Blog Entry

Spring primer: Cincinnati Reds

Posted on: March 4, 2012 10:21 pm
Edited on: March 4, 2012 10:22 pm

By C. Trent Rosecrans

With Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder leaving the National League Central, Reds general manager Walt Jocketty saw an opportunity to take the division. Jocketty traded two of the team's top prospects to San Diego for Mat Latos and fortified the bullpen with the additions of Ryan Madson and Sean Marshall. With Joey Votto under contract for just the next two years, the Reds see these two years as their best chance to win, and the team is going for it.

Major additions: RHP Mat Latos, RHP Ryan Madson, LHP Sean Marshall, OF Ryan Ludwick
Major departures: RHP Francisco Cordero, RHP Edinson Volquez, C Ramon Hernandez, 1B Yonder Alonso

Probable lineup
1. Brandon Phillips 2B
2. Zack Cozart SS
3. Joey Votto 1B
4. Scott Rolen 3B
5. Jay Bruce RF
6. Ryan Ludwick LF
7. Drew Stubbs CF
8. Ryan Hanigan C

Probable rotation
1. Johnny Cueto
2. Mat Latos
3. Bronson Arroyo
4. Mike Leake
5. Homer Bailey

Back-end bullpen
Closer: Ryan Madson
Set-up: LHP Sean Marshall, RHP Nick Masset, LHP Bill Bray

Important bench players
C Devin Mesoraco, OF Chris Heisey, 3B Juan Francisco

Prospect to watch
The Reds sent Alonso to San Diego in the deal that brought Latos to Cincinnati, making many nervous about the post-Votto era. If Votto doesn't re-sign with the Reds, many saw Alonso as the heir apparent. Now that Alonso's out of the picture, the first baseman of the future is Neftali Soto. The 23-year-old was the team's third-round pick in 2007 and played shortstop, third base and catcher in addition to first base. But the team finally left him at first in 2011. The reason the team kept moving him was that his bat has never been an issue. Last season he hit 30 home runs in just 102 games at Double-A Carolina, missing a month with a broken bone in his left wrist. He doesn't walk much (just 103 walks and 375 strikeouts in five minor-league seasons), but he has plenty of power to all fields, with 10 of his 31 homers (including one in four games at Triple-A) were opposite field shots.

Fantasy sleeper: Homer Bailey
"The Reds have been conservative with Bailey and the team hopes that their caution will pay off this season. If he can stay healthy, Bailey has an excellent chance for a breakout season, as he has made steady improvements in his pitch selection, control and efficiency." -- Al Melchior [Full Reds fantasy preview]

Fantasy bust: Ryan Ludwick
"Some observers have pointed to Ludwick's career line at Great American Ball Park (.276/.321/.600) as a sign of an impending comeback season, and it's true that he has had the misfortune of playing in pitchers' parks for most of his career. However, Ludwick has just 19 plate appearances at GABP over the last two years, a time period during which he has seen an erosion of his power numbers, both at home and on the road." -- Al Melchior [Full Reds fantasy preview]

Optimistic outlook
Not only does Cueto improve upon his breakout 2011, but Latos is even better than he was in the second half of 2011, giving the Reds a dominant and young top of the rotation. Add to that a healthy Arroyo and see Bailey live up to his immense potential -- and the Reds have one of the best rotations in the National League. The offense continues to put up runs and Cincinnati eases into the postseason past the fading Cardinals and Brewers.

Pessimistic outlook
Injuries and unfulfilled potential lead to the second straight season of disappointment on the Ohio River. Not only does the starting pitching falter, but Stubbs breaks Mark Reynolds' single-season strikeout record, Bruce isn't able to make adjustments and rookies Mesoraco and Cozart play like rookies at the two most important defensive positions on the diamond. Milwaukee and St. Louis once again are the class of the division, while Pittsburgh improves and not only breaks its 19-year streak of losing seasons, but also leapfrogs the Reds for third in the NL Central. Adding insult to injury, Phillips leaves as a free agent and with the team in flux, Votto is sent away for prospects and another rebuilding job is underway.

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Since: Sep 29, 2006
Posted on: March 5, 2012 10:35 pm

Spring primer: Cincinnati Reds

Phillips is the biggest loser with the new CBA.  He'll be offered arbitration ($12-13MM) so long as he wants to be a Red.  If he tests FA, we get a supplemental pick, if not, we get BP at a discount.

Since: Aug 24, 2011
Posted on: March 5, 2012 8:14 pm

Spring primer: Cincinnati Reds

you are wayyyyyy off base..this will be a very competitive division..I will take it a step further...the top 4 (including PIT) could go any way...vary balanced. Reds will finish better than 3rd

Since: Feb 18, 2011
Posted on: March 5, 2012 7:49 pm

Spring primer: Cincinnati Reds

That pessimistic outlook does worry me. In all likelihood, Phillips is gone after this year. The Reds aren't going to pay top dollar for a player who doesn't walk much and whose range will start to decline with age. And Votto ... if the Reds implode I wouldn't be surprised to see him traded.

But I don't see that happening. I see a Reds October.

Since: Nov 30, 2010
Posted on: March 5, 2012 2:57 pm

Spring primer: Cincinnati Reds


Since: Jun 3, 2009
Posted on: March 5, 2012 2:20 pm

Spring primer: Cincinnati Reds

It isn't much of a stretch to see all the "important bench players" starting at some point.  Rolen will suffer an injury soon enough and isn't much more than average when healthy.  Hanigan seems better suited to a back up role and Ludwick is Ludwick.

Since: Dec 7, 2006
Posted on: March 5, 2012 1:59 pm

Spring primer: Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are probably a 3rd place team in their division, but they will still contend. Adding Sean Marshall can only help them, and Ludwig gives them more depth in the OF. I think Aroldis Chapman will be a contributor to the team in some way, perhaps as a spot starter. The team really doesn't have any glaring holes, except perhaps their manager.

Since: Jul 31, 2008
Posted on: March 5, 2012 12:33 pm

Spring primer: Cincinnati Reds

I hope for better but I think 3rd place again. Not as good as St. Louis/Milwaukee even without Pujols and Fielder respectively and adding Latos will not be lightning in a bottle not in GABP. But I cant see Pittsburg leap frogging unless the Reds just have a total collapse. Ludwick will generate some power but no avg thats for sure.

Since: Mar 9, 2011
Posted on: March 5, 2012 9:24 am

Spring primer: Cincinnati Reds

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