Blog Entry

Film Room: Patriots vs. Ravens AFC CG preview

Posted on: January 18, 2012 2:20 pm
Edited on: January 20, 2012 12:16 pm
Brady and Lewis will match wits in the AFC Championship Game. (Getty Images)
Posted by Eye on Football Analyst Andy Benoit

Tom Brady is right: the Ravens are the best team the Patriots have faced this season.

Cam Cameron’s offense poses problems for Bill Belichick’s defense, while Ray Lewis’ defense actually has a fighting chance against Brady’s offense. Here’s the breakdown.

1. Patriots formation versatility
Keep in mind, the Patriots, at least offensively, are also the best team the Ravens have faced all season. Their versatility is like nothing we’ve seen before.

Last Saturday they spent a bulk of the game in a no-huddle that featured tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez and wideouts Wes Welker, Deion Branch and Julian Edelman. Remarkably, they were able to run effectively out of this personnel grouping, as Hernandez carried the ball five times out of the backfield for 61 yards.

Those runs are almost just gravy – something the defense must now respect. The real purpose of putting Hernandez in the backfield is the same purpose as all of New England’s other alignments: to get a potent pass catcher matched up on a linebacker. Even safeties have major trouble covering Hernandez and Gronkowski.

This game will be no exception, as Baltimore’s strong safety Bernard Pollard is simply not capable of doing it, and the Ravens are unlikely to remove Ed Reed from centerfield. Brady rarely throws in the direction of starting cornerbacks. Even when he goes to Wes Welker, it’s often when Welker has drawn a matchup against a backup slot corner or non-cornerback.

Because the Patriots don’t try to confuse defenses so much as force them into bad matchups, HOW the Patriots line up to play is almost more important than how they actually play. Most of the damage is done through crafty presnap alignment. (This is one reason so many of Brady’s throws come off three-and five-step drops; the decision of where to go with the ball is made prior to the snap.)

The Patriots frequently go up-tempo to prevent defenses from having enough time to regroup or alter matchups before the snap. The only sure way to take the chess match element out of the equations and force the Patriots to win with execution is to play press-man coverage across the board. Problem is, no defense, including Baltimore’s, has enough quality cover artists to do this.

After a win over the Texans last week, Joe Flacco and the Ravens will take on Tom Brady and the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in the AFC Championship. Jason Horowitz and's Pat Kirwan preview this game. Watch the game on CBS at 3 PM ET. 

2. Baltimore’s response
The Ravens may not have enough cover artists to play the Patriots man-to-man, but they might be the one team capable of matching wits with them. Ray Lewis is arguably the smartest front seven defender in the league, while Ed Reed is arguably the smartest back four defender. Those two are capable of recognizing New England’s subtle tendencies and getting their teammates into the proper defensive play-call.

Of course, Brady and Bill O’Brien know this and will likely inject a few tendency-breaking wrinkles into the gameplan. Of course, the Ravens know that the Patriots know that they know this, and the Patriots know that the Ravens know that they know and ... you get the idea – this has the potential to be one heck of a chess match.

Look for the Ravens to do plenty of presnap communicating and disguising at the line of scrimmage. It helps that they’re comfortable playing a plethora of different coverages. The outcome may be decided by which side can bully the other into a reactionary position. The Patriots can do that by going hurry-up; the Ravens can do it by blitzing fervidly up the middle.

3. Ravens pass-rush
To beat Tom Brady, you have to rob him of the trust he has in his pass protection. Brady – like any quarterback – does not like pressure directly in his face. And though he’s as tough in the pocket as anyone in the game, he has a tendency to get just a tad jumpy after taking a few hits from edge-rushers.

Recent playoff history shows that if a defense can create pressure and doubt, Brady will eventually start eating up the play clock worrying about protections. That makes him a significantly less dangerous player versus when he’s hurrying things up and concentrating on his receivers’ routes.

The question is, can the Ravens generate a pass-rush? If they blitz, they likely can. But one of the best kept secrets in football is that this is generally a four-man rushing defense. Because the Ravens use so many 3-4 or 2-5 fronts, their four pass-rushers come from a variety of different spots, thus creating the illusion of a blitz:

The Ravens use a lot of zone exchange concepts in their pass-rush. A zone exchange is essentially a four-man pass-rush where linebackers or safeties rush the quarterback, while a defensive lineman or another linebacker drops back into coverage. It can be confusing, often creating the illusion of a heavy blitz. The Thanksgiving night game – in which Baltimore had nine sacks – provided a good example.

Above (click image to enlarge): Upon first glance, this appears to be a blitz featuring five, possibly six pass-rushers.

Below: The Ravens use a lot of zone exchange concepts in their pass-rush. A zone exchange is essentially a four-man pass-rush where linebackers or safeties rush the quarterback, while a defensive lineman or another linebacker drops back into coverage. It can be confusing, often creating the illusion of a heavy blitz. The Thanksgiving night game – in which Baltimore had nine sacks – provided a good example.

The Ravens’ four-man rush has seemingly evaporated over the last month. It registered a quiet five sacks over the final three weeks of the regular season and then got zero pressure on T.J. Yates in the divisional round. With talents like Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata and Pernell McPhee, it’s imprudent to assume the pressure can’t suddenly return.

But worth noting is that the Patriots’ pass protection in the last month has also been as sharp as the Ravens’ pass-rush has been dull.

4. Dialing in on Ray Rice
Bill Belichick always builds his defensive gameplan around eliminating the opponents’ greatest strength. This season, no man has done a better job at eliminating Ray Rice than Cam Cameron. (Rice averaged less than 10 carries a game in Baltimore’s four losses.)

To be fair, Cameron has featured Rice most of the season, and the results thus far speak for themselves: 13 wins and Rice leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage.

But if Belichick has inside linebackers Brandon Spikes and Jerod Mayo shadow Rice, or if he brings safety Patrick Chung down in the box every play or has his linebackers sellout against the run, will Cameron have enough patience to stay with his superstar?

The Patriots run defense is coming together, while their secondary can be tempting to attack.

5. Baltimore’s passing game
It was virtually nonexistent against Houston, mainly because deep threat Torrey Smith was nullified by Johnathan Joseph. The Patriots don’t have a corner on Joseph’s level (or even in Joseph’s stratosphere).

If the Ravens want to take their deep shots with Smith, all they’ll have to do is block a mundane Patriots pass-rush (last week’s performance at Foxboro notwithstanding). Devin McCourty was serviceable as a nickel free safety against Denver, but it remains to be seen whether the struggling corner can suddenly play a new position when facing a strong-armed quarterback and polished play-action passing game.

In other matchups, tight ends Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson were quiet against Houston but should be able to work the seams against New England. Anquan Boldin will be extremely problematic for the Pats. The thought of him working outside against Kyle Arrington seems patently unfair; inside is even worse, as the Patriots don’t have a true slot corner.

So who will win? Check our NFL expert picks for all the Championship games

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Since: May 29, 2007
Posted on: January 22, 2012 1:47 am

Film Room: Patriots vs. Ravens AFC CG preview

I'm looking at this year's record against playoff teams:

Pats  0-2
Ravens 5-0   

I think I know who will win this game. 

Since: Jan 7, 2007
Posted on: January 21, 2012 9:35 pm

Film Room: Patriots vs. Ravens AFC CG preview

After listening to ALL the media pollish Brady's golden football of excellence, I think Baltimore should walk out to the coin flip and call a forfeit. How can this pathetic team actually win amoungst the glorious Patriots.

I mean the media would have nothing to talk about for two weeks if Baltimore won the game. 

Since: Jan 11, 2007
Posted on: January 21, 2012 5:53 pm

Film Room: Patriots vs. Ravens AFC CG preview

Derek, you're team won 2 games, dude. get off of this board!

Since: Jan 9, 2012
Posted on: January 20, 2012 5:07 pm

Film Room: Patriots vs. Ravens AFC CG preview

Pats will win by 14 at least and send those Ravens and their Ugly Purple uniforms off into the sunset. !

Since: Oct 18, 2007
Posted on: January 19, 2012 10:19 pm

Film Room: Patriots vs. Ravens AFC CG preview

The Patriots and there fans will find out Sunday, like the Steelers found out, that Flacco has amazing accuracy on mid to deep throws. Torrey Smith will get deep separation. The Raven Offense will be a nightmare for that miserable New Englane Defense.
While the Ravens D, in Playoff mode, are a wondrous sight to see. Buh Bye Brady.

Since: Mar 6, 2008
Posted on: January 19, 2012 9:47 pm

Film Room: Patriots vs. Ravens AFC CG preview

Good question:thunderwolf, his defensive teamates, will see way to much of his noted anger, if they do n't perform up to his HOF expectations. Question can they put sufficient pressure on( Best) clutch passer in the NFL, to prevent massive missmatch in the secondary?. DC of Baltimore had poor results vs the Texan's. A repeat of that debacle could lead to a long sad end for Baltimore fans. Won't matter, If Flacco continues to resemble a missplaced bum at QB, like he has recently, but unlike Tebow, he can't even run. Many posters supporting the Ravens, expect to rush Brady into mistakes? Not likely, his OL has never been better, nor has he looked sharper in his leadership or passing ability. Ravens DC has at least 3 recievers, to cover(2) could fill in on the offensive line and more difficult to stop, than a mack truck, the other : one of the most clutch receivers in the game. Almost seems hopeless Raven fans, but only if the same team shows up at Foxboro on sunday, who barely won at Texas: Good luck to both teams!!!

Since: Apr 30, 2007
Posted on: January 19, 2012 5:30 pm

Film Room: Patriots vs. Ravens AFC CG preview

All this work and study and all of the nuances are great, but as a Pats fan, my biggest fear is that the Ravens grab an early turnover or shock and awe them like in 2010. I think the Pats are mentally tougher now, but they have trouble when teams are extremely physical with the receivers. Brady can be raddled. I actually think the Pats d will surprise in this game and limit Ray Rice, also I expect a poor game plan from Cam Cameron. But it will come down to who plays well early. If the Ravens strike on D early and throw the Pats off their game plan, they'll take it. However If the Pats score first maybe grab an early 10-0 lead and force Flacco to win it then it's on to Indy! It's not going to be one of those games where a team makes a large comeback. I think we'll know by the end of the first quarter who will dominate the game. GO PATS!  

Since: Oct 20, 2006
Posted on: January 19, 2012 3:51 pm

Film Room: Patriots vs. Ravens AFC CG preview

Let's face it this is going to be a Dog Fight for 3 quarters +, I say # not 4 quarters because if the Pats.. use the "hurry -Up/ No Huddle Offense as much as they can. Baltimore's Defense will tier and leave the 4th quarter advantage Patriots (who always' play a full 4 quarters). Kick in B. Belicheck's half time adjustments and savvy play calling in the final 5 min's. (Brady Punt as example). Pats win this one by 10 or more.

Since: Jan 26, 2011
Posted on: January 18, 2012 4:37 pm

Film Room: Patriots vs. Ravens AFC CG preview

This will be a very close game in my opinion because of the Ravens advantages in the trenches. I still look for the Patriots to pull it off, but the Ravens will drag them into one of those ugly type of games. Tom Brady will put up more points than Joe Flacco can and that's why I'm looking at a Patriots 21-17 win. The Ravens defense will keep them in the game, but the offense will let them down, again in the postseason.

Since: Nov 18, 2011
Posted on: January 18, 2012 3:31 pm

Film Room: Patriots vs. Ravens AFC CG preview

Hey everybody... I can't really stand to look for myself so I just wanted to ask... has Ray Lewis' gaping maw closed back up since last week's game?   I got nauseated looking at that in the online photos.  However, it would make a good softball holder.

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