Blog Entry

Colts loss to Jaguars clinches No. 1 overall pick

Posted on: December 23, 2011 1:37 pm
Edited on: December 23, 2011 4:07 pm
Andrew Luck applauds the effort of teams trying to land the top pick. (Getty Images)
By Will Brinson

On Thursday night, the Colts theoretically -- as Gregg Doyel noted in his lose-lose column from the game -- shot themselves in the foot by beating Houston 19-16. After all, even though we play to win the games, you don't want to win so many games that you lose out on once-in-a-generation prospect Andrew Luck.

Fortunately, the Colts didn't totally sink their own battleship against the Texans -- the NFL confirmed on Friday, via Peter King of Sports Illustrated, that if the Colts lose to the Jaguars in Week 17, they will clinch the No. 1 overall seed in the 2012 NFL Draft.

Currently, the Colts, Rams and Vikings all have two losses. The Colts have the "best" strength of schedule (read: they play a worse set of teams than St. Louis or Minnesota and yet are just as bad), so they'd likely win any tiebreaker for the top pick if all three two-win teams lose their remaining games.

If the Colts win, however, they won't just be working on a serious Hail Mary for Jim Caldwell's career as coach there; they'll also probably cough up a shot at Luck.

That presumes that the Vikings fall to the Redskins and Bears, of course. If they do, though, they'll hold the No. 1 overall pick and be faced with a fascinating decision.

If they're sure Christian Ponder, taken in the top 10 of the 2011 Draft, is the answer, they can move the top pick to a team that's desperate for a quarterback.

The Dolphins and Redskins would, by most accounts, be willing to give up an insane haul of draft picks in exchange for the rights to draft Luck.

Of course, the Colts could also trade the rights to Luck for a bevy of picks, but that would give Peyton Manning more leverage when it came to any attempted negotiations of the deadline for picking up his option than would missing out on the top pick. Plus, Indy has a need in the long term for a franchise quarterback, so seeing them deal the top pick in the draft is pretty unlikely.

Then again, a few weeks ago, so was the possibility of someone else landing it.

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Since: Nov 5, 2007
Posted on: January 29, 2012 8:35 am

Colts loss to Jaguars clinches No. 1 overall pick

Sorry, but no team wants to go win less and now that the Colts have lost the goose egg, they will get teh nr one pick. BTW, is it me or does this shot of Luck make him look like the brother of the psychiatrist in Bones? Pretty darn close! Cheers!

Since: Oct 26, 2009
Posted on: December 24, 2011 11:28 am

Colts loss to Jaguars clinches No. 1 overall pick

"Currently, the Colts, and all have two losses."

Yeah - no kidding, Will.  Why don't you add 10 to that and your sentence makes sense.  Or change losses to wins.

Since: Jul 1, 2009
Posted on: December 24, 2011 9:54 am

Colts loss to Jaguars clinches No. 1 overall pick

Anyone who has tried to build a fantasy team around one top player knows how fleeting the satisfaction can be. Without depth, you are gambling with one lottery ticket. But this isn't fantasy for the Colts, is it? There is a much higher degree of franchise parity and competitive balance in the NFL than in other major sports. You have to have the stable of players to match up with the rest week to week, all season. Should the Colts win the Luck lottery, they have to choose between waiting a few years to perhaps develop a star QB and build a team around him, or hope Peyton is healthy and ride out his phenomenal career for perhaps a couple seasons with the tools he can use to succeed. Remember, Indy fans, Manning IS the once in a generation QB and an unparalleled leader. Clearly he makes players around him better and the team doesn't even resemble a winning franchise without him. Over the next two years, I would put my chips on Peyton to succeed over Luck. Many will remind us how rookies often do not pan out or live up to the hype. The added pressure of replacing a legend and carrying the team can be too much for some young men. But Luck shows the signs of being the real deal, and other teams will give up a lot to get him, perhaps too much. This could benefit the Colts even more, giving Peyton and the franchise depth and growth for years. But there's another option which despite the recent speculation and apparent hesitance by Manning, is really the best option. Both. Would Rogers have succeeded coming in directly supplanting Favre? Maybe, but I doubt Green Bay fans would change the past now. If I had to decide, I'd take Luck and keep Manning. Let the new prince apprentice under the current master. And back him up in case the old engine fails him. Why choose between gambling on now and building the future, when you can win now and for years to come, without giving up anything more. Just make sure you protect them with a good offensive line, or all bets are off!

Since: Nov 2, 2006
Posted on: December 24, 2011 8:20 am

Colts loss to Jaguars clinches No. 1 overall pick

I think if the Jaguars were smart, they would throw the game against the Colts next week to hurt the Colts' chances to pick up Luck. They've dealt with Peyton for the last 10 years, do they want to have to deal with Luck the next 10? Then again, maybe the Rams' and Vikings' opponents are thinking the same thing and all three of the teams win.

As a Peyton fan, I am hoping the Colts do not get Luck. I want Peyton to decide when he leaves Indy (unlike Bret Favre and Donovan McNabb). The way the NFL treats great quarterbacks, NFL stands for "No Freaking (or use other F-word if you like) Loyalty"

Since: Oct 7, 2011
Posted on: December 24, 2011 2:02 am

Colts loss to Jaguars clinches No. 1 overall pick

For all the hype I really hope Luck pans out, I also think if the Colts are serious about competing they have to take Luck. They cannot pull a Jacksonville and grab the next guy just because Mel Kiper or Tod McShaye say he is good, after Luck without Barkley the QB draft is really weak and can Peyton take the abuse for a whole season at his age after sitting out all year.

Since: Oct 28, 2006
Posted on: December 23, 2011 5:30 pm

Colts loss to Jaguars clinches No. 1 overall pick

Even if the Colts lose the 1st pick they can still land a guy that some say is better than Luck in Griffin. I'd be comfortable letting either of these guy take over for Manning and if you can trade Manning. I don't see the use of missing on either of those guys and running with a guy who's neck is gimped and is 36. There's always a contender that will take him from Indy.

Since: Dec 4, 2011
Posted on: December 23, 2011 4:13 pm

Colts loss to Jaguars cliches No. 1 overall pick

FROM an Indianapolis native.
An "old" Peyton Manning is worth 10 developng Andrew Lucks.
Drafting Luck guarantees nothing.
Having Peyton back next year almost guarantees a playoff position and a possible Super Bowl.
Who knows where we will all be in the time it takes for Luck to develope with probably a whole new team around him!
Everybody seem to think we, in Indy, want to lose our last game to get the #1 pick. MOST of us , do NOT!
There's other very good college players and at positions we need filled.
What we really needed was a good back-up quarterback/ And I think we found one in Orlovsky!      

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