Blog Entry

Sorting the Sunday Pile, Week 17: Brees for MVP?

Posted on: January 1, 2012 11:39 pm
Edited on: January 2, 2012 8:53 pm
Posted by Will Brinson

Sorting the Sunday Pile takes all of Sunday's NFL action, figures out the winners and losers and asks the big questions. Send your complaints, questions and comments to Will Brinson on Twitter. Listen to the Pick-Six Podcast Week 17 recap below and don't forget to
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Drew Brees for MVP?

Over the next month, until the MVP is announced before the Super Bowl, there's going to be an intense debate about whether or not Drew Brees' incredible hot streak to close out the season vaulted him past Aaron Rodgers for the MVP award.

Four weeks ago, this wasn't a debate. Even with Brees having a monster year, the Packers were undefeated and Rodgers was eviscerating defenses on a weekly basis.

Their numbers were close enough to tell anyone suggesting a debate to kindly close their piehole.

Now? Well it's a lot closer than it was. The numbers (below) make that much obvious even though the actual premises behind the argument are just frustrating from the sense of measuring a season by its full extent.

Comp % Pass Yards
Pass TDs INT
Aaron Rodgers
68.3 4,643 45 6 14-1
Drew Brees
71.2 5,476 46 14 13-3

The bigger problem for Rodgers may be a confluence of events around 4:00pm ET Sunday afternoon: as Brees was throwing his fifth touchdown pass (hey, just one more than Rodgers!), Packers backup Matt Flynn was going absolutely bananas against the Lions, slicing up Detroit's secondary for six touchdowns and 480 yards, a Packers franchise record.

Take a look at the list of the guys who've thrown for six teeters in a game since the merger. Spoiler alert: it's short, and full of awesome quarterbacks.

Flynn's on the list now and as a result, he's blatantly going to cost Rodgers a ton of "Well if the backup can do that" votes, while Brees staying in much longer than needed against the Panthers netted him a significant boost in the eyes of "What have you done for me lately?" voters.

But let's get one thing out of the way first: Aaron Rodgers is not a "system quarterback." Yeah, there's actually a debate raging as to whether he is or not. And if you believe that Rodgers is only successful because of the Packers "system" then you're as foolish as anyone who thought Tom Brady was a system quarterback when Matt Cassel had a big year filling in for the Patriots.

Every team has a "system" on offense and some -- the Packers and Patriots stand out -- are better than others. But Flynn's a good quarterback who's succeeded before (he nearly beat the Patriots in prime time last year), has a great pedigree (BCS title anyone?) and has spent multiple years working behind Rodgers. That's not going to make him worse. There's a reason the Packers, winners of 21 of 22 games since LAST Christmas, have him on the roster. And it's not because he makes a mean gumbo.

Look, less than two weeks ago, Rodgers carved up a very (very) good Bears defense on Christmas night. All season long he commanded the Packers offense like a conductor, made ridiculous throws that no one else in the NFL can make and generally let the world pencil his name in for MVP. 

His season's been so magnificent that it's somehow getting railroaded by the Packers losing to the Chiefs late (but don't forget, the Saints lost to the Rams and, uh, the Packers), sitting out Week 17 (a smart move with homefield clinched) and Sean Payton and Brees running up the score in order to break records (which is fine, but let's call it what it is).

There's no question that Drew Brees is a viable MVP candidate. He's had an all-time season in 2011. But judging the MVP race based on a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately attitude is shortsighted, and it diminishes the incredible season Rodgers had in Green Bay.


Tom Coughlin: Coughlin won the NFC East, despite sitting on the hot seat most of the season, and the Giants suddenly have a look of a team that could absolutely be a playoff sleeper. They can rush the passer mercilessly when they get hot, Victor Cruz is turning into a salsa-dancing monster and Eli Manning's smoking hot right now. Given the success wild-card teams have had in recent years -- hello, 2007 Giants! -- it would be foolish to count them out.

Maurice Jones-Drew:
"Mojo" ripped off a season-high 169 rushing yards on Sunday against Indy. That not only gave him the NFL rushing title for 2011, but also gave him the Jaguars single-season record for rushing yards, as he broke Fred Taylor's previous high of 1,572 in 2003. In a very dismal season for Jacksonville's offense, MJD's been an absolute workhorse. He's up there with Tony Boselli, Fred Taylor and Jimmy Smith in terms of all-time greats for the Jaguars.

Jason Taylor
: The only way Taylor's exit -- as a Dolphin, on the shoulders of his teammates after taking down the Jets -- could have been better is if the fumble he returned for a touchdown wasn't overturned. Taylor's a classy dude, a gamer, a hell of a dancer and at sixth all-time on the sack-leader list (not to mention a media favorite!), he'll find his way into Canton. Awesome career.

Matt Flynn: As noted above, Flynn had a decent day on Sunday. That's going to translate well when he becomes an unrestricted free agent and potentially becomes the most desirable quarterback on the market. There are lots of teams that need a quarterback and Flynn will be on everyone's radar just as much as Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck. If someone falls in love with him, he might get Kevin Kolb money.

Cincinnati Bengals: Nothing like losing and still ending up in the winner's column, huh? The Bengals played the Ravens well on Sunday but Ray Rice was too much for them. Fortunately, KC beat Denver (or, if you prefer, San Diego beat Oakland) and the Bengals backed their way into a playoff matchup against a Texans team that will either start T.J. Yates or Jake Delhomme.

Sanchez is no lock for the Big Apple in 2012. (AP)


Mark Sanchez: The Jets never even got a shot at backdooring their way into the playoffs, as Sanchez picked apart his own offense and gave the Dolphins nine points off of three interceptions, two of which were to defensive lineman Randy Starks. It wouldn't ultimately matter, because the Titans won and eliminated Rex Ryan's crew, but anyone who justified Sanchez' performance with the old "He just wins!" argument has packed up their shanty and moved to Denver to make that argument. He didn't play like a $14 million quarterback this year -- even though he got paid like one -- and it would almost be surprising if the Jets didn't make a swap at the position.

Detroit Lions: They haven't won at Lambeau since 1991 now, dropping a mind-blowing 20 consecutive games at the Packers homefield. Of course, that's not why they're on this list, although it doesn't help. They're on this list because they just gave up 480 passing yards to the Packers backup and losing in Green Bay (coupled with Atlanta rumbling over the Bucs) means Detroit's next game will be in New Orleans. Against Drew Brees. You should go ahead and put your mortgage on the over.

Raheem Morris: I'm hesitant to include Morris because I'm pretty sure he'll have already been fired by time I hit publish. I mean, if there was ever a time not to let your opponent get out to a 42-0 lead it's definitely the final game of the season when you're riding a nine-game losing streak and barely clinging to your job.

Rob Ryan: Dallas looked absolutely flat early on Sunday night and somehow managed to storm back on the Giants, only to have the secondary shredded by Eli Manning when they cut the lead to seven points. Ryan's defense hasn't backed up his mouth all season long and even though you want your coach to make better late-game decisions and you don't want your quarterback turning the ball over late, there

John Elway: Kyle Orton didn't do anything crazy like throw for 500 yards to beat the Broncos on Sunday, but they win that game against Tyler Palko. Not that it mattered, because the Broncos made the playoffs anyway when the Chargers topped the Raiders. But Elway put himself in the position to miss the postseason by releasing Orton and even if it helped the team's chemistry they're barely hanging on right now and look like a lock for a first-round exit.

The Big Questions

The Broncos didn't exactly storm into the playoffs. (AP)

1. Is the Tim Tebow magic finally gone?
It just might be. The Broncos still made the playoffs, of course, and anything can happen once you get to the postseason. But Denver limped their way there, backing into a title at 8-8 on a three-game skid. Teams seem to have figured out that playing press-man coverage against Tebow severely limits what he can do on offense (he's much better at picking apart zones and makes fewer mistakes) and Denver proved that if they can't generate turnovers, they're in trouble. It's hard to imagine them beating the Steelers, even at home.

2. Who's the AFC favorite going forward?
The Ravens are my pick. They get homefield up to the AFC Championship and only lose it then if they have to play the Patriots. They've beaten the Bengals twice and they've beaten the Steelers twice. They've beaten New England in New England in the playoffs before, and the Pats have no defense. And the Ravens are nightmare matchups in Baltimore for Houston and Denver, neither of whom can keep pace if the Ravens start scoring.

3. How about the NFC?
Say what you want about how hot the Saints are -- and they are white hot -- but the Packers are still the favorites. They've got homefield throughout, they have two weeks to rest their starters and they can score on anyone. One bad week against the Chiefs does not a 15-1 team unseat. Their defense isn't great, but few teams do have a good defense and if they matchup against New Orleans in the NFC Championship Game, it's going down at Lambeau Field.

4. Who're the most dangerous non-playoff teams in 2012?
Eagles, Panthers and Chargers for me. The Snooze Buttons finished 8-8 and if they'd had a full offseason, they might have won the NFC East. Their dominant defense down the stretch is reason for optimism if you're an Eagles fan. Carolina needs defense, but they suffered an insane amount of injury-related attrition in 2011 and if they draft all defense and get healthy, they can contend in the NFC South. Plus: Cam Newton. And the Bolts showed this year they could be as good as playoff teams but just made stupid mistakes. A new coach could clear those problems up.

5. Any chance Jerry Jones changes his mind on Jason Garrett?
Jones has been incredibly supportive of Garrett so probably not. But someone's taking the fall for the Cowboys not making the playoffs and the best guess here is that it's Rob Ryan. He runs his mouth constantly and his defense doesn't back up all the talk -- their secondary got absolutely shredded by Eli Manning right after they got back into the game Sunday night.

6. What is Stevie Johnson thinking with his celebrations?

He's not thinking, actually. Johnson's scheduled to be a free agent in what's a really, really deep wide receiver class in 2012 and reportedly wants $7.5 million. The only problem is he's now developed a stigma for dropping really important catches and oftentimes costing his teams 15 yards with penalties like he did on Sunday. Wishing everyone "Happy New Years!" is a cool thing to do ... when it's not bad for your job and you're looking for a raise. Johnson's one of the most fun and interesting guys in the NFL but he has to be smarter than that.

7. How smart do the Steelers look for that Santonio Holmes trade now?
You don't even know the half of it. Not only did the dump a guy who's clearly a locker room distraction (Holmes) and not LaDainian Tomlinson-approved as a captain, but Pittsburgh allowed Mike Wallace to emerge as one of the best wideouts in the game and let someone else (the Jets) pick up the tab for Holmes' long-term deal. Oh, and in case you didn't know, they used the pick they got from the Jets to draft 2011 breakout wide receiver Antonio Brown

8. Should my team draft a running back early this year?
Negative, ghostrider, the pattern is full. Full of guys who weren't drafted in the first round leading the league in rushing anyway.

2011 Rush Yards
2011 Rush YPG
2011 Rush TDs
2011 YPC
Maurice Jones-Drew
1,606 100.4 8 4.7 2006/2/60th
LeSean McCoy
1,309 87.3 17 4.8 2009/2/53rd
Arian Foster
1,224 94.2 10 4.4 2009/None/UFA
Frank Gore
1,211 75.7 8 4.3 2008/2/55
Ray Rice
1,173 78.2 10 4.4 2005/3/65

This doesn't mean teams should avoid drafting someone who's a special talent in college (see: Adrian Peterson) but there's a real sweet spot developing in the draft for undersized, pass-catching running backs (go ahead and add in Jamaal Charles too) who turn out to be a lot better than where they were drafted.

9. How's that Carson Palmer trade working out now?
Not so good. The Raiders could have arguably won the trade if they made the playoffs. All they had to do was beat a downtrodden Chargers team at home and they couldn't, so they miss the postseason and give up a first-round pick and a second-round pick to the Bengals (who made the playoffs, naturally). With Palmer, the Raiders were 6-4 and he threw 13 touchdowns and 16 picks. Whoops. Add in the fact that Hue Jackson just coached the most-penalized team in NFL history and he has some explaining to do.

10. Is Romeo Crennel the Chiefs next head coach?
Hard to imagine he's not. KC finished 6-9 on the season and two of those wins were with Crennel in charge; they also nearly beat Oakland in Week 16 too. Surely Scott Pioli thinks that with Crennel in charge this season and better injury luck the Chiefs would've won the division. He might be right, actually, and that's why Crennel will get the gig.

11. How many records did the Saints break on Sunday?
Eleventy billion or thereabouts. Brees and Sean Payton were basically rubber-stamping their signatures all over the NFL's offensive record books. They set the record for points scored in a season, most points scored at home in a season, most passing yards in a season (Brees' own record), best completion percentage in a season (again, Brees'), most completions in a season, most all-purpose yards in a single season (Darren Sproles owns it) and most receiving yards by a tight end in a season (only Rob Gronkowski broke that one a little while later). I can't confirm it, but I'm pretty sure the Saints broke the record for most broken records as well.


Bryan Braman is going to get fined for a helmet-to-helmet hit that he made ... without a helmet.

Worth 1,000 Words

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Since: Sep 27, 2006
Posted on: January 3, 2012 7:36 am

Sorting the Sunday Pile, Week 17: Brees for MVP?

Agreed. Both are great qb's, and both are deserving. I know rule changes are helping offenses, but Rodgers, Brees, and Brady are fun to watch. All three of these men stack up with the all time greats.

Since: Apr 25, 2008
Posted on: January 3, 2012 4:41 am

Sorting the Sunday Pile, Week 17: Brees for MVP?

Brees or Rogers? Coin flip. Both awesome. Brady or Manning (healthy)? Coin flip. Enjoy some awesome QB play.

Since: Apr 25, 2008
Posted on: January 3, 2012 4:37 am

Sorting the Sunday Pile, Week 17: Brees for MVP?

People are talking about Flynn doing well because of the system. Maybe. Haven't there been quite a few backups over the years that have done well with one team and still done well with another? Recent examples I can think of are Hasslebeck, Schaub, and Cassel. Bust, Kolb (so far) even though he plays with Fitzgerald. Before you give me a hard time about Cassel, he was in the pro bowl last year wasn't he? A lot has to do with who you're playing with too. Would a guy that is made for a vertical offense do well in a west coast scheme? Maybe. There are just so many variables out there that it's difficult to know if quarterbacks can or will succeed with other teams. There's systems, other players, and chemistry. Some players just do better playing in new cities too. Brees was good in SD, but he's awesome in NO. Would Rogers be as good as he is now if he had to deal with all of the different offense coordinators in SF? Would Alex Smith be MVP candidate in Green Bay? There's just too many questions to ask. I just sit back and enjoy watching the game.

Since: Jul 18, 2008
Posted on: January 3, 2012 2:34 am

what you don't get

there have been several mvp's that haven't had the best stats.  but based on several of your given criteria's, neither rodgers nor brees should be the mvp.  it would be peyton manning.  what happened to that team, if you wanna go by how badly a team needs a player, peyton is hands down, bar none, most valuable to his team.

stat-wise, you can make an argument for either.  you can't make an argument that brees ran up the stats unless you account for the ton of time he sat out or how marino got his record.  i didn't hear the uproar when bellichek kept the pat's passing and running up the score when brady purposely went after peyton manning's td record either.  maybe it's bc people consider bellichek a jerk and put it on him giving brady a pass cuz he's the golden boy.

value-wise, between the two, it's brees.  he's worth more to the team, the city, the region than rodgers will ever be.  you can give rodgers the mvp.  it's not undeserved.  he might even have arguably had the better year.  but the saints have the most valuable person.  no question about it.

Since: Jul 1, 2010
Posted on: January 3, 2012 12:51 am

Sorting the Sunday Pile, Week 17: Brees for MVP?

Nobody doubts the gift Rodgers brings, but he doesn't deserve the MVP, Brees does

So because Flynn (who Rodgers was calling the calls for during the whole 1st half) had 1 hell of a game you say Rodgers DOESN'T DESERVE to be mvp? Your an idiot there both worthy but to say one doesn't deserve it over the other is idiotic.

Since: Sep 22, 2009
Posted on: January 3, 2012 12:37 am

Sorting the Sunday Pile, Week 17: Brees for MVP?

I love how people will even go so far as to shorten Marino's season to 14 games to discredit Brees's record. What's next, did Marino play with one arm? Did Brees shut down orphanages to build his training facilities?

Since: Sep 22, 2009
Posted on: January 3, 2012 12:35 am

Sorting the Sunday Pile, Week 17: Brees for MVP?

Kentucky: I don't have to look it up, I actually WATCHED the games. It amazes me to see how many people are flat out making things up in the wake of the Saints record breaking season. I saw EVERY game and watched Brees sit out numerous 4th quarters while Chase Daniels handed it off again and again. And yet somehow mor0ns claim Brees and Payton ran up the scores, keeping Brees in all the time. Some like Kentucky will flat out make up stuff when they didn't even see the games.

Since: Nov 5, 2007
Posted on: January 2, 2012 11:29 pm

Sorting the Sunday Pile, Week 17: Brees for MVP?

remember, Brees had a great year with a great running attack, a balanced offense.  He also spread the ball on avg. to 7 different receivers each game.  If you take him out, the Saints look medicore...he's the best leader in the NFL.  Flynn came in and looked like a hero in one game...people are talking about him being the next best thing.  O.K., so what does that say about Rodgers??  Nobody doubts the gift Rodgers brings, but he doesn't deserve the MVP, Brees does.  If they meet again, Saints win hands down.  If they did co-MVP in the past they should at least grant that for Brees.  The guy has deserved to go all the way to Canton, why not give him the props for best!!

Since: Dec 29, 2011
Posted on: January 2, 2012 11:18 pm

Sorting the Sunday Pile, Week 17: Brees for MVP?

No, actually it doesn't make me think, it makes me sick.  Seriously, that is simply awful to write about Brady and Brees.  Your words are inflamatory, unfounded and disgraceful.  Look over these gentlemen's records and you will see that they are masters at their craft, just as Rodger's is.
Please tell me the world has not become this jaded... 

Since: Jan 16, 2007
Posted on: January 2, 2012 10:17 pm

Sorting the Sunday Pile, Week 17: Brees for MVP?

So a pass of under 9 yards is a short pass and a pass over 9 yards is a long pass? Don't forget to account for Rodgers fumbles.

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