Blog Entry

Film Room: Broncos vs. Steelers wild-card preview

Posted on: January 6, 2012 9:32 am
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Posted by Eye on Football Analyst Andy Benoit


It hardly seems fair that a 12-win team has to go on the road to face an eight-win team, but the NFL’s playoff seeding system is designed to reward division champions. That includes the rare division champion that enters the postseason on a three-game losing streak.

Here’s a breakdown of what many expect to be a massacre.


1. Broncos offense has no prayer
We covered everything there is to know about the Broncos’ offense last week in preparation for their Week 17 bout with the Chiefs. Nothing has changed. It’s clear that press-man coverage can overwhelm Denver’s passing attack, as the receivers don’t have the quickness to separate and Tim Tebow doesn’t have the mechanics, timing or confidence to fit balls into tight windows.

It’s rare to see the zone-based Steelers play press-man coverage, though they did so with great success against the Patriots in Week 8. Usually, shutdown corner Ike Taylor (yes, SHUTDOWN corner) plays press coverage against the opposing team’s top wideout (in this case, Demaryius Thomas), while William Gay, Keenan Lewis and/or Bryant McFadden play a variation of zone on the other side.

If Dick LeBeau wants to bait Tebow into interceptions, the Steelers may still stick with their traditional approach:

This shot from Super Bowl XLV illustrates the Steelers’ traditional approach to coverage: Ike Taylor playing press-man against the opposing team’s top receiver (Greg Jennings) on one side, with the rest of the secondary playing zone on the other (you can tell it’s zone by how cornerback Bryant McFadden is lined up off the line and with his body open slightly towards the inside).

The Broncos don’t have a threatening tight end, so Tebow would be throwing into heavy zones against athletic corners. If LeBeau wants to pressure Tebow with James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley and bait him into the usual slew of incompletions, he can play man-to-man. Whatever LeBeau chooses will work; we’re talking about the league’s top-ranked pass defense against the league’s most inept passing quarterback.

Lately, Denver’s read-option run game has still produced yardage, though only because of the high volume of carries. If the Broncos couldn’t muster more than three points by running against Kansas City’s 3-4, they can’t be expected to muster ANY points running against Pittsburgh’s.

A key to Denver’s run game is getting offensive linemen clean to inside linebackers. No three-man defensive line does a better job at protecting its inside linebackers than Pittsburgh’s. That’s why Lawrence Timmons and James Farrior are able to play with their ears pinned back.

2. A roll of the dice
Because it feels a little too simplistic to declare the Broncos’ chances at moving the ball to be zero (even if they are), we’ll use this section to present creative ideas for how the Broncos might – MIGHT – manage to muster a semblance of offense on Sunday.

The first idea is to just throw deep and hope luck tilts your way (a cornerback falls down, a ref calls pass interference, two Steelers collide while going after the same easy interception, etc.). Don’t count on Denver doing this, though. It goes against everything John Fox has stood for since turning to Tebow, and it also requires that, you know, Tebow actually throw downfield accurately.

Another idea is to draw up trick plays. Lots of trick plays. Problem is, a defense as experienced and disciplined as Pittsburgh’s is not going to bite. You might make chance-taker Troy Polamalu pay for a gamble once or twice, but more likely he’ll make YOU pay even more for YOUR gamble.

A third (and stronger) idea is to run the ball outside. In the past, outside running was guaranteed to fail against the Steelers. This season, however, Timmons and Farrior have not been as sharp in lateral run defense. That’s why Pittsburgh has struggled a bit against zone teams. The Broncos no longer have a zone run game (it left shortly after Shanahan departed), but it might not be crazy to hastily install one given that their usual approach will not work anyway.

Denver’s lack of running back speed is an issue here, but again: their usual approach will not work anyway!

3. Pittsburgh’s passing attack
As lopsided as this matchup seems, the final score could be tight given that Pittsburgh’s offense might have trouble against John Fox’s and Dennis Allen’s defense. Don’t be surprised if the Steelers come out throwing in an effort to build a quick lead that forces the Broncos to go to the air early.
 
Against the Browns last week, offensive coordinator Bruce Arians chose to spread the field with 3 x 2 empty backfield sets on passing downs. This may have been to get the ball out quickly so that Ben Roethlisberger would not have to make plays on his bum ankle. Though Roethlisberger has gotten much better in his presnap reads and sudden decision making, his natural inclination is still to extend the play. Thus, Big Ben still held the ball plenty long last week.

He won’t be able to do that this week, though – not under the same gameplan, anyway. Offensive tackles Max Starks and Marcus Gilbert may have been be able to handle Browns defensive ends Jayme Mitchell and Jabaal Sheard on an island (Sheard just barely, actually), but they won’t have a snowball’s chance against Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller.

If Roethlisberger is to buy time for his receivers downfield, his offensive tackles will need running backs and tight ends to chip-block, if not stay in completely and double-team. Something else to keep in mind: Miller, D.J. Williams and Brian Dawkins all excel as inside blitzers. Blitz pickup is an area in which the Steelers interior line, particularly left guard Chris Kemoeatu, struggles.

Brown's emerged as one of Pittsburgh's best receiving options. (Getty Images)

4. The passing matchups
Even though protection could be a problem, it’s possible the Steelers will still spread the field and let Roethlisberger run around and make plays. We’ve seen them before give up piles of sacks this way but make up for it with big plays.

The Broncos have a good secondary now that undrafted rookie Chris Harris has blossomed at nickel corner, but they’re thin and inexperienced at safety and vulnerable with Jonathan Wilhite at dime corner.

If the Broncos decide to eliminate Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh’s new No. 1 receiver) with Champ Bailey, there will be big-play opportunities for Mike Wallace against the limited-ranged safeties. If Bailey defends Wallace, Andre Goodman can spar with Brown but probably not for as long as Roethlisberger can extend the play. Chris Harris will be tested by Emmanuel Sanders’ speed, and Wilhite will have fits trying to defend Jerricho Cotchery underneath.

As much as the Broncos might like their secondary, they can’t expect it to be the league’s first unit that sustains coverage against the Steelers’ prolonged improvisational plays. Thus, when the Broncos do blitz, don’t be surprised if they bring the kitchen sink to ensure that Roethlisberger goes down or throws hot.

5. Steelers run game
Rashard Mendenhall will be missed, but the Steelers can tread water with Isaac Redman. The third-year running back doesn’t have Mendenhall’s corner-turning speed and acceleration, but in confined areas he shows looser hips than you’d guess. Where Pittsburgh’s backfield woes will really show up is in the pass game. Mewelde Moore’s absence (foot injury) leaves them without a prominent openfield dumpoff receiver.

But this is a relatively minor issue. The primary job of the Steelers’ backfield is to pound the rock when called upon, which Redman and straight-line back John Clay are capable of doing. Also, Pittsburgh’s offensive line, especially with the superb pull-blocking skills of Kemoeatu, is capable of moving the pile down the stretch.

So who will win? Check our NFL expert picks for all the wild-card games

Follow @Andy_Benoit on Twitter or contact him at Andy.Benoit-at-NFLTouchdown.com.
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Comments

Since: Jan 6, 2012
Posted on: January 6, 2012 1:49 pm
 

Film Room: Broncos vs. Steelers wild-card preview

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Since: Jul 18, 2009
Posted on: January 6, 2012 11:18 am
 

Film Room: Broncos vs. Steelers wild-card preview

AS A BRONOCS FAN (AND THEREFORE MAYBE NOT TOTALLY OBJECTIVE, THOUGH I TRY TO BE) I LIKE THIS MATCHUP SOMEWHAT. FOR ONE, THE STEELERS HAVE STRUGGLED TO SCORE POINTS IN RECENT WEEKS AGAINST TOUGH DEFENSES AND WHILE THE BRONCOS ARE NOT THE 49ERS, CLEVELAND WAS STRONG AGAINST PITT AS WELL. A LOW SCORING GAME ALWAYS GIVES YOU THE OPPORTUNITY THAT ONE PLAY, EVEN A FLUKE TYPE PLAY CAN KEEP YOU IN AND WIN YOU A GAME. SECONDLY, DENVER HAS A SOLID PASS RUSH WITH DUMERVIL AND MILLER AND WILL BEN'S MOBILITY LIMITED BY INJURY, THEY COULD CAUSE HIM SOME PROBLEMS. WHILE REDMAN IS A SOLID BACKUP, IT CAN'T HELP TO HAVE LOST MENDENHALL. I ALSO LIKE PLAYING AGAINST AN AGGRESSIVE DEFENSE LIKE PITT'S.. I THINK TROY P IS ALWAYS CAPABLE OF BEING HAD ON A PLAY JUST AS MUCH AS HE IS CAPABLE OF MAKING A BIG PLAY. DENVER COULD USE THIS AGGRESSIVENESS TO THEIR ADVANTAGE..  I DONT EXPECT A BRONCO VICTORY BECUASE THEY HAVE NOT PLAYED WELL. BUT IT IS A NEW SEASON AND THE MATCHUP MAY NOT BE AS UNFAVORABLE AS PEOPLE THINK. I HOPE FOR THE BEST AND THINK THAT THE PLAYOFFS IS A GOOD STEP AFTER THE LAST FEW YEARS OF NOT MAKING IT..


goodfootlook
Since: Jan 6, 2012
Posted on: January 6, 2012 11:11 am
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Since: Dec 25, 2007
Posted on: January 6, 2012 10:39 am
 

Film Room: Broncos vs. Steelers wild-card preview

This is horrible analysis. I mean absolutely horrible. You are sitting there and saying that there is a zero percent chance of Denver putting a single point on the board. Yeah Tim Tebow has looked bad the last two weeks. Scratch that, Tebow has looked horrendously awful the last two weeks. You're not going to find me arguing with that, and I think its starting to become clear he doesn't have a future in this league. But the guy has a Heisman Trophy on his shelf, and you're talking as if their throwing a toddler out there. You never, ever say the words "zero percent chance" when you are talking about a playoff game. If you do, it either means you are trying to spark a reaction, or you have had your head so far up your a$$ that you've missed some of the crazy upsets that have happened in the playoffs in recent years (Seahawks over Saints, Cardinals making a Super Bowl run, 2001 Patriots, etc. etc.)


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