Blog Entry

Super Bowl XLVI Odds: Patriots favored by 3.5

Posted on: January 22, 2012 11:50 pm
Edited on: January 23, 2012 11:30 am
Brady and the Pats are early 3.5-point favorites in Vegas. (Getty Images)
By Will Brinson

The Super Bowl matchup is set -- we've got all the best storylines in Sorting the Sunday Pile -- and the Patriots and Giants will square off in a rematch of the epic 2007 Super Bowl.

Championship Weekend Recap

The odds won't be tilted quite as heavily towards the Patriots this time, though, as New England's been installed as "only" a three-point favorite according to R.J. Bell of notes that the Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite.

When the two teams met in 2007, the Patriots closed as 12-point favorites in Vegas, but, of course, ultimately ended up losing straight-up.

Bell notes that the Vegas favorite has won 33 of 45 Super Bowls in NFL history, or 73 percent of the games played.

"Historically, the point-spread is an unmatched predictor of NFL games," Bell notes.

Currently, the over/under for the Super Bowl is a whopping 55.5 points according to Sportsbook, which means Vegas expects to see plenty of scoring from the two teams. That's no surprise given the Eli Manning-Tom Brady matchup and the pair of explosive offenses featured by the two teams.

Speaking of big numbers, Bell projects that over $10 billion -- yes, with a "b" -- will be wagered on this year's Super Bowl.

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Since: Dec 14, 2006
Posted on: January 24, 2012 3:17 pm

Super Bowl XLVI Odds: Patriots favored by 3.5

o/u is 55

Since: Aug 27, 2006
Posted on: January 24, 2012 2:56 pm

Super Bowl XLVI Odds: Patriots favored by 3.5

Just like every other Giant game in the last 5, I already have butterflies... truth be told, we (giants fans) have been accostomed to waiting for the other shoe to drop for years and I for one, will never not think like that. It's surely not b/c I'm lacking in fandom nor do I think the Giants can't win... it's just that
  1. Any team can beat any team, any week
  2. Um, he's the best QB ever... duh... of course he could put up a ton of points (ie, Brady)
  3. The sweatshirt living mad scientist has 2 weeks to come up w/something new to throw off the Giant's offense
  4. Welker and Gronkowski... Giants don't matchup great w/quick slot WR's and bigger TE's (although I would not be surprised to see more of Jacquian Williams manning up or helping out to double Gronk... he's a bit quicker then our other LB's). 
  5. Running game struggles... Wilfork is playing like he's 25 for crying out loud
I could list hundreds more, as could other people... point is, this is far from a given for either team and anyone who thinks otherwise is either a) a giant hater... b) a pats hater... c) extremely loyal to their favorite team... to the point they wear blinders to reality... d) probably not a huge football x's and o's kind of person and doesn't understand the complexities associated with the game.

Regardless... go Big Blue... bring us home one more and validate Eli and co. one more time for all of the world... if only so I can read all of the detractors wax poetic about how Eli isn't good... I love it!!!!

Since: Feb 25, 2008
Posted on: January 24, 2012 2:31 pm

Super Bowl XLVI Odds: Patriots favored by 3.5

Anyone know what the over/under is set at?  My work computer blocks "access to category gambling" and I can't get to see the vegas odds.

Since: Sep 21, 2011
Posted on: January 24, 2012 1:01 pm

Super Bowl XLVI Odds: Patriots favored by 3.5

WEEZER953 .... Love all the hate!!! Keep it up...ppl have guaranteed the Giants to lose for the past 5 weeks, so yeah you are prob right this time! I have said it before, and I will say it of teams no longer playing should not be allowed to comment about teams still playing! lmao Especially since everything they write is usually out of spite or hate or wishful thinking...lmao Do me a favor weezer953, while u are watching my G-Men win their 4th SB, and 2nd over "Mr. All-America", please please please continue the has worked so well to this point!!!

Since: Dec 30, 2007
Posted on: January 24, 2012 11:54 am

Super Bowl XLVI Odds: Patriots favored by 3.5

When the Giants last met the Patriots in the Super Bowl, the Pats
were at the top of their game looking for an undefeated season. This
proved a distraction that that allowed the surprising Giants to abscond
with their assumed Super Bowl ring. You could almost excuse them for
falling into that trap. 

Now New England is anything but unbeatable and they showed that Sunday
in their rather lucky escape on their home field.  The Ravens offense was
not respected, but their defense was largely what got them to yesterday's
game where, either their offense came alive, or the Pat's defense was
exposed.  That is going to be the real question to be answered in February's

By all estimates, the Giants passing game should be better than the
Raven's, their defense not so good but still OK. I think, as is often the case
in the Super Bowl, the running game will prove decisive.  The 49ers run defense
shut the Giants down, but I do not expect the same from the Patriots.  It would
be great if the Giants could pick off a couple of Brady's passes as the Ravens
did Sunday.  That would be great but I do not expect it. The Giants were lucky 
to recover two fumbles deep in 49er territory for their decisive scores. That is
unlikely to happen again. They will have to win with solid smath mouth football
no turnovers and clock controle.

I like the Giants to win in this match up, not just because of it's resemblance
to their last Super Bowl victory, but because they have the offense and the defense
to win the game. My one big fear is in their kicking game. Why is it that every
team in the league is blasting their kickoffs deep into the end zone while the
Giants can't seem to get it past the 5 yard line?  And their punting game is very
worrisome as well  They were  giving up precious field position against the 49ers
the whole game. That will not work against the Patriots if it continues.
Still, the Patriots had the easiest road to the final and the Giants by far the
hardest.  With two weeks to get strong and iron out the few weakness that the
Giants displayed Sunday, I like them to win in typical Super Bowl fashion, that
is, going away.  I don't need the stress of watching them have to kick an OT
field goal almost the same length as the one the Ravens missed.  However, 
beggers can't be choosers.

Since: Sep 21, 2011
Posted on: January 24, 2012 7:28 am
This comment has been removed.

Post Deleted by Administrator

Since: Jun 24, 2007
Posted on: January 23, 2012 11:53 pm

Super Bowl XLVI Odds: Patriots favored by 3.5

Glad you recognize that Minnesota fans are the salt of the earth.  It's about time someone in New York finally got some sense.  And why would I use dweeb?  Well because douchebag asshat usually seems to get blocked...

Don't worry though, your arrogance is cute...and will be that much sweeter when you guys are defeated by Mr. All America himself (i.e. the greatest QB to ever have played the game) 

Since: Oct 29, 2010
Posted on: January 23, 2012 10:36 pm

Super Bowl XLVI Odds: Patriots favored by 3.5

Pats might have opened plus 3.5 but by Wed. it will be less than 3.

Since: Jan 25, 2008
Posted on: January 23, 2012 10:34 pm

Super Bowl XLVI Odds: Patriots favored by 3.5

The bottom line is that this game should be EVEN.  Two offenses that are peaking, and although nobody wants to admit it, Eli is having an MVP-type year, unfortunately, so did 4-5 other QBs in the league this year, Brady included.  Two terrible defenses against the pass... should be a high scoring game.  24-20 NY when they met earlier this year... with a last minute NY TD to win, and NO SCORING in 1st half... which will not happen again!!  As far as Im concerned, both offenses will be better than the opposing defense.  I have more confidence in the Giants defensive front disrupting Brady, than I do in the NE front 4- although they did look good against Balt in the first quarter.  I see a high scoring game, and just as we've seen all year....I'd rather have the ball with 2 minutes left in the game, even if Im down 3-4 points, as this certainly is "The Year of the Quarterback", and either one of these teams can win it all on the last drive of the game.  Given those circumstances, I took NY + the points (bought +4 for -140).  GL... looking forward to it.

Since: Nov 1, 2006
Posted on: January 23, 2012 10:14 pm

Super Bowl XLVI Odds: Patriots favored by 3.5

Really Rockety?!  Don't point out small things in games because yeah... stuff happens in all games and the result is the result.  Regardless of a "hold" the Pats were outplayed that day.  SUCK IT UP!  Not to mention I didn't see you use words like "tuck" or "spying" in order to win super bowls.  Can ya be a little less arrogant?  Prolly not since Mr. Brady is full of himself it rubs off on the fans.  Enjoy another loss at the hands of the Giants :-)

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