Blog Entry

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

Posted on: February 10, 2012 9:48 am
Anyone else see what stadium they're in? (Getty Images)
By Will Brinson

This is the season of Peyton Manning rumors. We hear he has "a noodle arm." We hear he cannot "throw the ball to the left." We think there's no way he could play for the Colts again after all the drama leading up to the Super Bowl in Indianapolis. But what do we know?

Nothing, at least when it comes to Manning's future. In the interest of trying to figure out what uniform -- if any -- Peyton will play, let's handicap the race for one of the all-time greats in 2012.

Anything and everything is in play, except for teams that already have what we'll loosely term a "franchise quarterback." The Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Texans, Chargers, Giants, Cowboys, Packers, Lions, Bears, Saints, Falcons, Panthers and Rams all have their guy.

The Jaguars, Raiders, Vikings, Buccaneers and Broncos have very recent first-round investments in quarterbacks and aren't likely to pursue Manning. The Bills have a lot invested in Ryan Fitzpatrick, but Peyton Manning isn't going to play in Buffalo. It's like Cleveland. Ain't happening.

That leaves the 49ers, Titans, Chiefs, Jets, Seahawks, Colts, Redskins, Cardinals and Dolphins as possible landing spots. We'll break down the scenarios in our order of likelihood and provide actual available odds from and/or the Vegas percentages from RJ Bell of


49ers: The Niners could perceive Manning as the guy to put them over the top. But Jim Harbaugh says he's got "their guy" in incumbent-but-still-free-agent quarterback Alex Smith. Maybe he means it. Or maybe he's just doing good public relations. It would be a fascinating fit for a number of reasons (Andrew Luck's old coach anyone?) though.
Vegas Odds: 2%

Chiefs: Matt Cassel isn't the long-term answer for anyone, but he did make a Pro Bowl (thanks, schedule-makers!) and he is Scott Pioli's guy. Plus, Romeo Crennel -- a defensive coordinator -- is from the previous regime as well. Oh, and this is Patriots Midwest. Makes no sense.
Vegas Odds: 1.5%

Titans: This would make sense ... except the Titans have already invested in a veteran (Matt Hasselbeck, three-year deal) and a rookie (Jake Locker, first round in 2011). Plus, they came out and said they're not chasing him.
Vegas Odds: 1.5%


Vegas Odds: 11%
Actual Line: 5/1
Everyone will tell you the Jets are the perfect fit, as they're "just one piece away." This couldn't be further from the truth: the Jets are "several pieces away" at least. Some of those pieces are on defense and some of those piece are on offense. Quarterback is one of the pieces they need, but plugging Peyton onto Rex Ryan's roster wouldn't even make them the favorite to win the AFC East, unless he was 100 percent healthy.

There are also people that will tell Eli vs. Peyton in New York is the ultimate storyline. While that's true, that doesn't mean it's something either of those guys want to deal with for the length of their current contracts. You saw what happened at the Super Bowl, right? Every question pointed to Eli was about Peyton's neck and his recovery ... even though Eli was playing for a Super Bowl. It would be magnified in the Big Apple.

And don't think Manning doesn't see a parallel to Brett Favre with the Jets option either. Look at the way he's handled his business thus far; looking like Favre is the last thing he wants.


Vegas Odds: N/A
Actual Line: N/A
Everyone's sleeping on Pete Carroll! That terrifies me to no end. Look, there are plenty of reasons why this doesn't make sense. There's no guaranteed running game (Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett are both free agents), the offensive line's young and injury-prone thus far and Sidney Rice is the best receiving option.

But the defense is good in Seattle, the coach is enthusiastic, and as we note with the Cardinals below, the NFC West is a much better path to the Super Bowl than a lot of other spots. There are also plenty of offensive skill-position guys available in free agency, so it's possible the Seahawks could convince Peyton to take snaps in Seattle and then let him play pied piper for other talented players.


Vegas Odds: 20%
Actual Line: N/A
We have to talk about it, you know? Bovada's not offering a betting line on this, but this is the most-likely scenario according to RJ Bell, as Vegas' odds give it a 20 percent chance.

I don't buy it ... but only for this year. Even if -- hypothetically speaking -- there are still reports about Manning only being able to sling his noodle to the right side of the field when March 13 comes around and -- somehow -- no one signs him, he'll keep rehabbing the entire season, getting healthy and will get a call from someone with an injured quarterback midway through the year. Last year there was a waiver scramble for Kyle Orton and the Bears actually considering calling Favre.

Manning would get a job, worst case, by November. Which is precisely why someone like the Redskins would go ahead sign him anyway, regardless of how healthy he is.


Vegas Odds: 14%
Actual Line: 3/1
Here's a theory I meant to throw out there during Super Bowl week: Jim Irsay and Peyton are punking everyone. They're having fun with everyone by acting like they hate each other, even though they have a master plan in place. Irsay will not pick up Manning's option on March 8, allowing him to become a free agent. But then Manning will re-sign with the Colts as a free agent, allowing them to limit the cap damage his contract does. He would still have $10.4 million in dead cap space if they don't pick up the option, which still gives them something like $18 million to work with.

The Colts can make his new contract cap-friendly and incentive-laden, and let Peyton finish his career as a Colt. They can also draft Andrew Luck or, if Luck decides to make a stink about playing behind Peyton, trade the pick or draft Robert Griffin, III.

There are reasons why this makes no sense: the actual disdain between Irsay and Peyton, the distraction that Peyton's situation was to Eli in the Super Bowl, Peyton's unwillingness to take less money to play for the same team and the Colts need to rebuild all the way, to name a few. But we're still throwing it out there.


Vegas Odds: 3%
Actual Line: 2.5/1

Vegas doesn't like this option, but it makes a lot of sense to me. They need to do work on the offensive line, but those problems can be addressed through free agency and the draft. Arizona has Larry Fitzgerald, a top-five wideout in the NFL, who somehow managed to catch 170 passes for 2,548 yards with John Skelton, Max Hall and Kevin Kolb under center the last two years. They have Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams in the backfield and a defense that came on strong at the end of 2011.

The Cardinals also play in a division that's conquerable right away; the NFC West might pose the path of least resistance when it comes to obtaining a Super Bowl. Arizona's lacked a franchise quarterback since Kurt Warner retired two years ago, and don't think Fitzgerald wouldn't welcome this move with open arms.

The Kurt Warner parallel here is perfect for Manning, even if Warner's path to Arizona was much different than Manning's would be.

Shanahan and Peyton together: What could go wrong? (Getty Images)


Vegas Odds: 17%
Actual Line: 2.5/1
No surprise here, but Vegas likes the Redskins a lot. After all, it's the Redskins. They throw big money at the biggest names, and no name in the history of free agency would be bigger than Peyton Manning. (I agree with Mike Freeman that Reggie White was a bigger free agent, but only because he wasn't an unknown. But Peyton's a bigger "name.")

The Redskins also think they're one piece away from making a run in the NFC East, even though they lack a lot more than just a quarterback. Who's Peyton throwing to? Who's running the ball behind Peyton? Who's protecting Peyton? WHY IS KYLE SHANAHAN ROLLING HIM OUT TO THE RIGHT?

But seriously: Mike and Kyle Shanahan have an offensive system that is absolutely tailored to a guy like RG3. They should make their all-in move on draft day, hop the Browns and grab the Baylor quarterback. He would be an instant superstar in Shanny's system and, in my opinion, more effective than Peyton for Washington in 2012. Of course, having said all that, this is Dan Snyder's team. Don't count them out to grab Peyton.


Vegas Odds: 20%
Actual Line: 3/1
The Dolphins are everyone's favorite, and it makes good sense. They have a blossoming running game and with Manning under center, Reggie Bush would only be more effective. They have talented wide receivers, with Brandon Marshall holding No. 1 potential. (Davonne Bess ain't no slouch, and Bush is a fantastic receiving option as well.)

They have a franchise left tackle in Jake Long. They have a talented defense, with only a limited number of free agents that need re-signing. They have an owner who wants to sexy-up the offense and bring in celebrities to the stadium. No one is, um, sexier than Peyton Manning. (And Stephen Ross is "infatuated" with him, reportedly. Me-ow.)

Manning owns a condo in South Beach. He'd get to play his top rival, Tom Brady, twice a year. He'd also get a ridiculously easy schedule in 2012, as outside the AFC East the Dolphins play the Jaguars, Titans, Rams, Seahawks, Raiders, Texans, 49ers, Cardinals and Bengals.

Oh right, one more team: the Colts. In Indy. It's all a little too perfect.

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Since: Nov 2, 2011
Posted on: February 10, 2012 4:38 pm
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Since: Nov 2, 2011
Posted on: February 10, 2012 4:36 pm
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Since: Sep 25, 2007
Posted on: February 10, 2012 4:27 pm

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

The Cowboys make perfect sense if you are Jerry Jones.  Need to crerate excitement in Dallas and Trading Romo and signing Peyton to a 2-3 year deal allows them to get value out of Romo's contract, pick a heir to learn under Peyton and allow Dallas to be a major contender again locally, regionally, and nationally.  Romo has not been able to lead the Cowboys to the promised land and this would allow them to make a combined effort to do so quickly.  The WR and TE's in Dallas compliment Peyton's abilities and Jason Garrett can arrange the offense to fit as well.  If not here then I agree Arizona and San Francisco make sense but come on.  a.  Good Players, b. National Spotlight, c, Domed Stadium, d.  need to show everyone he still has it.  Come on Jerry.  Time to make a deal!!

Since: Oct 3, 2006
Posted on: February 10, 2012 3:59 pm

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

Sorry...wrote too fast...the hole we were in. 

Manning to the Niners!!

Since: Oct 3, 2006
Posted on: February 10, 2012 3:56 pm

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

You're an idiot.  If you don't see what Obama is doing for this country then you are too stupid to even talk to.  It takes a long time to dig yoruself out of the MASSIVE whole he was left from 8 years of Bush.

Since: Apr 25, 2011
Posted on: February 10, 2012 3:48 pm

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

USCOLE.... that wouldnt work. Peyton wants to have a few more years of playing football, not be takin out of the first Steelers game by the Silver Back!!!! lmao.... But on a serious note , Manning will want to retire as a Colt. I think the theory isnt to far fetched. Manning retires as a Colt, Irsay gets the cap flexability, and Peyton stays out one more season to get 100 percent healthy to come back to a stronger Colts team. But if that isnt true (which it probably isnt), the Redskins have always taken veteran players that already peeked in their careers (Snyder is the Maryland Steinbruner).

Since: Feb 10, 2012
Posted on: February 10, 2012 3:47 pm

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

Not that I want this to happen, but one scenario not discussed was having Manning go to the Cowboys.  JJ and JG love having an experienced backup and JJ likes nothing better than to pick up high-profile players as "projects" (Pacman, TO, etc).  If Manning's arm strength doesn't cut the mustard now, I could see Jerry trying to get a 1-year deal with Peyton.  Again, I'd rather the Cowboys have a backup who could throw downfield in the event Romo is injured, but I could see Jerry doin' this stunt for publicity.

Since: Jul 26, 2009
Posted on: February 10, 2012 3:43 pm

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

I hope Seattle doesn't get sucked into this. I'd rather they make a play for Flynn.

Since: Apr 25, 2011
Posted on: February 10, 2012 3:39 pm

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

Im not a fan of Obama but he was screwed right from the start.....Thanks Mr. Bush and everyone who voted for him. You made America what it is today.....a collapsing empire....

Since: May 31, 2009
Posted on: February 10, 2012 3:15 pm

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

I have two words for the best fit for Payton Manning. Baltimore Ravens. I don't now why this hasn't been suggested. They are on the brink and have been on the brink for a few seasons. Could you imagine three years of Ray Lewis captianing your defense and Peyton Manning running your offense? It would be an unparalleled match of superior talent made in heaven. You have a running game that demands respect, so Payton will not get insane pass rushes constantly like he was forced to deal with in Indianapolis. Peyton Manning at the Baltimore Ravens (assuming he can still play, which is a big assumption) is the perfect fit.

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