Blog Entry

Sorting the Sunday Pile, Week 17: Brees for MVP?

Posted on: January 1, 2012 11:39 pm
Edited on: January 2, 2012 8:53 pm
 
Posted by Will Brinson


Sorting the Sunday Pile takes all of Sunday's NFL action, figures out the winners and losers and asks the big questions. Send your complaints, questions and comments to Will Brinson on Twitter. Listen to the Pick-Six Podcast Week 17 recap below and don't forget to
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Drew Brees for MVP?

Over the next month, until the MVP is announced before the Super Bowl, there's going to be an intense debate about whether or not Drew Brees' incredible hot streak to close out the season vaulted him past Aaron Rodgers for the MVP award.

Four weeks ago, this wasn't a debate. Even with Brees having a monster year, the Packers were undefeated and Rodgers was eviscerating defenses on a weekly basis.

Their numbers were close enough to tell anyone suggesting a debate to kindly close their piehole.

Now? Well it's a lot closer than it was. The numbers (below) make that much obvious even though the actual premises behind the argument are just frustrating from the sense of measuring a season by its full extent.

Player
Comp % Pass Yards
Pass TDs INT
W-L
Aaron Rodgers
68.3 4,643 45 6 14-1
Drew Brees
71.2 5,476 46 14 13-3

The bigger problem for Rodgers may be a confluence of events around 4:00pm ET Sunday afternoon: as Brees was throwing his fifth touchdown pass (hey, just one more than Rodgers!), Packers backup Matt Flynn was going absolutely bananas against the Lions, slicing up Detroit's secondary for six touchdowns and 480 yards, a Packers franchise record.

Take a look at the list of the guys who've thrown for six teeters in a game since the merger. Spoiler alert: it's short, and full of awesome quarterbacks.

Flynn's on the list now and as a result, he's blatantly going to cost Rodgers a ton of "Well if the backup can do that" votes, while Brees staying in much longer than needed against the Panthers netted him a significant boost in the eyes of "What have you done for me lately?" voters.

But let's get one thing out of the way first: Aaron Rodgers is not a "system quarterback." Yeah, there's actually a debate raging as to whether he is or not. And if you believe that Rodgers is only successful because of the Packers "system" then you're as foolish as anyone who thought Tom Brady was a system quarterback when Matt Cassel had a big year filling in for the Patriots.

Every team has a "system" on offense and some -- the Packers and Patriots stand out -- are better than others. But Flynn's a good quarterback who's succeeded before (he nearly beat the Patriots in prime time last year), has a great pedigree (BCS title anyone?) and has spent multiple years working behind Rodgers. That's not going to make him worse. There's a reason the Packers, winners of 21 of 22 games since LAST Christmas, have him on the roster. And it's not because he makes a mean gumbo.

Look, less than two weeks ago, Rodgers carved up a very (very) good Bears defense on Christmas night. All season long he commanded the Packers offense like a conductor, made ridiculous throws that no one else in the NFL can make and generally let the world pencil his name in for MVP. 

His season's been so magnificent that it's somehow getting railroaded by the Packers losing to the Chiefs late (but don't forget, the Saints lost to the Rams and, uh, the Packers), sitting out Week 17 (a smart move with homefield clinched) and Sean Payton and Brees running up the score in order to break records (which is fine, but let's call it what it is).

There's no question that Drew Brees is a viable MVP candidate. He's had an all-time season in 2011. But judging the MVP race based on a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately attitude is shortsighted, and it diminishes the incredible season Rodgers had in Green Bay.

Winners

Tom Coughlin: Coughlin won the NFC East, despite sitting on the hot seat most of the season, and the Giants suddenly have a look of a team that could absolutely be a playoff sleeper. They can rush the passer mercilessly when they get hot, Victor Cruz is turning into a salsa-dancing monster and Eli Manning's smoking hot right now. Given the success wild-card teams have had in recent years -- hello, 2007 Giants! -- it would be foolish to count them out.

Maurice Jones-Drew:
"Mojo" ripped off a season-high 169 rushing yards on Sunday against Indy. That not only gave him the NFL rushing title for 2011, but also gave him the Jaguars single-season record for rushing yards, as he broke Fred Taylor's previous high of 1,572 in 2003. In a very dismal season for Jacksonville's offense, MJD's been an absolute workhorse. He's up there with Tony Boselli, Fred Taylor and Jimmy Smith in terms of all-time greats for the Jaguars.

Jason Taylor
: The only way Taylor's exit -- as a Dolphin, on the shoulders of his teammates after taking down the Jets -- could have been better is if the fumble he returned for a touchdown wasn't overturned. Taylor's a classy dude, a gamer, a hell of a dancer and at sixth all-time on the sack-leader list (not to mention a media favorite!), he'll find his way into Canton. Awesome career.

Matt Flynn: As noted above, Flynn had a decent day on Sunday. That's going to translate well when he becomes an unrestricted free agent and potentially becomes the most desirable quarterback on the market. There are lots of teams that need a quarterback and Flynn will be on everyone's radar just as much as Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck. If someone falls in love with him, he might get Kevin Kolb money.

Cincinnati Bengals: Nothing like losing and still ending up in the winner's column, huh? The Bengals played the Ravens well on Sunday but Ray Rice was too much for them. Fortunately, KC beat Denver (or, if you prefer, San Diego beat Oakland) and the Bengals backed their way into a playoff matchup against a Texans team that will either start T.J. Yates or Jake Delhomme.

Sanchez is no lock for the Big Apple in 2012. (AP)

Losers

Mark Sanchez: The Jets never even got a shot at backdooring their way into the playoffs, as Sanchez picked apart his own offense and gave the Dolphins nine points off of three interceptions, two of which were to defensive lineman Randy Starks. It wouldn't ultimately matter, because the Titans won and eliminated Rex Ryan's crew, but anyone who justified Sanchez' performance with the old "He just wins!" argument has packed up their shanty and moved to Denver to make that argument. He didn't play like a $14 million quarterback this year -- even though he got paid like one -- and it would almost be surprising if the Jets didn't make a swap at the position.

Detroit Lions: They haven't won at Lambeau since 1991 now, dropping a mind-blowing 20 consecutive games at the Packers homefield. Of course, that's not why they're on this list, although it doesn't help. They're on this list because they just gave up 480 passing yards to the Packers backup and losing in Green Bay (coupled with Atlanta rumbling over the Bucs) means Detroit's next game will be in New Orleans. Against Drew Brees. You should go ahead and put your mortgage on the over.

Raheem Morris: I'm hesitant to include Morris because I'm pretty sure he'll have already been fired by time I hit publish. I mean, if there was ever a time not to let your opponent get out to a 42-0 lead it's definitely the final game of the season when you're riding a nine-game losing streak and barely clinging to your job.

Rob Ryan: Dallas looked absolutely flat early on Sunday night and somehow managed to storm back on the Giants, only to have the secondary shredded by Eli Manning when they cut the lead to seven points. Ryan's defense hasn't backed up his mouth all season long and even though you want your coach to make better late-game decisions and you don't want your quarterback turning the ball over late, there

John Elway: Kyle Orton didn't do anything crazy like throw for 500 yards to beat the Broncos on Sunday, but they win that game against Tyler Palko. Not that it mattered, because the Broncos made the playoffs anyway when the Chargers topped the Raiders. But Elway put himself in the position to miss the postseason by releasing Orton and even if it helped the team's chemistry they're barely hanging on right now and look like a lock for a first-round exit.

The Big Questions

 
The Broncos didn't exactly storm into the playoffs. (AP)

1. Is the Tim Tebow magic finally gone?
It just might be. The Broncos still made the playoffs, of course, and anything can happen once you get to the postseason. But Denver limped their way there, backing into a title at 8-8 on a three-game skid. Teams seem to have figured out that playing press-man coverage against Tebow severely limits what he can do on offense (he's much better at picking apart zones and makes fewer mistakes) and Denver proved that if they can't generate turnovers, they're in trouble. It's hard to imagine them beating the Steelers, even at home.

2. Who's the AFC favorite going forward?
The Ravens are my pick. They get homefield up to the AFC Championship and only lose it then if they have to play the Patriots. They've beaten the Bengals twice and they've beaten the Steelers twice. They've beaten New England in New England in the playoffs before, and the Pats have no defense. And the Ravens are nightmare matchups in Baltimore for Houston and Denver, neither of whom can keep pace if the Ravens start scoring.

3. How about the NFC?
Say what you want about how hot the Saints are -- and they are white hot -- but the Packers are still the favorites. They've got homefield throughout, they have two weeks to rest their starters and they can score on anyone. One bad week against the Chiefs does not a 15-1 team unseat. Their defense isn't great, but few teams do have a good defense and if they matchup against New Orleans in the NFC Championship Game, it's going down at Lambeau Field.

4. Who're the most dangerous non-playoff teams in 2012?
Eagles, Panthers and Chargers for me. The Snooze Buttons finished 8-8 and if they'd had a full offseason, they might have won the NFC East. Their dominant defense down the stretch is reason for optimism if you're an Eagles fan. Carolina needs defense, but they suffered an insane amount of injury-related attrition in 2011 and if they draft all defense and get healthy, they can contend in the NFC South. Plus: Cam Newton. And the Bolts showed this year they could be as good as playoff teams but just made stupid mistakes. A new coach could clear those problems up.

5. Any chance Jerry Jones changes his mind on Jason Garrett?
Jones has been incredibly supportive of Garrett so probably not. But someone's taking the fall for the Cowboys not making the playoffs and the best guess here is that it's Rob Ryan. He runs his mouth constantly and his defense doesn't back up all the talk -- their secondary got absolutely shredded by Eli Manning right after they got back into the game Sunday night.

6. What is Stevie Johnson thinking with his celebrations?

He's not thinking, actually. Johnson's scheduled to be a free agent in what's a really, really deep wide receiver class in 2012 and reportedly wants $7.5 million. The only problem is he's now developed a stigma for dropping really important catches and oftentimes costing his teams 15 yards with penalties like he did on Sunday. Wishing everyone "Happy New Years!" is a cool thing to do ... when it's not bad for your job and you're looking for a raise. Johnson's one of the most fun and interesting guys in the NFL but he has to be smarter than that.

7. How smart do the Steelers look for that Santonio Holmes trade now?
You don't even know the half of it. Not only did the dump a guy who's clearly a locker room distraction (Holmes) and not LaDainian Tomlinson-approved as a captain, but Pittsburgh allowed Mike Wallace to emerge as one of the best wideouts in the game and let someone else (the Jets) pick up the tab for Holmes' long-term deal. Oh, and in case you didn't know, they used the pick they got from the Jets to draft 2011 breakout wide receiver Antonio Brown

8. Should my team draft a running back early this year?
Negative, ghostrider, the pattern is full. Full of guys who weren't drafted in the first round leading the league in rushing anyway.

Player
2011 Rush Yards
2011 Rush YPG
2011 Rush TDs
2011 YPC
Year/Round/Pick
Maurice Jones-Drew
1,606 100.4 8 4.7 2006/2/60th
LeSean McCoy
1,309 87.3 17 4.8 2009/2/53rd
Arian Foster
1,224 94.2 10 4.4 2009/None/UFA
Frank Gore
1,211 75.7 8 4.3 2008/2/55
Ray Rice
1,173 78.2 10 4.4 2005/3/65

This doesn't mean teams should avoid drafting someone who's a special talent in college (see: Adrian Peterson) but there's a real sweet spot developing in the draft for undersized, pass-catching running backs (go ahead and add in Jamaal Charles too) who turn out to be a lot better than where they were drafted.

9. How's that Carson Palmer trade working out now?
Not so good. The Raiders could have arguably won the trade if they made the playoffs. All they had to do was beat a downtrodden Chargers team at home and they couldn't, so they miss the postseason and give up a first-round pick and a second-round pick to the Bengals (who made the playoffs, naturally). With Palmer, the Raiders were 6-4 and he threw 13 touchdowns and 16 picks. Whoops. Add in the fact that Hue Jackson just coached the most-penalized team in NFL history and he has some explaining to do.

10. Is Romeo Crennel the Chiefs next head coach?
Hard to imagine he's not. KC finished 6-9 on the season and two of those wins were with Crennel in charge; they also nearly beat Oakland in Week 16 too. Surely Scott Pioli thinks that with Crennel in charge this season and better injury luck the Chiefs would've won the division. He might be right, actually, and that's why Crennel will get the gig.

11. How many records did the Saints break on Sunday?
Eleventy billion or thereabouts. Brees and Sean Payton were basically rubber-stamping their signatures all over the NFL's offensive record books. They set the record for points scored in a season, most points scored at home in a season, most passing yards in a season (Brees' own record), best completion percentage in a season (again, Brees'), most completions in a season, most all-purpose yards in a single season (Darren Sproles owns it) and most receiving yards by a tight end in a season (only Rob Gronkowski broke that one a little while later). I can't confirm it, but I'm pretty sure the Saints broke the record for most broken records as well.

GIF O' THE WEEK

Bryan Braman is going to get fined for a helmet-to-helmet hit that he made ... without a helmet.

Worth 1,000 Words


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Comments

Since: Jan 2, 2012
Posted on: January 2, 2012 3:19 pm
 

Sorting the Sunday Pile, Week 17: Brees for MVP?

First, the Saints did not run up the score on any team this year.  They destroyed numerous teams, and dropped 40 points on teams just like it was another day at the office.  As a few of the other posts have pointed out, Brees sat out the most or all of the 4th quarter in a few games.  His statistics are the biproduct of an unbelievable work ethic, his intelligence and the brilliant offense the Saints run.  Brees is an MVP- PERIOD.  Whether he wins the actual award is possibly another story.  Rodgers had a great year, and 15 wins is impressive.  But, the Packers can and did win without Rodgers.  The Saints won 13 games, and without Brees, that number might have been 2 or 3.  That means he is the most valuable player to his team, and the numbers Brees posted this year indicate he had the best season of any quarterback ever.  How can that not result in him being named MVP?   



Since: Oct 15, 2011
Posted on: January 2, 2012 2:53 pm
 

Sorting the Sunday Pile, Week 17: Brees for MVP?

It couldn't be more obvious than it is today that Brees is the MVP.  Rogers sits and Flynn plays better than Rogers ever has.  If Brees were taken out of the equation the Saints would be the Colts of the NFC.  Lets hope the voters can get this right.



Since: Oct 15, 2011
Posted on: January 2, 2012 2:53 pm
 

Sorting the Sunday Pile, Week 17: Brees for MVP?

It couldn't be more obvious than it is today that Brees is the MVP.  Rogers sits and Flynn plays better than Rogers ever has.  If Brees were taken out of the equation the Saints would be the Colts of the NFC.  Lets hope the voters can get this right.



Since: Oct 15, 2011
Posted on: January 2, 2012 2:53 pm
 

Sorting the Sunday Pile, Week 17: Brees for MVP?

It couldn't be more obvious than it is today that Brees is the MVP.  Rogers sits and Flynn plays better than Rogers ever has.  If Brees were taken out of the equation the Saints would be the Colts of the NFC.  Lets hope the voters can get this right.



Since: Sep 22, 2009
Posted on: January 2, 2012 2:21 pm
 

Sorting the Sunday Pile, Week 17: Brees for MVP?

"Sean Payton and Brees running up the score in order to break records (which is fine, but let's call it what it is)." Really? They ran up the score to break records? When exactly? Because I recall Brees sitting out multiple 4th quarters and the Saints running the ball for dozens of plays at a time. How is that running up the score to break records? The only time they really were going for a record was the 30 yards Brees needed to break Marinos record, and that was about YARDS not POINTS. The TD was completely a byproduct of the yards. Somehow 30 yards got translated into Brees and Payton running up scores. They shut down the team in the fourth of the Indy game and STILL scored touchdowns, with Brees on the BENCH and Chase Daniels handing the ball off EVERY play for an entire quarter. That's running up the score? Clueless. Appearently someone didn't actually WATCH the games, just looked at the scores. In all of the blowouts they shut it down at the start of the fourth. Otherwise the records would be even more astronomical than they already are.



Since: Jul 10, 2010
Posted on: January 2, 2012 10:38 am
 

Sorting the Sunday Pile, Week 17: Brees for MVP?

As a fan of both QB's, this is probably the season of the co-MVP. They both deserve it and it would be a crime to overlook what either player has done. All the arguments of one over the other are ridiculous. This probably won't happen, but it should.



Since: Aug 5, 2008
Posted on: January 2, 2012 10:02 am
 

Sorting the Sunday Pile, Week 17: Brees for MVP?

Brees definitely MVP!!!!




Since: Jan 2, 2012
Posted on: January 2, 2012 8:37 am
 

Brees Just As Worthy

Aaron Rodgers may be the strongest candidate for league MVP but he is NOT the "clear" MVP. The only way you can arrive @ that is to diminish what Drew Brees' has accomplished this season.

First of all, Dan Marino compiled his 5084 yards passing in 16 games, not 14 as you claim. (The NFL went to a 16-game season in 1978, six years BEFORE Marino set his record). Brees actually broke Marino's record in 15 games.

Second of all, Brees has not just broken Marino's 27-year old record, he has SHATTERED it by 392 yards.

Third, Marino's record was good enough to win him a league MVP award even though he was not the best player on the best team that year (that would have been Joe Montana of the 15-1 San Francisco 49ers).

Yes, Rodgers has had an amazing year but it is only "clearly" better than Brees' if you compare their final passer ratings and forget about touchdowns, completion percentage, yardage, etc. The QB passer rating is just one way to measure QBs, and maybe not even the most important one. Brett Favre, for example, did not have the league's best QB rating in ANY of his three MVP-winning seasons. (Do you even know what the formula for the QB passer rating is?)
And how, exactly, do great seasons by two other QBs "take away from what Brees did"? Especially when Rodgers was NOT one of those QBs? And how, exactly, does Rodgers improve his MVP claims by sitting out the final game of the 2011 season? Yes, it was smart for the Packers to rest him but Rodgers wasn't sitting out the Lions game because "he is not about personal gain or breaking records". The Packers just didn't have anything to play for while the Saints - as long as there was a chance that the Niners might lose their final game - needed everything Brees could give them.

Rodgers has had a brilliant season and could easily win the MVP this year. But Brees, I think, is every bit as worthy.




Since: Aug 18, 2006
Posted on: January 2, 2012 6:46 am
 

Sorting the Sunday Pile, Week 17: Brees for MVP?

Two things- Brees sat out the fourth quarter, or most of the fourth quarter, in a number of games.  I'd hardly call that running up numbers for personal gain.

Marino set his record in 1984.  The NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978. 



Since: Jan 2, 2012
Posted on: January 2, 2012 2:32 am
 

RODGERS CLEAR MVP

I am sorry but your article left out some very important information. Aaron rodgers 2011 season is considered the greatest season by a quarterback there are maybe one or two qbs that have equaled it. You did not mention rodgers 122.5 quarterback rating which measures a quarterback. This rating is the highest in the history of the nfl. Rodgers has done all of this with one of the worst defenses in the NFL, one of worst running games and one of the worst rated o-lines. Rodgers has played 7 quarters less than Brees and been sacked much more. Brees also threw more than rodgers the last I checked it was 120 more passes, had rodgers ran up scores for personal gain like brees im sure he would have crushed brees's yards. He also has a better record and led his team to 13-0 on his back.  Comparing game to game rodgers is better than brees. You did nail one thing though and that is brees and shawn payton ran up brees stats all year every chance they could. This is somthing rodgers and mcarthy never did. Rodgers has done more with less and has been better period.

What upsets me as a fan of all teams is that people are so stuck on the little things. I think brees breaking marinos record is cool and amazing however marino did this with a 14 game season. Also 3 qbs hit 5000 yards this year which I think takes away from what brees did. I also am sure that in the future 5000 yards will become average. I will compare brees records this season to rodgers 122.5 passer rating any day of the week.

Another aspect people do not understand is MVP is about value not just stats. Toss out both players stats even though rodgers has better in my opinion and that can be argued both ways. Look at the value look what rodgers accomplished with his team i hate to say it but the packers rankings are much lower than the saints in the areas that reflect on the quarterbacks accomplishments. I think you also have to look at coming from a superbowl and superbowl mvp 19 game winning streak and the complete dominance of the nfl. All brees did was throw a ton of yards and for some reason people think that in itself is worthy of the mvp. Does anyone remember 2007 when favre broke the all time tds record and yards guess what.... he didnt win mvp that year brady did because he was more valuable to the patriots. All day long rodgers 45 tds to 6 ints and 122.5 4600 yards 14-1 or 15-1 record less playing time and worse o lines,defense and running game placing it all on rodgers ability... Thats MVP I really think flynn deserves credit for the big game but that doesnt take away from aaron flynn is talented on his own and Im sure rodgers would have easily tossed 6 tds as well against the lions awful defensive game, but he didnt because he is not about personal gain or breaking records.

Rodgers is MVP Brees can tie but not take that away. Give brees votes and brady and I even think Jones Drew. But 12 takes it


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