First off, Manning has a huge question mark regarding his health right now. There is a good chance he could retire. Besides, when you're drafted #1 overall, that means that your learning curve from the collegiate level to the pros is minimal. Yes, the Colts probably won't be good for a couple of years, no surprise there. As far as QB's that start their rookie year, Peyton, Eli, Brady, Big Ben, Joe Flacco, and Donovan McNabb are just a few that I can think of who have had anywhere from decent to HOF careers who started their rookie season.

Of course sitting a rookie qb behind a future HOF qb is an ideal situation, but 90% of the teams out there just don't have that luxury. It also doesn't mean that a qb will have no chance, regardless of his God-given abilities,  to be great if forced into a starting role in his rookie season.

MUNCIE, excellent post. Solid points. A rookie with good legs behind that OL, or an older HOF with 4 neck surgeries, who has NEVER been mobile his whole career? Dump Manning's, Wayne's and other big contracts, and build up a solid OL, that can improve the run game and more importantly, pass protection for your huge investment! In the next couple years, crank up the defense through the draft and free agency.

<span style="color: #000000;">Didn't Marino and Rothlisberger go to the Superbowl in their 2nd and 3rd year? Didn't Cam Newton and Andy Dalton tear up the league their rookie year? There is no one formula, it depends largely on how good the team is around him. If the team around him is really bad I would let some other veteran quarterback take a pounding for awhile. But if the team around him is solid then initial success is possible.

Were you not around for Peyton Manning's rookie year? Sure it was 3-13 on the learn. But the next season was 13-3. Did you watch Dalton in Cincy this year? Newton in Carolina? How are the Colts going to get better with $40 million tied up to Peyton?-28 mill bonus and 12 mill salary. If this was the Peyton we used to know it would be worth every penny. You talk about a question mark? The Green Bay situation turned out nice, but I certainly would not call it a model. Yes, it is a faster game, but I don't think a rookie qb learns from a cap turned backward. The Colts have no chance of a superbowl with Peyton. They would not have the money to build around him. According to your formula, I would build toward a super bowl caliber team in 4 or 5 years. And doubting the Colts o-line, you want to put a $40 million guy with 4 neck surgeries behind them? $40 mill can go towards a better line to protect Luck. I feel very very fortunate to have seen Peyton play his whole career in Indy, but I think painfully it is in his and the Colts best interest if he moves on

The blue print on transiting from one quarter back to another has been written. Jim Irsay is a fool if he does not go the route of the proven method of introducing a rookie quarterback into the league. Rookie quarterbacks know the college game very well and perform to their peak ability.

The Green Bay Packers showed exactly how a rookie quarterback should be introduced into the NFL. Place your cap on backward, grab you damn clipboard and play backup to the senior quarterback, in this case Manning a sure fire NFL Hall of Fame quarterback.

If Jim Irsay is too dumb to follow the blue established print because of $25-$28 million then perhaps he should not owe a NFL team. He does not have to re-invent the wheel, the wheel has been invented, he simply have to follow the blue print.

He would continue to have Manning for a minimum of 2 years perhaps 3 he would also have the fan base, because Manning would be there and Luck would be doing what rookie quarterbacks should be doing. He would be preparing for an orderly transfer and by that time would have earned the respect of his team members, learned the offensive system along with the confidence that he is able to handle the pressure of being a NFL quarterback.

This is not college football. The defensive linemen are specialist, faster and a lot bigger than your average college “D” line. Also in college there might be one perhaps 2 “D” linemen that you would have to be concerned with.

In the pros, you have to be concerned with the entire “D” line, especially if you have a pass rush specialist as most pro teams have. He is gonna be out there when the defense start at him his eyes will be like those of a deer in headlights.

A rookie quarterback can not call his own plays. Things are moving too fast for him. The reads could be deceiving; with the way defenses are able to disguise things. Luck would be running his A$$ off as I have doubts about the Colts “O” line.

The solution for the Colts is Manning for the next couple of years then Luck with 2 years of experience under his belt.

Rookie quarterbacks don’t go to the Super Bowl the first two or three years.

Quarterbacks with experience have a chance, ala Rogers of the Green Bay Packers. Look at his winning percentage since becoming the starter at Green Bay. Look at the winning percentage of quarterbacks that start their rookie season.
 
“ONE MAN’S OPINION”

So what Peyton Manning is a cast off from the Colts Irusay has cast off players 1 or2 a year thinking he had better players that just werte not there. Sigh Andrew Luck and throw him right into the fire and watch him just fade away. Or get some holes filled in his lines and defense. Just a stupid pick there are not many people who think Luck is good enough to just step in as a starting quarter back in the NFL. They will be drafting first for many years to come.

Why do they need to take Luck? They have to many other holes to fill. If they get Luck then they are just going to be a lesser team with a lesser version of Manning. Will Luck be able to read defenses & call plays as well as Manning?? How do we know if Luck can carry the team like Manning has?? Whats wrong with trading the picks for a butt load of picks & maybe some good players also, & then sure up some big holes????


Look at the Steelers. They got a very good (not great) QB with an awesome defense & has won SBs. Thats all the Colts need to get & could do that by trading the pick, draft  Tannehill, use those picks on some solid defense players & use the extra money from not drafting Luck to resign Wayne & others. That sounds better to me then just drafting Luck who is not a sure thing. Luck could get a career ending injury in his 1st season & then where would the Colts be??? Trade the Pick!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


I would trade the #1 pick to Cleveland for their 2 1st round picks & whatever else i can get....I would draft RB T. Richardson and fill the RB position with the 1st pick, use the #22 pick to get QB Ryan Tannehill who is very good & could learn even more from Manning. Or maybe wait until 2013 draft & get QBs Matt Barkley or Laundry Jones


If Manning does leave then I think that Manning would be a great fit or the Ravens. They have a great running game which would help big time. Very good receivers & if Manning gets his deep pass back could you imagine those passes to the fastest man in football Tory Smith. Descent O-line which is good enough to give Manning time to pass but its not like he needs the time when he gets rid of the ball fast. A very good defense which Manning has never had.


Even if Manning is only 80% of what he was could very well put the Ravens over the top & get them a Superbowl with as much talent on that team. An 80% Manning (over Flacco) on the Ravens this past season would have beat the Pats in the AFC championship & went to the Superbowl & possibly won.

Why do they need to take Luck? They have to many other holes to fill. If they get Luck then they are just going to be a lesser team with a lesser version of Manning. Will Luck be able to read defenses & call plays as well as Manning?? How do we know if Luck can carry the team like Manning has?? Whats wrong with trading the picks for a butt load of picks & maybe some good players also, & then sure up some big holes???? <br /><br />Look at the Steelers. They got a very good (not great) QB with an awesome defense & has won SBs. Thats all the Colts need to get & could do that by trading the pick, draft  Tannehill, use those picks on some solid defense players & use the extra money from not drafting Luck to resign Wayne & others. That sounds better to me then just drafting Luck who is not a sure thing. Luck could get a career ending injury in his 1st season & then where would the Colts be??? Trade the Pick!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!<br /> <br /> I would trade the #1 pick to Cleveland for their 2 1st round picks & whatever else i can get....I would draft RB T. Richardson and fill the RB position with the 1st pick, use the #22 pick to get QB Ryan Tannehill who is very good & could learn even more from Manning. Or maybe wait until 2013 draft & get QBs Matt Barkley or Laundry Jones<br /> <br /> If Manning does leave then I think that Manning would be a great fit or the Ravens. They have a great running game which would help big time. Very good receivers & if Manning gets his deep pass back could you imagine those passes to the fastest man in football Tory Smith. Descent O-line which is good enough to give Manning time to pass but its not like he needs the time when he gets rid of the ball fast. A very good defense which Manning has never had.<br /><br />Even if Manning is only 80% of what he was could very well put the Ravens over the top & get them a Superbowl with as much talent on that team. An 80% Manning (over Flacco) on the Ravens this past season would have beat the Pats in the AFC championship & went to the Superbowl & possibly won.<br />

Peyton Manning was 3-13 with a poor offensive line also.  So you are making excuses for the busts.  You would probably be the first to say how insane the Colts were for passing on Luck when he turns out to be a star.  Facts are that you don't win a championship without a big time quarterback and it is worth the risk.  The problem with judging talent is that you cannot measure heart and confidence.  You two sound like the type that would have passed on drafting Peyton Manning also because he had the reputation that he couldn't win the big one.  It is good that neither of you are GMs because your teams would be in the gutter.

I don't know why teams with the first pick in the draft often take QBs, very few turn out to be worth the money that is spent on them.

Yes, it's terrible. Of the 19 quarterbacks taken as the first pick since 1970, only 3 are in the hall of fame, and only 8 of the remainder have been to the pro bowl. All those crappy quarterbacks, Like Bradshaw, Plunket, Bartkowski, Elway, Aikman, Bledsoe, Peton and Eli Manning.

Yep, those guys suck...