Play Fantasy Use your Fantasy skills to win Cash Prizes. Join or start a league today. Play Now
Blog Entry

Tebow's success a mirage

Posted on: October 23, 2011 4:44 pm
Edited on: October 23, 2011 8:49 pm
 
T. Tebow had a great final five minutes of the game Sunday (US Presswire).Posted by Josh Katzowitz

The Broncos made a ridiculous comeback on the Dolphins, and Tim Tebow was front and center, throwing touchdown passes and running in a two-point conversion. After the Broncos 18-15 overtime win against the Dolphins, he kneeled on the sideline. He could have been saying thanks for the final result. Or he could have been praying for the future.

Because while the first was impressive, the second is cloudy. 

For the first 55 minutes of this game, Tebow was terrible. Then, for five minutes at the end of regulation, he was the All-American from the University of Florida, leading his team to victory.

Tebow was terrible before he was awesome on Sunday. The Miami crowd went from jeering the Florida native to cheering him and chanting his name.

But don’t you believe the hype. Tebow was horrendous for much of the day, and Denver’s win had more to do with how bad the Dolphins are* than the future of Tebow’s NFL career.

*Urban Meyer was in the house and spotted talking to Dolphins owner Stephen Ross. Do you think Ross offered him the job right there and then?

His first pass of the day should have been intercepted by Karlos Dansby. There were times when it appeared that he had no idea what he was doing. And it was clear John Fox didn’t trust him enough to run a fourth and 1 play (instead, Matt Prater missed his second field goal of the day).

Broncos fans applauded when the Broncos first announced that Kyle Orton would be replaced by Tebow as the starting quarterback, and today, their judgment has been vindicated. But it’s only temporary. At least Orton is a quarterback that looks like a professional athlete most of the time he plays. Tebow looks like a pro athlete as well. But not as a quarterback. Maybe as a tight end. Maybe as an H-back. Hell, maybe as a linebacker.

But not as a quarterback.

He overthrew a wide-open Eric Decker on a long pass that would have yielded a touchdown. He threw too high. For most of the day, he made Dolphins quarterback Matt Moore look like the best signal-caller on the field. By far.

Midway through the fourth quarter, Tebow had been sacked five times while completing four passes (he finished 13 of 27 for 161 yards and two touchdowns while rushing eight times for 65 yards). He led a nice drive late in the fourth quarter to get his team on the scoreboard, and he kept it up after Denver recovered an onside kick. But he was mostly making do with screen passes, short-yardage throws and scrambles.

The stats don’t look as bad as Tebow performed Sunday. But it was an anomaly, a fluke.

What does it mean for this Broncos season that is still a lost cause? Fox can’t go back to Orton now, but would he if Tebow continues to struggle? What about Brady Quinn -- who, like Orton, is in the final year of his contract?

Or maybe, just maybe, this is some elaborate conspiracy plan to secure the services of Andrew Luck. Sure, that’s a ridiculous notion and it backfired Sunday. But is it that much more ridiculous than implying that Tebow is a legitimate NFL starting quarterback? Even with today’s result, I’d say no.

After all, you shouldn’t see the mirage for the trees.



For more NFL news, rumors and analysis, follow @EyeOnNFL on Twitter and subscribe to our RSS Feed.
Comments

Since: Feb 25, 2009
Posted on: October 27, 2011 12:51 am
 

Tebow's success a mirage

Umm...genius..I am talking about Tebow being a winner at Florida and in life.  Not just Sunday's meaningless game against the awful Dolphins.  The Idiot Brigade?  Seriously?  Are you there fearless leader?  You seem to know an awful lot about them.  It is the old adage, "It takes one to know one."
Wow. The silver platter on which I hand it to you still flies over your head. Bored already.



Since: Jun 12, 2009
Posted on: October 26, 2011 12:21 am
 

Tebow's success a mirage

If you're talking about the game against the Miami Dolphins, then yes, there is little dispute there. Which is why you'll notice that I didn't dispute his role in winning that game. Oh, wait, you didn't. You just saw some idiot shrieking at me about his hallucinated version of what I said and responded to that. Good job, Captain Observant. You just fell into step with the Idiot Brigade. Look before you leap.


Umm...genius..I am talking about Tebow being a winner at Florida and in life.  Not just Sunday's meaningless game against the awful Dolphins.  The Idiot Brigade?  Seriously?  Are you there fearless leader?  You seem to know an awful lot about them.  It is the old adage, "It takes one to know one." 



Since: Feb 25, 2009
Posted on: October 25, 2011 7:48 pm
 

la2r

An H-back half-life? Interesting proposition, but I think it might be a bit too extreme. Figure a featured H-back (the kind that burn out quickly) gets at least between 15-20 touches per game. If he's worth his salt, he breaks a few tackles per game; let's say 5. So he's being hit a minimum of 20-25 times per game. Tebow's scrambling style will get him hit more than most QB's, but if I were a coach, I would lose my stack if my QB was getting hit 20-25 times per game.

The playmaking-ability not getting better with age is a sound argument, if one accepts that Tebow is less likely to be developed into an efficient passer than he is to be effective as the wild card he is now. I'm not so sure he can't be molded. He's not stupid, he has a decent arm, and he has that oft-highlighted drive to succeed. I suppose in that case the question becomes whether or not he has a natural gift for seeing into complex patterns and picking out the relevant information (open receiver... here!). QB diagnostics is (IMHO) part skill, part talent. I think Tebow has the latter, but not the former.

My fear for Tebow is that his style at present is good for the short-term (no more than a season at best), because eventually, teams will break his game down - no matter how unpredictable, these guys are pros for a reason - and gameplan him into the ground.

It's like the raw-but-physically-gifted receiver. When they start, they have the size/strength/speed/all of the above to make up for rookie mistakes. As they mature, they marry athleticism to skill and hit their prime. When their physical abilities decline, they lean more on their learned skills until eventually, the game passes them by. In Tebow's case, I feel he hasn't been given the chance to marry his rare athletic gifts to the skills. This would produce the short half-life you mentioned almost as soon as his physical gifts began to abandon him.

My argument, then, is that Tebow's long-term prospects actually increase by sitting another year or two (not much longer than that, or we get into the wasted physical abilities you mentioned).

Of course, all of this is moot, since it is your proposal that will be tested. In this, I have the more comfortable position, since mine will always have a 50/50 chance of succeeding by virtue of never having been tried. Mwahahahaha!!!!!



Since: Sep 7, 2006
Posted on: October 25, 2011 3:33 pm
 

Lotus

Lotus- I decided to follow your posts since you're an interesting read.  Anyhow, the more I watch Tebow and the more I read about his flaws the more I feel that we're asking the wrong questions.  

It seems to me that you have two simple premises at this time 1) His mechanics are awful and he's bound for failure if he plays now & 2) That he's just not ready.

Quite honestly, I think your first premise has alot more merit than your second.  Any rational person probably understands that the odds of Tebow consistently succeeding at this level are less than 50/50.  So it seems like the the real question should be whether those odds increase or decrease by sitting him on the bench longer?

I still believe that he is beyond analogy. He's like a weird H-back/playmaker that flings the ball around every once in a while.  I'm not sure how he could ever be compared to anyone that has ever played the game before.  His style is just bizarre.  That being said, how do we really know that the bizarre style can't actually work and why do we think he could ever develop into some basic pocket passer?  Quite frankly, I don't see it.  I do not believe that he could ever develop into a basic pocket style passer no matter how long he sits. His mechanics will never be completely corrected.  So based on that theory, it seems that his best asset is and will always be his playmaking ability and that is not something likely to "improve with age."

Think about it, at 23-24, his body can take a pounding, he's mobile, agile and can make plays with his feet.  At some point, he's not going to be able to do this.  Playing this style like an H-back (which I believe is the only style that will work for him)--- his window of opportunity is only so long.  I would estimate 4-6 years.  That's it. His playing window is like that of a running back.  So those assessing him have two options in my opinion--   you can maximize him for 4-6 years and see if this bizarre plan might work, or you can just sit him and hope he develops into a pocket passer, which to me seems highly unlikely.  I think option 1 has alot more upside than Option 2.



Since: Feb 25, 2009
Posted on: October 25, 2011 2:49 am
 

Tebow's success a mirage

Bottom line....Tim Tebow = Winner....nobody can dispute that.  Oh, except for lotusmaglite.  He will dispute anything. 
If you're talking about the game against the Miami Dolphins, then yes, there is little dispute there. Which is why you'll notice that I didn't dispute his role in winning that game. Oh, wait, you didn't. You just saw some idiot shrieking at me about his hallucinated version of what I said and responded to that. Good job, Captain Observant. You just fell into step with the Idiot Brigade. Look before you leap.



Since: Sep 27, 2006
Posted on: October 24, 2011 6:19 pm
 

Tebow's success a mirage

Another dopey article by a dope that shouldn't be writing.  This is a terrible article.  Go disect every QB's performance on a weekly basis.  Win or lose.  If they make a comeback victory, talk about how they were down so much early.  RIDICULOUS! That's what a COMEBACK WIN IS! Now resign from this privilege you have been wrongfully given.



Since: Jun 12, 2009
Posted on: October 24, 2011 11:52 am
 

Tebow's success a mirage

Bottom line....Tim Tebow = Winner....nobody can dispute that.  Oh, except for lotusmaglite.  He will dispute anything.  Does it really matter what he did in the first 55 minutes of the game?  Nope.  All that matters is that Denver got a W.  You don't win championships with statistics (ask LBJ and Marino.)  Now before lotusmaglite assumes that I am saying Denver is going to the Super Bowl let me stop him.  Denver is a bad team and they will not go to the Super Bowl. 

Great win for Touchdown Timmy and the Broncos.  Let's hope he does it again next weekend.



Since: Jan 2, 2007
Posted on: October 24, 2011 8:16 am
 

Tebow's success a mirage

At least Katzowitz saw the same game I saw yesterday.  Tim Tebow's first 55 minutes was one of the worst QBing performances ever seen in the NFL.  Better lucky than good at the end, but some of the missed throws, missed reads, and overall look of confusion by Tebow was just positively painful to watch.  The Denver D and special teams really had more to do with this win than did Tebow.  And - CBS announcer Simon Wilcotts sure has some kind of man-crush on Tebow.  Some of his comments were insanely worshipful!  Tebowners everywhere are rejoicing right now, but truly analytical Broncos fans have a great deal of concern for the future of the team with Tebow at the helm.



Since: Feb 25, 2009
Posted on: October 24, 2011 12:51 am
 

Tebow's success a mirage

this idiotic insistence that TT hasnt been developed (this moron has gone on about this for 4 weeks) is laughable.  its actually stupid and has no merit whatsoever.
That's not my opinion, idiot. It's the opinion of the scouts, the analysts, and the coaches. I'm just taking it for granted that these people know a little more about football than you do.
and he wont listen to any amount of logic whatsoever.
Like the logic of pretending I'm the only one who says this stuff?

roethlisberger played in the MAC, played huge amounts his first year. Flacco played from the 1st snap of his first game. matty ice 1st snap.
The difference, moron, is that none of those guys were considered projects who should never have gone in the first round. Again, this is not my opinion; this is what the football experts said. Repeatedly.

what is his next really "im a football genius" point.  that this will ruin poor TT. yep going 1-6 in his rookie year ruined Elway. bradshaw going 5-8 in his rookie year ruined him. manning going 3-13 ruined him. brees getting played in his 2nd year
Sweet goddess Eris, you are an idiot. Yeah, Peyton Manning and Tim Tebow were exactly the same kind of prospects coming out of college. They're so similar that Manning's track record should be a great indicator of what Tebow's will be.

Are you trying to be stupid or something? Because if you are, congratulations. Otherwise, at least try not to insult someone else's intelligence while showing the kind of knee-jerk stupidity rampant in your comment. For those of us paying attention, my statements are based on the scouting reports, the coach's comments and decisions, and the analysts' take. Yours are based on rock-f***ing-stupid comparisions between Tim Tebow and Peyton Manning, and the oblivious idea that I'm conjuring the fact that Tebow was considered a project and that he hasn't had enough time to develop out of thin air. Put your pea-shooter away, junior. You're embarrassing yourself.



Since: Sep 20, 2006
Posted on: October 23, 2011 10:36 pm
 

Tebow's success a mirage

Who cares about a win over the worst team in the NFL.  So all that really happened was the Dolphins got a little closer too drafting Luck.  Tebow stinks as a QB and when he plays a real team he will lose.  He played 4 games last year and won 1.  Yes he is a great guy and is all squeaky clean but the NFl could care less and so will fans.  I say let him play and let the dumb Denver fans see what they get.  By the end of the year when the Broncos are still crappy with Tebow they will want someone else to play QB.  All the college crap Tebow did won't mean anything when he plays a real NFL defense.  On second thought I might be wrong he does play in one of the worst divisions in football so maybe he will be ok.


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com