vincent Jackson- Just a beast. He should be up with Roddy White and Calvin Johnson. Besides being a great receiver, he's one of those few 'jump ball' receivers who can bail out a QB.
Marques Colston- A very solid receiver, but his stats will be watered down by Brees' tendency to spread the ball around thin enough to see through. On a team like the Colts, he would be putting up Reggie Wayne numbers as the go-to-guy. As it is, he's a solid guy, but not one you can count on every single week.
Ryan Mathews- Break out time. Finally healthy, he's going to be given the opportunity to shine. The first few games he may lose a few Red Zone carries and 3rd down opportunities, but I expect Mathews to put up some big numbers. Big enough to be a strong 1st round consideration next year.
Tim Hightower- Plays for the Redskins. Need I say much more? Teams will stack the box, daring Grossman/Beck to throw on them. Half of Hightowers fantasy points will be from TD runs inside the 10. The bad news is, there won't be many of them.
Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne, and all the other WR's for the Colts will rely on Manning's neck. If Manning isn't up to starting by week 5 or 6, the Colts will likely be 1-5 and out of the playoff race, and would likely shut down Manning for the season. Can you hear the whistle as Clark's and Wayne's value plummets?
Ryan Grant- will be a steal in the 5th or later rounds. A 1st/2nd rounder in 2010 before his injury, there's no reason to believe he won't be running at that level this year- no one will be stacking the box against Rodgers, so Grant should be able to pop off 5-10 yard runs like a teenagers pops zits.
Ochocinco- can you say Patriots and Moss in '10? Another receiver past his prime, trying to prove something. His numbers will be better than Moss's, but he shouldn't be drafted with the intention of being a fantasy STARTER.
Kevin Kolb- This is a very similar offense to what Warner had 2 years ago. Kolb is no Kurt Warner, but he's waaaaay more than Derek Anderson.
Plaxico Burress- One of those 'jump ball' guys I talked about with Vincent Jackson. He's fresh out of jail, but Vick proved jail time can be one hell of an incentive to give your best. This is one of the few guys who has a realistic shot at 3 TD's any given week. I'm betting he has at least one.
Lee Evans- Teams will try stacking the box to slow down the monster known as Ray Rice, daring Flacco to beat them in the air. With teams trying to lock down Boldin, Evans will get some long ball opportunities that made him a fantasy monster a few years ago in Buffalo. Not 2nd/3rd round numbers, but better than the 10th round or later he's going for in drafts.
Antonio Brown- this kid flashed his abilities in the preseason. With teams worried about Wallace and Ward, PITT will slip Brown in and out of games, and he's going to burn some defenses on a regular basis.
Reggie Bush- Miami drafted Thomas, expecting him to be an impact rookie. Too bad his preseason was bad enough to make his impact a dent on the bench. Bush is going to get at least 5-10 carries a game, plus another 5+ swing/outlet passes. In a PPR league, Bush could have a big fantasy impact- especially if the offense can stay on the field a little more than last year.
Lions DST- yes, the Detroit Lions. Even I'm not gutsy enough to draft them, the fantasy gurus are putting the Lions at the mid to bottom of the league in terms of DST points. Wrong. This is a team that has some confidence, and the talent to back it up on the defensive line. 2 games against each Cutler and McNabb should help their fantasy numbers. The Lions play a feast or famine schedule with regards to opposing QB's. When they feast, it should be gluttony. I see the Lions finishing top 10 in DST points. A great platoon candidate for DSTs.