Tag:Super Bowl Preview
Posted on: January 29, 2012 12:54 am
 

Super Bowl XLVI Preview: Patriots O vs. Giants D

Breaking news: Brady is key to the Pats winning. (Getty Images)
Posted by Eye on Football Analyst Andy Benoit

It’s this side of the matchup that makes Super Bowl XLVI so compelling. New England’s juggernaut offense against the league’s best four-man pass-rush. Here’s the breakdown.



1. Relevance of rematch factor
What happened in Super Bowl XLII has virtually no bearing on this game. Yes, that game was decided by New York’s front four getting pressure on Tom Brady. And yes, front-four pressure will play a huge role in this Sunday’s game. But the pressure in Super Bowl XLII was schematically generated by the Giants’ inside blitzes (both feigned and real).

This approach compelled the Patriots’ help-blockers to work inside, leaving one-on-one matchups for defensive ends Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora outside. This was a brilliant strategy by Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo because it punished Brady for taking seven-step drops. Those seven-step drops were obligatory in an ’07 Patriots offense that was built around the vertical prowess of Randy Moss.

But as mentioned, that gameplan is now irrelevant, as the ’11 Patriots are built around the horizontal prowess of Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker. What IS relevant is the gameplan the Giants had in Week 9 when they went into Foxboro and forced four turnovers en route to a rare Patriots home loss.

New York’s Week 9 gameplan centered around physical coverage behind a four-man pass-rush. No surprise – that’s how the Giants are built to play. What’s important is to understand HOW the Giants executed this gameplan.

Considering New York’s personnel is basically the same now as it was in Week 9 (only better), there’s no reason to think they won’t go with the same approach again. Let’s dissect that approach.

2. The four-man rush
One thing that sets the Giant’s four-man rush apart – besides an insane collection of talent – is its mismatch-creating versatility. The Giants have used 27 different front four alignments this postseason.

Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul can both slide inside and work against overmatched guards (and every NFL guard, even Pro Bowlers like Logan Mankins and Brian Waters, is overmatched against athletes like JPP and Tuck). They can align linebacker Mathias Kiwanuka anywhere up front. They have a beastly all-around force in Chris Canty (and for what it’s worth, a solid duo of rotating run-stoppers next to him in Rocky Bernard and the underrated Linval Joseph).

Most quality four-man pass-rushes have guys who are either speedy or powerful; Pierre-Paul, Tuck, Kiwanuka and, by defensive tackle standards, Canty, are all speedy AND powerful. This is what creates their versatility, and it’s also what allows the Giants front four to tee-off rushing the passer without becoming vulnerable to the run.

Expect the Giants to jumble their front four looks as much as possible. They also might walk linebackers up to the line of scrimmage just to give Brady and his linemen something to think about. As we talked about last week, the key to beating Brady is to not just get pressure on him, but to make him consciously worry about his protection.

3. New England’s response to New York’s D-line
The Patriots, like 30 other NFL teams, will have their hands full with many of the individual front line matchups against New York. For an elite left guard, Logan Mankins can be surprisingly iffy in protection sometimes. Left tackle Matt Light often rises to the occasion against top-shelf speed-rushers, but it’s a lot to ask of the 33-year-old to block Osi Umenyiora on an island. On the right side, tackle Nate Solder struggled in pass protection last week against Baltimore.

In Week 9, the Patriots were obviously concerned about one-on-one situations in the trenches. They used six or seven offensive linemen on 20 snaps. In the first half, they often kept Gronkowski and, at times even de facto wide receiver Hernandez, in to pass-block. Don’t expect them to do that as much this time around.

New England’s offense has become even more spread-oriented, which means more pass-rush nullifying three-and five-step drop passes. Because of the skill players’ versatility, the hurry-up has become the Patriots’ main offensive attack. Expect them to use frequent hurry up in order to prevent the Giants from rotating defensive linemen.

The Patriots will likely go with their two-receivers, two-tight ends, one-back personnel, and they’ll have different groups of plays already packaged for whatever personnel the Giants defense responds with. A hurry-up will keep the same defensive personnel on the field for an entire series, forcing the 270-plus-pound D-linemen to play snap after snap after snap without rest. The hope is this wears the defense down late in the series and late in the game.

It’s vital that the Patriots win the battle on first and second down. Doing so makes the hurry-up offense more vibrant and, obviously, mitigates the substantial pass-rushing advantage that New York has on third-and-long. Winning on first and second down is hard to do consistently without running the ball at least a little. This is why New England will likely go with the 12 personnel (one back, two tight ends) as opposed to their new 02 personnel package (zero backs, two tight ends, three wide receivers).

Then again, Hernandez has been a surprisingly adroit ballcarrier ... perhaps a no-running back grouping is indeed viable. Or given that they’ve had an extra week to prepare, perhaps the Patriots will debut an all new offensive wrinkle (like they did after their last bye, with the Hernandez backfield packages in the divisional round against Denver).

4. New York’s coverage
The advantage of getting pressure with four is having seven guys to crowd the field in coverage. Few back sevens are as well-equipped to defend the Patriots’ pass game as the Giants’. They have athletic pass-defending linebackers (Michael Boley and Jacquian Williams) who can play laterally. More importantly, those linebackers can exert brutish force against any receivers running shallow inside routes. Those shallow inside routes are the backbone of New England’s passing attack.

The Giants also have versatile safeties who can (maybe) hang with Gronkowski and Hernandez. Deon Grant did a fabulous job on Gronk in Week 9 (he had a great pick in underneath coverage, and overall, Gronkowski’s impact was not as pronounced as his 101 yards suggested).

Antrel Rolle doesn’t run extremely well, but he’s agile enough to compete with Hernandez. In Week 9 Hernandez had not yet blossomed into the über-versatile weapon that he is today. So, Rolle actually spent most of that contest defending Wes Welker in the slot. Rolle got beat late a few times but also made some physical plays in the first half.

Physicality is a key concept. The Giants have capable press corners in Corey Webster and Aaron Ross. Webster is an outside defender who normally shadows the opposing team’s top receiver. Because Welker so often aligns in the slot, and because Deion Branch is not worth putting your best cover guy on, expect Webster to draw a litany of different matchups out wide. Same goes for Ross, who is actually more likely than Webster to cover Welker in the slot.

The Giants played more press-man than usual against the Patriots, and with good success. In the four games in which New England’s offense struggled the most this season, Brady’s completion percentage barely topped 50 when facing safety-help man coverage.

5. New England’s response
The Patriots know that aggressive press coverage can really disrupt the timing of their routes – an especially dubious scenario given that many of their routes are synched with other routes. Expect the go-to receiver to line up off the line of scrimmage as a means of creating more initial spacing (which makes it hard for a defender to deliver a jam). This could mean Welker in the slot, Hernandez in the slot or backfield, Branch in motion, etc. Play action could also take away inside help early in the routes, which bodes well for Welker:

This is an illustration of great route combinations. “Route combinations” refers to how one receiver’s route works hand-in-hand with another receiver’s route to exploit a specific coverage. This play shows a somewhat unusual case of an offense creating throwing lanes against man coverage with space-oriented route combinations (as opposed to regular man-beaters like pick plays, bunches or double crossing patterns).

It’s second-and-five. The Patriots are in a 1 x 2 set out of 12 personnel (one back, two tight ends). Judging by the cornerbacks, the Giants are in man coverage. This is confirmed when Rob Gronkowski goes in motion and Deon Grant follows him.

The matchup Tom Brady likes is Wes Welker against safety Antrel Rolle in the slot. Welker is going to run a deep cross. This is somewhat of a tendency-breaker, as most would expect Welker to run a shallow cross on second-and-five.

The primary intent of Gronkowski’s motion is NOT to verify the coverage, it’s to balance the formation and ensure that Grant will play close to the line of scrimmage. If he’s near the line, he’ll be unable to drop off Gronkowski and jump Welker’s route over the middle.

Don’t be surprised if the Patriots have their tight ends or running backs run patterns outside the numbers while the receivers run patterns inside. This would put pressure on the linebackers and safeties to play with more speed than power and make it more difficult for corners to count on a little help over the shallow middle (which most corners need). These inside-outside crossing elements are also natural man coverage beaters, which the Patriots must rely on.

Because Brady runs like he’s wearing ski boots, defenses facing New England don’t have to commit a linebacker to shadowing the quarterback. Thus, they essentially have one extra player at their disposal. The Patriots mitigate this defensive advantage by crafting creative route design concepts:

Upon the snap, there are two key elements:

1. Welker is coming out of the slot, not off the line of scrimmage. Thus, he has about two yards between him and Rolle, which is enough to prevent Rolle from exerting a physical jam.

2. Brady fakes a handoff to Danny Woodhead. This slows the pass-rush just enough to give Welker the time needed to execute his deep cross. More importantly, it distracts linebackers Mathias Kiwanuka and Michael Boley. They might be in a man-read assignment, meaning if Woodhead goes right, the linebacker to that side (Boley) picks him up. If he goes left, then Kiwanuka picks him up. In that case, the design of the run action was outstanding because, by starting Woodhead on the left side and running him off the fake to the right flat, the attention of both linebackers is drawn. That’s what happened here, as Boley and Kiwanuka both responded to the fake by stepping forward and becoming non-factors in this play.

(Note: It’s also possible that Boley had Woodhead straight-up, with Kiwanuka serving as a free-roaming lurk defender. If that’s the case, then Kiwanuka played this exceptionally poorly.)

Being drawn forward, the linebackers are unable to sense Welker’s crossing route and unable to give Rolle any sort of help inside. Thus, Rolle is caught playing too far outside.

On the left side, Gronkowski ran a very shallow out-route while Chad Ochocinco ran his out towards the sideline. Both of these routes were designed to widen the defense and create a big open gap for Welker.

Overall, this play had a combination of four routes working together: Woodhead’s flat on the right, Gronkowski’s out and Ochocinco’s fly on the left and Welker’s deep cross down the middle. The result: an easy 25-yard completion to arguably the league’s best slot receiver.

Again, the crossing patterns are natural man-beaters. So are bunch and stack alignments, which are great for pushing a defense into off-coverage and creating space for quick-striking throws. These tactics will replace a lot of would-be run plays in New England’s up-tempo offense.

Check our NFL expert picks for all the Super Bowl

Follow @Andy_Benoit on Twitter or contact him at Andy.Benoit-at-NFLTouchdown.com.
Posted on: January 29, 2012 12:23 am
Edited on: January 30, 2012 9:13 am
 

Super Bowl XLVI Preview: Giants O vs. Patriots D

The G-Men's offensive attack is even more dangerous this time. (Getty Images)
Posted by Eye on Football Analyst Andy Benoit

The Giants offense and Patriots defense have both elevated their play this postseason. But that doesn’t mean this matchup isn’t glaringly lopsided. Here’s the breakdown.



1. Relevance of rematch factor
The Super Bowl XLII film is worthless for analyzing Super Bowl XLVI. Vince Wilfork is the only Patriots defensive player left from the ’07 roster, while the ’07 Giants offense featured possession targets Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer at wide receiver and was built entirely around the run. What’s more, Eli Manning at the time was a 27-year-old glorified game-manager, not a 31-year-old superstar.

This year’s Week 9 matchup is almost equally irrelevant, for the simple reason that the Giants were without wide receiver Hakeem Nicks, running back Ahmad Bradshaw, fullback Henry Hynoski and center David Baas. Will Beatty was still at left tackle and David Diehl was still at left guard.

The Patriots were still using safety Devin McCourty at cornerback, Josh Barrett was playing safety, current Seahawk Phillip Adams was the nickelback and defensive end Andre Carter had not yet injured his quad.

The Giants are not the same offense without Nicks. Even so, the Patriots that day had trouble stopping the pass. With Nicks back, things might get real ugly for them.

2. The mismatch: Giants receivers vs. Patriots secondary
This matchup is what makes it hard to pick the Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI.

Simply put, they don’t have one cornerback who can defend Nicks, Victor Cruz or even Mario Manningham. Starting corner Kyle Arrington matched up on Cruz with plenty of safety help last game and got torched. With Nicks healthy, Cruz slides back to the slot, where he could face Julian Edelman. That a wide receiver plays in the nickel package tells you everything about what Bill Belichick and his staff think of backup corners Nate Jones and Antwaun Molden.

On the other side, Sterling Moore will see plenty of Nicks. Moore has made great strides down the stretch, but we’re still talking about an undrafted rookie safety playing corner against an elite playmaking wideout.

Even if the Patriots commit fully to coverage and play two-man (which is man-to-man with two safeties helping over the top), they’re still vulnerable. None of their corners are great in man and none of their safeties, aside from Patrick Chung (who’s a better hitter than ball hawk) have proven themselves. True, those safeties have flourished this postseason, but that was against Denver and Baltimore, two of the worst man-beating offenses in football.

The Patriots don’t have a good enough pass-rush for their secondary to sustain man coverage anyway. Thus, expect Bill Belichick to do what he’s done most of this season: put his men in bend-but-don’t-break schemes and hope to compensate with red zone stops and turnovers.

The Giants will gladly go to work against cautious zone coverages. They’re a big-play offense – not with home runs so much as doubles and triples. Thanks to a solid pass-blocking O-line and coordinator Kevin Gilbride’s shrewd route combination designs, the Giants thrive on 15-25-yard completions, both strictly through the air or via the catch-and-run. This multidimensional potency stems from the brilliance of the quarterback.

3. Eli
We’ve trumpeted the younger Manning in virtually every Film Room post for the past two months, so admittedly, what you’re about to read is somewhat redundant. But with this being the Super Bowl, and in Peyton’s house, and amidst so much talk about both Mannings’ legacy, it’s appropriate to hammer home the point: Eli Manning is as good as any quarterback in the world right now.

His arm strength and accuracy are as good as any passer’s, which is why the Giants have so much success with the deep-outs:

New York’s money play is the deep-out. Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham run this route (known on the route tree as the seven route) as effectively as any trio in the game. All have great footwork and are hands-catchers – two important elements near the sideline. A lot of teams don’t consistently run this pattern because it requires a quarterback with incredible arm strength and timing.

His presnap and postsnap decision-making are as sharp as any player’s, his pocket mobility and improvisational abilities are as impressive as any quarterback’s and his moxie and leadership and all those other vague Tebow-like attributes are phenomenal.

This is another reason the Patriots will likely assume a conservative – if not passive – defensive approach. By being complex and aggressive, they make it about whether Manning can out-execute them. By being basic, they make it about Manning AND everyone else out-executing them. When you figure Manning is going to out-execute them anyway, it’s sensible that the Patriots would want to put the game in other skill players’ hands.

4. New York’s run game
Given what’s been written in this post thus far, it might seem the Giants would be doing the Patriots a favor by running the ball. Perhaps they would. But take a step back and understand that, all in all, the Giants offense is still built around balance. It has been ever since Tom Coughlin arrived.

Despite still having Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, the Giants run game is nowhere near what it was last time these teams met on a Super Bowl stage. It had a late-season surge, but at Green Bay and San Francisco, it looked a lot like the 32nd ranked rushing attack it was all year.

That said this rushing attack was actually able to pound the rock inside with Jacobs in Week 9. And the Patriots have yet to see Bradshaw. Having Brandon Spikes once again healthy has done wonders for New England’s front seven; he and Jerod Mayo are both excellent downhill thumpers. But given New York’s aerial acumen, it’s doubtful the Patriots will bring run-defending safeties Patrick Chung or James Ihedigbo into the box much this game. It will be on the defensive line to continue to be stout against the run.

5. New England’s saving grace…?
There is one area where the Patriots D has a clear advantage: up front inside. Nose tackle Vince Wilfork is a behemoth top-tier star coming off an otherworldly AFC Championship performance. On Sunday he’ll have the luxury of facing banged-up and highly-disappointing center David Baas.

The Patriots played a lot of 4-3 fronts in Week 9; it might be prudent to go more 3-4 this time just to ensure that Wilfork can line up directly over Baas. Wilfork is certainly capable of beating guards Kevin Boothe or Chris Snee, and on most plays he’s going to eventually draw a double-team no matter where he aligns.

But the Patriots have next to no chance at stopping this offense if they don’t get at least a few dominant penetrations from their best player. Putting him over Baas gives him the best chance for that.

Check our NFL expert picks for all the Super Bowl

Follow @Andy_Benoit on Twitter or contact him at Andy.Benoit-at-NFLTouchdown.com.
 
 
 
 
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