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Blog Entry

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

Posted on: February 10, 2012 9:48 am
 
Anyone else see what stadium they're in? (Getty Images)
By Will Brinson

This is the season of Peyton Manning rumors. We hear he has "a noodle arm." We hear he cannot "throw the ball to the left." We think there's no way he could play for the Colts again after all the drama leading up to the Super Bowl in Indianapolis. But what do we know?

Nothing, at least when it comes to Manning's future. In the interest of trying to figure out what uniform -- if any -- Peyton will play, let's handicap the race for one of the all-time greats in 2012.

Anything and everything is in play, except for teams that already have what we'll loosely term a "franchise quarterback." The Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Texans, Chargers, Giants, Cowboys, Packers, Lions, Bears, Saints, Falcons, Panthers and Rams all have their guy.

The Jaguars, Raiders, Vikings, Buccaneers and Broncos have very recent first-round investments in quarterbacks and aren't likely to pursue Manning. The Bills have a lot invested in Ryan Fitzpatrick, but Peyton Manning isn't going to play in Buffalo. It's like Cleveland. Ain't happening.

That leaves the 49ers, Titans, Chiefs, Jets, Seahawks, Colts, Redskins, Cardinals and Dolphins as possible landing spots. We'll break down the scenarios in our order of likelihood and provide actual available odds from Bovada.lv and/or the Vegas percentages from RJ Bell of Pregame.com.

Longshots

49ers: The Niners could perceive Manning as the guy to put them over the top. But Jim Harbaugh says he's got "their guy" in incumbent-but-still-free-agent quarterback Alex Smith. Maybe he means it. Or maybe he's just doing good public relations. It would be a fascinating fit for a number of reasons (Andrew Luck's old coach anyone?) though.
Vegas Odds: 2%


Chiefs: Matt Cassel isn't the long-term answer for anyone, but he did make a Pro Bowl (thanks, schedule-makers!) and he is Scott Pioli's guy. Plus, Romeo Crennel -- a defensive coordinator -- is from the previous regime as well. Oh, and this is Patriots Midwest. Makes no sense.
Vegas Odds: 1.5%


Titans: This would make sense ... except the Titans have already invested in a veteran (Matt Hasselbeck, three-year deal) and a rookie (Jake Locker, first round in 2011). Plus, they came out and said they're not chasing him.
Vegas Odds: 1.5%

Jets

Vegas Odds: 11%
Actual Line: 5/1
Everyone will tell you the Jets are the perfect fit, as they're "just one piece away." This couldn't be further from the truth: the Jets are "several pieces away" at least. Some of those pieces are on defense and some of those piece are on offense. Quarterback is one of the pieces they need, but plugging Peyton onto Rex Ryan's roster wouldn't even make them the favorite to win the AFC East, unless he was 100 percent healthy.

There are also people that will tell Eli vs. Peyton in New York is the ultimate storyline. While that's true, that doesn't mean it's something either of those guys want to deal with for the length of their current contracts. You saw what happened at the Super Bowl, right? Every question pointed to Eli was about Peyton's neck and his recovery ... even though Eli was playing for a Super Bowl. It would be magnified in the Big Apple.

And don't think Manning doesn't see a parallel to Brett Favre with the Jets option either. Look at the way he's handled his business thus far; looking like Favre is the last thing he wants.

Seahawks

Vegas Odds: N/A
Actual Line: N/A
Everyone's sleeping on Pete Carroll! That terrifies me to no end. Look, there are plenty of reasons why this doesn't make sense. There's no guaranteed running game (Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett are both free agents), the offensive line's young and injury-prone thus far and Sidney Rice is the best receiving option.

But the defense is good in Seattle, the coach is enthusiastic, and as we note with the Cardinals below, the NFC West is a much better path to the Super Bowl than a lot of other spots. There are also plenty of offensive skill-position guys available in free agency, so it's possible the Seahawks could convince Peyton to take snaps in Seattle and then let him play pied piper for other talented players.

Retirement

Vegas Odds: 20%
Actual Line: N/A
We have to talk about it, you know? Bovada's not offering a betting line on this, but this is the most-likely scenario according to RJ Bell, as Vegas' odds give it a 20 percent chance.

I don't buy it ... but only for this year. Even if -- hypothetically speaking -- there are still reports about Manning only being able to sling his noodle to the right side of the field when March 13 comes around and -- somehow -- no one signs him, he'll keep rehabbing the entire season, getting healthy and will get a call from someone with an injured quarterback midway through the year. Last year there was a waiver scramble for Kyle Orton and the Bears actually considering calling Favre.

Manning would get a job, worst case, by November. Which is precisely why someone like the Redskins would go ahead sign him anyway, regardless of how healthy he is.

Colts

Vegas Odds: 14%
Actual Line: 3/1
Here's a theory I meant to throw out there during Super Bowl week: Jim Irsay and Peyton are punking everyone. They're having fun with everyone by acting like they hate each other, even though they have a master plan in place. Irsay will not pick up Manning's option on March 8, allowing him to become a free agent. But then Manning will re-sign with the Colts as a free agent, allowing them to limit the cap damage his contract does. He would still have $10.4 million in dead cap space if they don't pick up the option, which still gives them something like $18 million to work with.

The Colts can make his new contract cap-friendly and incentive-laden, and let Peyton finish his career as a Colt. They can also draft Andrew Luck or, if Luck decides to make a stink about playing behind Peyton, trade the pick or draft Robert Griffin, III.

There are reasons why this makes no sense: the actual disdain between Irsay and Peyton, the distraction that Peyton's situation was to Eli in the Super Bowl, Peyton's unwillingness to take less money to play for the same team and the Colts need to rebuild all the way, to name a few. But we're still throwing it out there.

Cardinals

Vegas Odds: 3%
Actual Line: 2.5/1

Vegas doesn't like this option, but it makes a lot of sense to me. They need to do work on the offensive line, but those problems can be addressed through free agency and the draft. Arizona has Larry Fitzgerald, a top-five wideout in the NFL, who somehow managed to catch 170 passes for 2,548 yards with John Skelton, Max Hall and Kevin Kolb under center the last two years. They have Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams in the backfield and a defense that came on strong at the end of 2011.

The Cardinals also play in a division that's conquerable right away; the NFC West might pose the path of least resistance when it comes to obtaining a Super Bowl. Arizona's lacked a franchise quarterback since Kurt Warner retired two years ago, and don't think Fitzgerald wouldn't welcome this move with open arms.

The Kurt Warner parallel here is perfect for Manning, even if Warner's path to Arizona was much different than Manning's would be.

Shanahan and Peyton together: What could go wrong? (Getty Images)

Redskins

Vegas Odds: 17%
Actual Line: 2.5/1
No surprise here, but Vegas likes the Redskins a lot. After all, it's the Redskins. They throw big money at the biggest names, and no name in the history of free agency would be bigger than Peyton Manning. (I agree with Mike Freeman that Reggie White was a bigger free agent, but only because he wasn't an unknown. But Peyton's a bigger "name.")

The Redskins also think they're one piece away from making a run in the NFC East, even though they lack a lot more than just a quarterback. Who's Peyton throwing to? Who's running the ball behind Peyton? Who's protecting Peyton? WHY IS KYLE SHANAHAN ROLLING HIM OUT TO THE RIGHT?

But seriously: Mike and Kyle Shanahan have an offensive system that is absolutely tailored to a guy like RG3. They should make their all-in move on draft day, hop the Browns and grab the Baylor quarterback. He would be an instant superstar in Shanny's system and, in my opinion, more effective than Peyton for Washington in 2012. Of course, having said all that, this is Dan Snyder's team. Don't count them out to grab Peyton.

Dolphins

Vegas Odds: 20%
Actual Line: 3/1
The Dolphins are everyone's favorite, and it makes good sense. They have a blossoming running game and with Manning under center, Reggie Bush would only be more effective. They have talented wide receivers, with Brandon Marshall holding No. 1 potential. (Davonne Bess ain't no slouch, and Bush is a fantastic receiving option as well.)

They have a franchise left tackle in Jake Long. They have a talented defense, with only a limited number of free agents that need re-signing. They have an owner who wants to sexy-up the offense and bring in celebrities to the stadium. No one is, um, sexier than Peyton Manning. (And Stephen Ross is "infatuated" with him, reportedly. Me-ow.)

Manning owns a condo in South Beach. He'd get to play his top rival, Tom Brady, twice a year. He'd also get a ridiculously easy schedule in 2012, as outside the AFC East the Dolphins play the Jaguars, Titans, Rams, Seahawks, Raiders, Texans, 49ers, Cardinals and Bengals.

Oh right, one more team: the Colts. In Indy. It's all a little too perfect.

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Comments

Since: Jun 25, 2009
Posted on: February 14, 2012 8:32 am
 

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

Why wouldn't the Colts resign Peyton to a , incentive laden contract AND trade the first overall pick for a buttload of picks & players???

In theory a great idea, but Peyton isn't signing an incentive laden deal.  He's going to once again make a guaranteed fortune.

And even if he did play for the type of deal you're suggesting, why not play for a contender?

Indi is no longer a contender, they are rebuilding.  



Since: Jun 6, 2011
Posted on: February 13, 2012 2:57 pm
 

Peyton stays with the Colts - wins 12 games

If Peyton Manning is willing to accept an incentive laden contract to play elsewhere
AND
Teams are willing to offer kings ransom to the Rams in order to draft RGIII


Why wouldn't the Colts resign Peyton to a cheap, incentive laden contract AND trade the first overall pick for a buttload of picks & players???



Since: Oct 14, 2010
Posted on: February 13, 2012 2:43 pm
 

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

He won't be a Colt.  He won't be happy there and it will leave him and Indy with a worse taste in their mouth than if he retires or goes to the....BROWNS.  I like Colt McCoy but don't think he is the franchise guy.  I wish he was.  U of Texas hasn't had much of a big-time QB since Bobby Layne.  We had hope with Vince.



Since: Sep 19, 2008
Posted on: February 13, 2012 11:50 am
 

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

It would be ironically funny if he ended his career as a Charger,,,,



Since: Aug 17, 2006
Posted on: February 13, 2012 10:52 am
 

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

In regards to the Dolphins - yes, Brandon Marshall is a good #1 receiver to have, but I disagree about Davone Bess as the #2.  The writer says "he aint no slouch."  I say that Bess is very much a slouch when it comes to being a #2 receiver.  This was an undrafted guy out of Hawaii.  He's been serviceable, but it would be difficult to go around the league and find more than a few teams where he'd be the #2, or even #3, on those other teams.  He's about 5'9".  He's caught 11 TDs over 4 full seasons.  Don't get me wrong, not saying he's terrible, but I think he's a slouch in terms of #2 wide receivers.  However, of course, a healthy Peyton Manning would probably turn Bess into a 1,000 yard 8 TD receiver.  Manning has made so many average receivers look good.



Since: Jun 25, 2009
Posted on: February 13, 2012 10:37 am
 

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

I cannot say that Peyton would think like me but, in his position getting a big paycheck would not be the first priority. Obviously he is on his way out of football in the next five years. 

No.  Money is EVERYTHING to these guys, no doubt about it.  Even when it seems like it isn't don't be fooled because it is, there is and will never be anything more important then money to superstar athletes.   As fans we get a little too caught up in that "winning" thing, when in reality these athletes are only thinking about one thing and that is padding their bank accounts a little more before they retire.

The only other factor here might be location, but what I'm talking about has nothing to do with winning.  For example where does his wife prefer to live?  What is the best situation for the wife and kids?  What city has the best private schools for their children?  Maybe his wife is involved in a few things, work, charity, etc..... what city makes life simpler for her?

Winning? Nahhhhhh.  Anywhere Peyton goes he'll say he chose because he can win there, but the truth of the matter is he's lying to everybody.  Money and family, those are the only 2 things that matter.

Fans care about winning a whole lot more then any player does... don't kid yourself. 



Since: Aug 18, 2006
Posted on: February 13, 2012 7:02 am
 

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

No Way Peyton goes to the NFC and 100% not to the Skins. That will take away from the Eli's chances. My money is on the Fins and the Jets are the longshot. Those are the only 2 teams that have a chance.



Since: Dec 26, 2006
Posted on: February 12, 2012 4:59 pm
 

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

The only place for Manning to step in and win, possibly the SB is.......  Wait for  it.....  Dallas.   I can't stand the cowboys but there really isn't a place for Peyton to succeed unless he's ok with a team that needs to rebuild a bit.  Will Jerry rid of Romo?  I don't think so.  Shhh, he thinks Romo is the right quarter back to lead his team.  Miami is ok but c'mon, contenders, no way.  However, he will fill the seat.



Since: Jun 4, 2007
Posted on: February 12, 2012 9:07 am
 

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

Would love to see Peyton in Miami. He would fit in perfect. Miami would be very solid all around and be able to compete in the AFC for a shot in the playoffs. With guys like Marshall and Bush on offense and a very solid defense Miami could be dangerous!! Peyton would help the lack in leadership we've been missing for years. Football could be back in Miami again!!



Since: Jan 25, 2010
Posted on: February 12, 2012 1:00 am
 

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

Let's look at this logically.  Article is not far off by the way.  Most likely scenario is Peyton retires.  2nd best possibility is Peyton becomes Miami starter.  Like it big time.  If healthy he will take them to the top.  NE on way down.  Jets, not there, Buffalo is Buffalo.  He will ahve material, control and glamour.  THird choice is Redskins.  Don't see it.  Shanahan cannot lose control, he will with Peyton.  Offensive line too weak as well as weak receiving corp.  He won't select based on money.  He doesn't want to face brother twice and doesn't like NFC so much.  That is it in nutshell.


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