Blog Entry

2012 NFL Free Agency: Wide receiver rankings

Posted on: February 24, 2012 5:11 pm
Edited on: February 25, 2012 1:29 am
The 2012 free-agent wide receivers is a stacked group of players. (Getty Images)
By Will Brinson

Leading up to the start of free agency on March 13, we're compiling the best 2012 NFL free agents by position. These are the wide receivers.

Everyone knows the NFL is a passing league these days and that you need an elite quarterback to succeed. But take a look at the teams who made the playoffs in 2011 and you might just realize that having talented wide receivers is a must too. (Just ask Eli Manning.)

Only the Ravens, 49ers and Broncos bucked the trend, and there are mitigating circumstances. Each of those teams is run-heavy, and each of those teams has burned an early-round pick on a wideout -- Torrey Smith, Michael Crabtree and Demaryius Thomas, respectively -- in the last three years. So it’s not like they’re not trying here.

The need for wideouts was especially glaring amongst the NFL’s dregs: the Jaguars, Rams, Browns, Vikings, Redskins and Buccaneers all have something on common besides their terrible records.

Good news, then, for those teams -- this free-agent class is absolutely stacked with talented wideouts. A good portion of them could be franchise-tagged, but the guys who make it to the market are going to get straight paid.

1. Wes Welker

Breakdown: Welker’s considered the perfect fit for the Patriots, and it’s hard to argue: his numbers working in New England’s system since 2007 are absolutely bananas. 111 catches, 1,221 yards and six touchdowns ... on average. “The Patriot Way” might mean one thing on the field and at press conferences, but in the front office it means not over-paying for veterans who want too much money. That’s what Welker is right now, as he’s reportedly seeking $14-15 million per year, more than the Pats have probably invested in all their wideouts in a long time. Franchise-tagging Welker has “hold-out” written all over it, and there’s a common belief that Bill Belichick will call Welker’s bluff and let him test the market.
Potential Landing Spots: Patriots, Jets, Rams, Bears

2. Mike Wallace

Breakdown: Wallace is a restricted free agent and what happens to him this offseason is one of the more fascinating storylines to emerge from the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. If the Steelers simply tender Wallace at their non-franchise-tag max, a team in need of a deep threat could negotiate a deal with Wallace. Pittsburgh would have the right to match, but they’re in a major cap quagmire right now; if the team offering Wallace the contract simply front-loaded the deal, it would be nearly impossible for the Steelers to retain him.

They’d get a first-round pick in return, and you can bet Kevin Colbert will turn it into something nice. But there’s no better way to hurt your competition than by taking one its best players. Good news emerged for the Steelers on Thursday, as they restructured Ben Roethlisberger's contract and may have gotten under the cap. Now they just need to whack another $10 million off their total and Wallace, who is just 25 and has averaged 66 catches, 1,225 yards and nine touchdowns the past two seasons, can "finish his career" in Pittsburgh.
Potential Landing Spots: Steelers, Ravens, Patriots, Bears

3. Marques Colston

Breakdown: Colston’s the rare player who re-negotiated his rookie contract after just two years. But that’s what happens when you crank out back-to-back seasons with more than 1,000 yards and establish yourself as Drew Brees’ top target. Colston’s no longer the true No. 1 option in New Orleans -- Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles were more involved in the passing game in 2011 -- but he’s got the tools of an elite wide receiver. And at age 28 and as the only guy not sweating a franchise tag, he’s going to get paid like one too.
Potential Landing Spots: Bears, Rams, 49ers

4. Dwayne Bowe

Breakdown: Bowe was a 50/50 shot to make it to the market, because the Chiefs also needed to retain cornerback Brandon Carr. But then KC landed Stanford Routt after the defensive back was discarded by the Raiders. That gives the Chiefs some flexibility with Bowe; they can franchise tag him and try to re-sign Carr later. Bowe’s a hulking presence on the field and a physical receiver capable of acrobatic and explosive plays.

Somehow he’s broken out twice in his short career (no, really, he has, even though he's just 27), and it’s scary to think what he could do in a high-octane offense with an elite quarterback. Don’t expect him to hit the market just yet though; the Chiefs can't afford to lose him in what should be a rebound year for KC's offense. He's well worth the $9.4 million.
Potential Landing Spots: Chiefs

5. Vincent Jackson

Breakdown: The Bolts reportedly want to pay V-Jax and keep him in San Diego long term. Which is a fantastic sentiment, but one that’s too tardy to get Jackson to take a deal that doesn’t max out his value. Because he was franchised in 2011, his franchise-tag salary for 2012 would be prohibitive. There’s some concern with his off-field history; Jackson's got a pair of DUI arrests on his record. But if A.J. Smith can’t lock him up between now and March 13, he’s going to make a boatload.
Potential Landing Spots: Bears, Chargers, Jaguars, 49ers, Rams

6. DeSean Jackson

Breakdown: The Eagles are expected to use the franchise tag on D-Jax, but there’s also a possibility that they’ll look to deal him elsewhere after locking him into that tag, which means another team would likely shell out an extension for the oftentimes troubling wideout. Howie Roseman said at the combine that the Eagles want to work something out long term with the receiver.

Jackson’s a home-run hitter and one of the most explosive receivers in the game, but he also feels like a powder keg at times. He’s held out from Eagles camp, he’s talked openly about wanting more money, he’s been vulnerable to injury and he’s been accused of not trying his hardest on the field at times. Will that change if he gets a big contract?
Potential Landing Spots: Eagles, Redskins, Bears

7. Brandon Lloyd

Breakdown: It’s considered a near lock that Lloyd will figure out a way to land with in New England; he’s hitched his wagon to new Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. There’s good reason for that: McD is the guy who turned him into a Pro Bowler in Denver and salvaged his career. Lloyd would fit what the Patriots need well, as a wide receiver not named Ochocinco who can actually still stretch the field. But don’t count out the Rams -- Lloyd told us at the Super Bowl that with a new coaching staff in town, he’s certainly interested in sticking around and helping Sam Bradford grow.

There are some concerns with Lloyd. He's older (he'll turn 31 in July), the majority of his success came while working directly with Josh McDaniels. And there's Lloyd's 45.5 percent catch rate (according to Pro Football Focus, that's the fourth-lowest among wideouts who played at least 50 percent of their team's snaps), which could be alarming. But you could also point to the quarterbacks -- Tim Tebow, Kyle Orton, a dinged-up Sam Bradford, Kellen Clemens and A.J. Feeley, as the problem there.
Potential Landing Spots: Patriots, Rams

8. Stevie Johnson

Breakdown: It’s hard not to be fascinated by Johnson. A seventh-round pick out of Kentucky, Johnson came on strong during the 2010 season, catching 82 passes for 1,073 yards and 10 touchdowns. He repeated the feat in 2011, posting similar, albeit slightly depressed numbers. But it’s also hard not to be frustrated by Johnson. He cost his team a pair of wins -- against the Steelers in 2010 and the Jets in 2011 -- thanks to dropped passes that came after aggressive touchdown celebrations (the drop against Pittsburgh was the week after his "Why So Serious?" shot at Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens).

Johnson says he’s done with those now, but the only way he’s going to get elite money ($8 million per year range) is if someone actually believes him. The one thing no one's talking about with Johnson, though, is his ability to put up big numbers against all-world Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis. In four games against the Jets over the past two years, Johnson's piled up 19 catches for 262 yards and a pair of touchdowns. His final performance against Revis in 2011 -- eight catches for 75 yards and a teeter -- should especially have, as Mike Freeman wrote in November, fellow AFC East coaches curious
Potential Landing Spots: Bills, Bengals, Rams, Jaguars, 49ers

9. Reggie Wayne

Breakdown: Lost in the whole Peyton Manning shuffle is the way that the Colts appear to be discarding Wayne, one of the organization’s all-time great receivers. Wayne grew up under Marvin Harrison, honed his craft with Manning and turned into one of the best receivers in the NFL. He’s clearly lost a step at this point, but if a team wants a veteran who can lead in the clubhouse and on the field, or simply someone who runs ridiculous precise crafts and works his tail off to prepare, Wayne’s going to be a fantastic addition. Belichick’s openly stated his admiration for Wayne, so New England’s not out of the question. He could also simply heading wherever Manning lands.
Potential Landing Spots: Patriots, Dolphins, Redskins, Cardinals, Jets

Honorable Mention: Laurent Robinson, Robert Meachem, Mario Manningham, Eddie Royal, Jerome Simpson, Pierre Garcon

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Since: Aug 24, 2006
Posted on: February 25, 2012 10:14 am

2012 NFL Free Agency: Wide receiver rankings

TwinVikings I believe all of the teams listed including the Bears were listed in POTENTIAL landing spots. He doesn't have two of the Elite WR going to the Bears. Potential means possible so one could infer that these are possible landing spots. One could take it a step further and say that the Bears are hurting at WR and are going to try like hell to land a top wideout, hence the Bears listed quite a few number of times. Your the type of guy who makes me turn down the radio when you call into sports talk shows because I feel embarrassed for you.

Since: Dec 12, 2010
Posted on: February 25, 2012 10:11 am

2012 NFL Free Agency: Wide receiver rankings

Loyalty doesnt mean crap these days. If you want to make money its whoever wants to pay thats where you going to head to. period!

Since: Dec 20, 2009
Posted on: February 25, 2012 1:22 am

2012 NFL Free Agency: Wide receiver rankings

how can you have D-Bowe at #4 this cat would have had the patsys winning the bowl if he was on thier team. mike wallace should be #1, he is young and hungry. wes is old like V-jax. good receivers are a lot easier to come by than RBS.

Since: Jun 29, 2009
Posted on: February 25, 2012 12:52 am

2012 NFL Free Agency: Wide receiver rankings

Will Brinson are you a Bears fan? You have them landing 2 major wideouts and in the mix for several others.  Let me ask you, do have any idea where the bears stand financially? Well I do, and I can tell you that there's NO WAY they are even in the mix for any of those top WR's.  I see a guy like manningham ending up in chicago for far less money than what it would take to land a top guy.  Do some research before you type. 

Since: Sep 28, 2006
Posted on: February 25, 2012 12:32 am

2012 NFL Free Agency: Wide receiver rankings

I could name another potential landing spot for several of these receivers: Cleveland will be spending a lot of money this offseason to upgrade the offense so you'd have to think one if these guys could get a big pay day in Cleveland since they have $20 million in cap space. Of course, such a signing would likely mean a big change at quarterback too.

I'm not sure if these guys are willing to have Colt McCoy as their quarterback but they'd probably be thrilled to have Robert Griffen III passing to them.  

Since: Apr 6, 2007
Posted on: February 24, 2012 11:41 pm

2012 NFL Free Agency: Wide receiver rankings

If colston leaves...wayne is coming to New Orleans

Since: Sep 11, 2006
Posted on: February 24, 2012 10:54 pm

2012 NFL Free Agency: Wide receiver rankings

While I truly hope Welker stays with the Pats I am not sure it will happen. If the reporter was right and he wants 14-15 mil per I dont see the Pats paying that. Only time will tell though. I would love if they got Wallace or Lloyd. Either of those as a deep threat with their TE's and hopefully Welker would be crazy hard to stop. The Pats could then worry solely about defense with both first and maybe second round picks. I must say I wouldnt mind seeing a RB with more breakout potential even though I love the work the law-firm does. Well it should be an interesting off-season to say the least!

Since: Feb 24, 2012
Posted on: February 24, 2012 10:32 pm
This comment has been removed.

Post Deleted by Administrator

Since: May 4, 2008
Posted on: February 24, 2012 10:21 pm

2012 NFL Free Agency: Wide receiver rankings

The Bills stink but Stevie Johnson is a toad. Good riddance. Mike Wallace and Wes Welker will stay put. Both enjoy a great rapport with their QB's. Dwayne Bowe is over-rated. Let him go. Brandon Lloyd in New England will be the sleeper. Goodbye Ochostinko.

Since: May 22, 2007
Posted on: February 24, 2012 8:44 pm

2012 NFL Free Agency: Wide receiver rankings

I don't see Wes Welker signing with anyone else but the Patriots...Tom Brady is his QB and Welker will make the HOF with him. Mike Wallace is a good fit for the Patriots too, but will the Steelers outbid them, so that they are able to compete in the AFC North...the Ravens would love to have him...double whammy. Marques Colston should stay with the Saints...Drew Brees is a great passer and he will thrive in that system, but anywhere else? Who knows...

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