Well, I got lucky last week and broke even...my plays sucked but I dropped Dustin Johnson in for a quarter unit at 36-1 and he saved the day for me. Hope some got in on that as well and not just the top tens I posted that sucked hind tit. If you tail it is usually better to take all of the plays and not just selected plays even if it is for smaller amounts.
The TPC Boston is one of my favorite venues. I was lucky enough to attend 3 of 4 rounds in 2008 and got to know the course very well…it’s a great setup to watch these guys up close, especially in the early rounds. I won’t go so far as to call it an easy course, but you have to work hard to shoot a big number and if you plan on winning you better be thinking 20-under. The weather that blew through will only serve to make it easier to attack and score well.
In the eight years this event has been played there have been a handful of guys who have been incredibly consistent, both good and bad, led by Vijay who has two wins and five T11 or better in 7 starts. The way he has suddenly come alive after having the back procedure that Freddie did is astonishing and he certainly cannot be overlooked on this course. On the other end of the consistency spectrum is Nick Watney, who has 5 MC’s, a T33, and T46 in his 7 starts. Both guys are great shot makers and fixtures at the top of the world rankings, but this course apparently doesn’t fit Nick’s eye the way it does Vijay’s.
That theme of past performance will weigh heavily on my selections this week along with current form and a little bit of “who needs it more” in relation to the Fedex standings. Bonus points for being from Australia – each of them in the field, except Chalmers, has a top 15 finish and every year, expect 2008, there has been a top 15 Aussie, led by Adam Scott who won the inaugural event in 2003 and Geoff Ogilvy who has four top 7 finishes in 6 tries.
Spreading out about ten units this week -
The Deutsche Bank Fave Five Futures
1u - Steve Stricker (17-1)
1u - Adam Scott (18-1)
.5u - Vijay Singh (36-1)
.5u - Brandt Snedeker (46-1)
.5u - Gary Woodland (50-1)
2nd Tier and Longshot Futures
.25u - Jason Day (22-1)
.25u - Matt Kuchar (24-1)
.25u - Phil Mickelson (32-1)
.25u - Camillo Villegas (55-1)
.1u - Keegan Bradley (95-1)
.1u - Jason Dufner (120-1)
.1u - Scott Piercy (140-1)
.1u - Kyle Stanley (160-1)
.1u - Scott Stallings (290-1)
Tournament Matchups (1 unit each)
Adam Scott +130 vs. Luke Donald
Charl Schwartzel +125 vs. Nick Watney
Vijay Singh -120 vs. Charles Howell III
Geoff Ogilvy +130 vs. David Toms
Keegan Bradley +105 vs. Bo van Pelt
Deutsche Bank Championship
Posted on: September 1, 2011 2:57 pm