Coach Killers is your weekly look around the league at those performances, decisions and "Wait, what did he just do?!" moments that put the guy in charge squarely on the ol' hot seat. (Getty Images)

Posted by Ryan Wilson

Justin King, CB, Rams. No one had a tougher day than King, who probably headed to work Sunday morning thinking, "Man, Lee Evans is out with an injury and the Ravens will have to put Torrey Smith out there against me. And he's a rookie!" By the time it was over (and it was over in record time), King would've happily taken his chances against Evans.

Instead he was torched (and we can't stress that enough) by Smith, who hauled in three first-quarter touchdowns of 18, 41 and 74 yards. Smith, who had seen limited action the first two weeks because somebody somewhere thought he wasn't comfortable enough in the offense, finished the day with five receptions for 152 yards.

To his credit, King took responsibility for what Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco and Smith did to him.

Week 3 Recap

Eye on Photos, Week 3: Buffalo is 3-0! Judge: Vick OK, but Philly has serious problems Brinson: Sorting the Sunday Pile, Week 3 Katzowitz: As usual, Fox is still backing Orton Prisco: Week 3 NFL team-by-team grades Week 3 NFL Scoreboard, Recaps

"You know what, I just could have made the play,'' King said when asked what he could have done differently in the Rams' 37-7 loss to the Ravens on Sunday. "That's what I get paid to do. I'm paid to man-up on guys. He made (plays) and I got beat. I have to show character now and get back to work and fix the mistakes.''

King also verbalized what became apparent about two plays into the game. "I didn't give [Flacco] a reason not to throw it at me,'' he said.

No, no you didn't. But we applaud the positive attitude.

Antonio Cromartie, CB, Jets. Cromartie has been a perfectly adequate cornerback for the Jets, which would make him a really could CB on most other teams. But because he plays opposite Darrelle Revis, he's usually the guy offenses target. Eventually, that means you're due for a rough stretch, and Cromartie found it against the Raiders.

He was called for four penalties (two for pass interference and two for holding), two of which came on Oakland touchdown drives. But it was a special teams faux paus that doomed the Jets.

Following a Raiders touchdown that gave them a 24-17 lead with 40 seconds left in the third quarter, Cromartie muffed a Sebastian Janikowski kickoff that was -- you guessed it -- recovered by Oakland. Two plays later, Michael Bush scored from a yard out, the Raiders led 31-17 and the Jets' afternoon, for all intents and purposes, was over.

Making an already crappy day worse for Cromartie? He suffered bruised ribs and lungs in the loss.

Regarding the muffed kickoff, head coach Rex Ryan was able to succinctly put things into perspective. “When you look at it in hindsight … obviously, [Cromartie] should have let it go,” Ryan said. “At the time, the guy’s trying to make a play.”

Coincidentally, Raiders owner Al Davis tried to sign Cromartie prior to training camp, and reportedly offered him more than the four-year, $32 million deal he ended up signing to return to New York. On Sunday, it was almost as if Cromartie was playing for Oakland because he sure played a big role in their win.

Bears pass-catchers/running game/o-line. Basically everybody but Jay Cutler, who we've never cared much for but feel obligated to defend because he's suddenly become the poster boy for the wussification of the quarterback position. Even though, by virtue of taking 400 hits a week, might be one of the NFL's toughest players. (Michael Vick and Ben Roethlisberger may disagree, but we're quite certain they're the only QBs who'd have a legitimate gripe.)

Last week, we highlighted Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz in this space because he thought it would be a swell idea to pass the ball on 82 percent of the offensive snaps which, predictably, led to Cutler taking six sacks against the Saints, countless hits and an admission that he didn't know if he'd survive the season.

Against the Packers, Cutler's pass-catchers didn't do him any favors. Roy Williams, Johnny Knox and Kellen Davis all dropped what should've been easy receptions. And running back Matt Forte, who recently announced that the team clearly doesn't consider him an elite back sought to prove just that by rushing for two (!) yards on nine carries. (Related: Cutler led the team in rushing with 11 yards on three attempts.)

Nothing went right for Chicago, including what should have been the niftiest special teams touchdown we can remember. Unfortunately, the officials threw a flag on … something and the play was called back. We can't even blame Martz for that.


Chris Johnson, RB, Titans. This is the first time in Coach Killers history that a player from the winning team has made the list, but Johnson has been nothing short of dreadful since signing that fat contract just in time for the regular season. In three games, CJ's rushed for 98 yards on 46 carries, which works out to a mind-blowing 2.1 yards per carry. The next touchdown he scores will be his first.

We had him unofficially hitting rock bottom following the Titans' victory over the Broncos Sunday. Tennessee's two leading rushers? Johnson and … punter Brett Kern, who both galloped for 21 yards. It gets worse: Johnson needed 12 more carries than Kern, who managed to run 21 yards at one time after bobbling a poor snap during a fourth-down play in which he had every intention of punting the ball. Instead, he fielded the short-hop, ran down the sidelines, and 21 yards later, the Titans had a first down and quite possibly a new threat in the running game.

In case we haven't reminded you in 15 minutes, there's a reason you shouldn't overpay running backs. Silver lining to the dark cloud of losing Kenny Britt: Johnson did catch four passes for 54 receiving yards. Maybe the Titans should give serious consideration to splitting him out wide. It's not like he can get worse, right?

Ochocinco might not be long for New England (Getty Images)

Chad Ochocinco, WR, Patriots. If Ochocinco and Terrell Owens were Batman and Robin a year ago in Cincinnati, the 2011 Ochocinco is the NFL pass-catching equivalent of Wile E. Coyote. The man can't catch a break -- or a pass -- and on Sunday you could make the case that it played a non-trivial part in the Patriots losing to the Bills.

With Aaron Hernandez and Taylor Price out with injuries, Week 3 was supposed to be Ochocinco's opportunity to show that he had a grasp of the Patriots' offense and had earned Tom Brady's trust. Instead, he looked lost, as he often has this season, and in addition to running the wrong route (that led to one of Brady's four interceptions), he also had a huge drop in the fourth quarter that would've been an easy touchdown.

(If New England gets rid of Ochocinco -- and at this point we don't think it would surprise anyone if they did -- perhaps they can unload him on the Bears, who seem eager to corner the market on no-catching wideouts.)

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Has Mike Martz finally learned his lesson? (Getty Images)

Posted by Ryan Wilson

It is with an acute sense of "Hey, haven't we heard this before?" that we read the Dan Pompei column in the Chicago Tribune suggesting that Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz has learned a very valuable lesson from last Sunday's 30-13 loss to the Saints. A loss that included six Jay Cutler sacks, multiple Jay Cutler hits, and a post-game Jay Cutler admission that he's pretty sure he won't survive the 2011 season.

Martz called pass plays on 52 of Chicago's 63 offensive snaps (that works out to a whopping 83 percent), presumably paying no attention to beating Cutler was taking. It was so bad that Martz earned a name-check in our weekly Coach Killers column, and Bears coach Lovie Smith said that "I know the balance as far as running/pass wasn't there. All I can say is we'll get it better. You can't win football games with that type of balance."

No. No, you can't.

But Pompei thinks the Saints game will be a turning point in the Bears' season, the moment when Martz finally realizes that he needs to run the ball, too. Partly, for health reasons as they relate to Cutler but also because Matt Forte is a pretty good running back. (In related news: Forte is under the impression the Bears don't consider him an elite back. Weird.)

"The Bears probably would have lost that game no matter what plays Mike Martz called," Pompei wrote Saturday. "But because he tossed aside the run game as if it were a bill he didn't have sufficient funds to pay, he's going to have to pay interest now.

"Martz designs plays better than the large majority of coaches in his position. He has a great feel for how to attack defenses. He is one of the premier offensive minds in the modern era of football. But he needs a figurative slap in the face now and then. Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams gave him one."

That's putting it lightly.

Here's the thing: we've seen this movie before. Martz falls in love with the passing game, bad stuff happens, and he briefly pays lip service to the running game until the cycle repeats itself.

For fun, we consulted the Football Outsiders offensive efficiency rankings for the last three Martz-coached teams (all as offensive coordinators):

2010 Bears: 19th rushing, 28th passing, 28th overall;
2008 49ers: 24th rushing, 26th passing, 27th overall;
2007 Lions: 25th rushing, 19th passing, 24th overall;
2006 Lions: 32nd rushing, 20th passing, 28th overall.

Granted, some of the ineptitude listed above had to do with the personnel on those teams. But Martz has to shoulder some of the blame. More than that, if it's clear that dialing up one passing play after the next will get your quarterback killed, it doesn't require much in the way of football smarts to call running plays.

According to Football Outsiders' adjusted sack rate statistic (defined as "sacks per pass attempt adjusted for down, distance, and opponent"), the Bears ranked 32nd in 2010, the 49ers were 31st in 2008, and the Lions were 26th in 2007 and 30th in 2006.

So, sure, Martz might be the biggest brain in the room. But he's dreadful when it comes to making in-game adjustments. But who knows. Maybe this is the moment he fully commits to the running game. That said, Sunday seems like a bad time to turn over a new leaf -- the Bears are hosting the Packers.

After their second straight victory last week, the Green Bay Packers will travel to Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears on Sunday. NFL.com's Pat Kirwan and Jason Horowitz preview this upcoming game.

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Posted by Josh Katzowitz

As CBSSports.com’s Ryan Wilson pointed out in this week’s version of Coach Killers, Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz’s play-calling was slightly off-balance last week. In that of the Bears' 63 plays run on offense, Chicago compiled 52 pass plays.

But that percentage, which coach Lovie Smith has dissected and has claimed will move closer to 50-50 this Sunday, might not only get Smith fired (or, more likely, Martz). Apparently, it’s also indirectly inflamed Matt Forte, who has 324 total yards through the first two games (that ranks him second in the league behind Carolina’s Steve Smith).

Forte told reporters, via CSN Chicago, that he believes that the Bears think he is not an elite player, and that’s why he hasn’t received the long-term contract he feels he deserves. And while we assume Forte is talking about Bears general manager Jerry Angelo, he could also be mentioning Martz and his desire not to run the ball.

"I'd like to get paid off of the production," Forte said. "When you look at the production and what level that's on and you look at some of the guys who are producing and what they get paid, it's not that hard."

Detractors, I suppose, could point to Forte’s 117 total rushing yards, which ranks him 17th in the league, and claim that Forte isn’t running the ball effectively. But his total offensive production would make that claim dubious.

Forte -- who will make $600,000 in the last year of his current deal -- has made it known for quite some time that he wants more money, and in the offseason, it seemed like the two sides were closing in on a new deal. In fact, Forte even said, “I think we're going about it the right way.”

Forte obviously doesn’t feel that way anymore.

I’m not saying Martz is the one to blame here, but perhaps Forte is correct: maybe the Bears don’t believe he’s the player that he believes that he is. Either that, or he’s saying that to put pressure on Chicago to come to a deal.

Either way, Forte is not a happy man, but for now, there doesn’t appear to be much he can do about it.

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Coach Killers is your weekly look around the league at those performances, decisions and "Wait, what did he just do?!" moments that put the guy in charge squarely on the ol' hot seat. (Getty Images)

Posted by Ryan Wilson

Mike Martz, offensive coordinator, Bears. We don't know if Martz has designs on ever getting another head coaching gig, but you have to wonder if he's trying to get Lovie Smith fired with that game plan against the Saints Sunday. Martz has never been known as an OC particularly interested in protecting the quarterback, and that goes back to his days with Kurt Warner and the Rams in the late 1990s-early 2000s.

But it's a potentially lethal combination when you have Jay Cutler under center and a porous Bears offensive line in front of him. Making matters more problematic: facing the Saints and their defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, who has yet to meet a pressure scheme he wouldn't try.

So what did Martz do? Of the Bears' 63 offensive snaps, he called 52 pass plays. Which made for a Perfect Storm of Pain for Cutler, who was 19 for 45 for 244 yards and a touchdown. He also lost a fumble and was sacked six times.

Cue ESPN blogger Kevin Seifert: "Martz is well-known for his pass-happy ways, but his notable adjustment toward the running game last season was among the most important factors in the Bears' NFC North title. So it's worth noting that coach Lovie Smith rebuked Martz's approach Monday, in his own gentle way, and agreed it was not a formula for success."

Smith told reporters Monday that "I know the balance as far as running/pass wasn't there. All I can say is we'll get it better. You can't win football games with that type of balance."

Smith added: "It just happened. It happens like that sometimes and we'll clean it up. I'm not going to sit here and tell you the reason why. I'm just going to tell you we have to get the balance a lot better, and we will. We didn't do that [Sunday] for a lot of different reasons."

In case it's not blindingly obvious: Martz is the reason why.

It's only a matter of time before Jags fans start sporting 1.8 jerseys.

Luke McCown, quarterback, Jaguars. Here was the Jacksonville.com headline nine days ago, after the Jaguars defeated the Titans, 16-14, in the regular-season opener: "Luke McCown lauded for execution of Jaguars' game plan." The only way that headline would work two weeks in a row is if head coach Jack Del Rio admitted in the post-game presser that the team "Took an unconventional approach to getting rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert on the field. Instead of just pulling McCown, we thought it made more sense to embarrass him out of a job. I think we accomplished that."

But Del Rio didn't say that. Instead, after watching McCown's clown college-inspired performance against the Jets, all the Jags coach could offer up was a pithy recounting of the obvious. “It was a good whooping."

Way to undersell it, Jack. It was so much more than that. McCown, the guy Del Rio installed as the starter after unceremoniously dumping David Garrard a day before the NFL season opened, was impossibly awful. By the time Del Rio pulled McCown from the game after three quarters, he had completed 6 of 19 passes for 59 yards and four interceptions. It gets worse: his passer rating was 1.8. To get a sense for how truly terrible that is, consider this: if McCown just took the snap from center and spiked the ball into the turf on all 19 of his pass attempts and finished the day 0 for 19 for 0 yards, 0 TDs and 0 INTs, his passer rating would be 39.6.

Maybe that's a flaw in the formula, but the the overall point remains: the Jaguars were markedly worse off when they let McCown try a forward pass.

“I’ve got to do better," McCown said, presumably with a straight face. 

Clearly. But it's unfair to blame him completely; it's not like we expected him to be anything other than a below-replacement-level NFL quarterback. Ultimately, fault lies with Del Rio, who seems to have a knack for inexplicable decisions while somehow managing not to lose his job.

"I guess the immediate next question is what are you gonna do going forward, and my answer is that we'll discuss that as a staff," Del Rio said after the Jets game. "I made the decision in this ballgame to let Blaine play and get some experience, and we'll go from there. ... We're gonna do the things that make sense for us to win on Sunday.""

We have a very hard time believing that last sentence given how the previous two weeks have played out. But it could be worse, Del Rio could be coaching the Chiefs. Which brings us to…

Matt Cassel, quarterback, Chiefs. Like McCown, Cassel is a victim of circumstance. He's also a grown man, an NFL quarterback and Pro Bowler so he should be able to handle the criticism, particularly after what the Chiefs have perpetrated against the game of football in recent weeks. Head coach Todd Haley, once hailed as an offensive mastermind, looks more like a guy just back from an alien abduction that has been programmed to set offenses back 100 years.

Haley's also the man who commandeered play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Charlie Weis before last season's playoff loss to the Ravens, an ugly game that foreshadowed life without Charlie, who bolted for the University of Florida in January. Now, two games into 2011 and the Chiefs are, by any measure, the worst team in the league.

It all starts with Cassel, who has a respectable completion percentage (63.8 percent on 37 of 58 passing), but is managing a paltry 4.3 yards per attempt, has just one touchdown and four interceptions, including a three-pick effort in the Chiefs' 48-3 no-show performance against the Lions Sunday. Cassel's passer rating through two weeks: 50.4. By comparison, he had just seven interceptions in 2010, and sported a passer rating of 93.0.

Another not-so-fun fact, courtesy of STATS: "Kansas City lost its first two games by a combined margin of 79 points, the worst scoring differential to start a season for the Chiefs since losing the first two games of the 2007 season by 27 points."

Ah, yes, the halcyon days of losing by an average of just 13.5 point a game.

While it's a tad unfair to lay the unending ineptitude at Cassel's feet, it's not completely Haley's fault, either. The Kansas City Star's Sam Mellinger writes that "Blaming this entirely on Haley is both lazy and dishonest. You’re looking at the wrong guy. Focus away from the head coach for a moment, and look at the general manager."

We couldn't agree more. The problem: general manager Scott Pioli does the hiring and firing. If it comes down to canning himself or the head coach, we're guessing Haley will be the first to go. The only question is when (we have Halloween in the office pool). Cassel might get to the end of the season, but that has more to do with convenience than loyalty. The Chiefs have the great misfortune of being one of the league's worst teams playing one of the toughest schedules. Which means that the "Do we have a shot at Andrew Luck" conversations have begun in earnest. 

NFL Week 2

Eye on Photos, Week 2: the Bills are 2-0! Judge: Newton superb, green early in his career Prisco: If Vick leaves so does Philly momentum Freeman: Dunta deserves ban for cheap shot Brinson: Go ahead and bury Kansas City Podcast: NFL Week 2 recap and review

Seahawks wide receivers, cornerbacks (alo acceptable: players not named Earl Thomas). It's not like anyone expected Seattle to waltz into Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers. Vegas listed the Seahawks as 14-point dogs, and the Steelers were motivated in their home-opener after an embarrassing loss in Baltimore in Week 1. Plus, it's not an exaggeration to suggest that, outside of safety Earl Thomas, Seattle doesn't have one legitimate playmaker. That severely limits your chances in a play-making league.

Also not helping: dropped passes and cornerbacks who either play 15-yard cushions or bump-and-run coverage without the bumping.

Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson is in an untenable situation. Against the Steelers, the game plan involved quick, short passes and running the ball. Neither worked, so the few times Jackson attempted to throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield, the play often ended with his receivers dropping the pass. This goes back to the lack of play-makers; Sidney Rice didn't play, and there's no reason to think that Mike Williams, who ate himself out of the league once before, or Chris Durham would suddenly morph into something other than possession receivers. Then again, Jackson's not Drew Brees whe in comes to accuracy, either.Yahoo.com's Doug Farrar joked during the game that "Jackson should be taken off the field for the safety of his receivers. He's hanging them out to dry all over the place."

So, yeah, terrible football a two-way street.

The excellent Field Gulls blog does a nice job of breaking down cornerback Brandon Browner's curious day.

"Most of his struggles are easy to explain as him lacking the speed and awareness to cover a wide receiver like Mike Wallace. 'Speed' here isn't just straight-line speed. Browner may be athletic enough to still play cornerback at 6'4", but he does not turn on a dime, he lacks the short-area quickness to go up against these smaller guys. …

"…[M]ore curious … the lack of jam from Browner. He was occasionally lined up five or six yards off the line, which in itself is an odd use of Browner's talents. Where [Marcus] Trufant used such cushions in this game to make sure he could at least contain against long runs, Browner looked inept trying to executed the same idea. And even when lined up right on his man, he seemed hesitant to put a hand on him, even just to shove him to the outside lane. I have no explanation there. Perhaps he was intimidated by the receivers' speed, perhaps he was instructed to be extra careful with his hands for fear of penalties."

No need to worry. This is all part of head coach Pete Carroll's yet-to-be-explained-in-detail Plan. We're guessing it involves comfortable khakis and Andrew Luck.

Offense, defense, special teams, Miami Dolphins. Upside: it's not all Chad Henne's fault. Bad news: the Dolphins are still 0-2 -- at home -- and the season could be over before the month is out. It also doesn't help when head coach Tony Sparano can only muster a "I don't have any answers" post-game response following the Dolpins' loss to the Texans Sunday. "It’s baffling to me," Sparano continued. "It really is … We’ve got to do a better job."

After a solid showing in Week 1 against the Pats, Henne looked more like himself against Houston, finishing the game 12 of 30 for 170 yards with a touchdown and an interception. But the lack of points is an offense-wide problem.

“I think it’s a little bit of everything — mental mistakes, the fundamentals, executing,” running back Reggie Bush said, according to the Miami Herald. “When we have our opportunities, because we do have opportunities as we did out here [Sunday], we have to make them. That’s what the good teams do. They take advantage of their opportunities. And that’s what we don’t do very well.”

On the other side of the ball, the defense had the opposite problem. Linebacker Kevin Burnett, like Sparano doesn't have an explanation for the slow start.

“Right now I don’t know what to say,” he said. “We’ve got to win our one-on-one battles. If you win one-on-ones, eventually we’ll pull out a victory."

Theoretically, yes. But the the scoring issues are exacerbated when the most consistent player on the team, kicker Dan Carpenter, goes 2 for 4. Granted, the 22-yard chipshot that was blocked wasn't his fault, but he honked a 34-yarder, too. Six points doesn't matter when you lose by 10, but presumably the Dolphins aren't planning to lose every game by double-digit margins. Because if they don't get their act together Bill Parcells might actually walk through that door.

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Posted by Josh Katzowitz

It’s been a whirlwind week for Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher. His mother, Lavoyda Lenard, died suddenly, and though he expected to take a few days off to grieve and be with his family, Urlacher returned to Halas Hall on Thursday, presumably to practice and get his mind off his mom for maybe just a few hours.

Sounds like his teammates -- who, if possible, seem to respect Urlacher even more now after he showed up for Thursday’s practice -- will do everything in their power to support him through this difficult time.

That’s why, as reported by the Chicago Tribune, a Bears contingent will travel to Lovington, N.M., in order to attend Lenard’s funeral Saturday and to be present for Urlacher.

The traveling party will include coach Lovie Smith, team chairman George McCaskey, president Ted Phillips, general manager Jerry Angelo, linebackers coach Bob Babich and linebacker Lance Briggs.

"Brian is family,'' Smith said, via the newspaper. "We see it like a family member passed away. So of course we're going to be there. The Bears will be represented well. We want to be there to show our support and help Brian as much as we can through a tough time.''

The funeral is scheduled for 10 a.m. Saturday, and the Bears crew will then fly to New Orleans for their Sunday matchup against the Saints. Urlacher, at some point, will follow, since he’s scheduled to start. Smith, whose mother died a week after the NFC championship guy, can relate to the emotions Urlacher is having.

"My mother, she let the season end, then she chose to go be with God,'' he said. "That's how her timing was.

"You know that being in a profession, you have to have plans for deaths that happen through the course of the year. And our plan is pretty simple: We put football on the back burner. We let that person do everything he needs to do ... That's exactly how we do it around here.''

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Posted by Josh Katzowitz

Each Saturday, we’ll take the best -- and most clever -- odds collected by bodog.com for the upcoming week and give our take. This is important stuff, perhaps the most important post you’ll read all week. Because if you can’t lose money while watching a game in which you have absolutely no effect, what’s the point of watching sports at all?

Top-five Super Bowl picks

New England Patriots 11/2 
     
Green Bay Packers 7/1

Philadelphia Eagles 15/2  
    
San Diego Chargers 11/1

New Orleans Saints 12/1

Bottom-five Super Bowl picks

Cleveland Browns 100/1

Washington Redskins 100/1 
             
Carolina Panthers 125/1

Cincinnati Bengals 150/1

Buffalo Bills 150/1

The big change in the Super Bowl odds has to do with Peyton Manning and the Colts. Bodog’s head oddsmaker Adam Young explains: "When someone as important to a team as Peyton Manning is questionable for one or more games to start a season we are almost forced to pull down their season win total and divisional odds and in turn those of the Texans.  We have left up the Super Bowl odds with the Colts moving up from 16-1 to 20-1 and the Texans down from 28-1 to 20-1."

So, my advice: don’t put your money on the Colts. Instead, I’d put your money on New Orleans to win the whole thing.

Will Tiki Barber play in a game in the 2011 regular season? 
       
Yes 3/1   

Nope. Only the Dolphins have thought enough of Barber to give him a workout, and we’re not flabbergasted enough to think that somebody else will be that desperate to give him another chance.

Who will be the first coach fired in the 2011 regular season? 

Jack Del Rio 3/1

Tony Sparano 7/2

Gary Kubiak 11/2

Marvin Lewis 15/2

Tom Coughlin 15/2

Mike Shanahan 10/1

Norv Turner 10/1

Lovie Smith 12/1

Andy Reid 15/1

Field 2/1

You have to think the decision to release David Garrard and start Luke McCown until Blaine Gabbert is ready to play will seal Del Rio’s fate. At least with Garrard as the starter and with Manning out for the time being, you’d think the Jaguars would have a chance at the postseason and the chance to save Del Rio’s chance. There’s no chance now.

Terrelle Pryor -- total starts at quarterback in the 2011 regular season  
    
Over ½ (+110)

Under ½  (-140)

It’s the Raiders. Of course you go with the over.

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Posted by Eye on Football Analyst Andy Benoit



On paper, the top two seeds from last season’s NFC playoffs are both improved heading into 2011. Consequently, the Atlanta Falcons have become somewhat of a trendy Super Bowl pick. But the Chicago Bears? They’re the team most are picking to finish right behind Detroit in the NFC North. In analyzing five key threads these teams share, we might understand why.

1. Receiver Infusion
Thomas Dimitroff realized that Atlanta’s offense was a playmaker short of being nearly unstoppable. So, the fourth-year general manager traded five premium draft picks to move up and select Alabama wideout Julio Jones sixth overall.

Jones is a great fit because he’s not only a dynamic downfield threat who also has the thickness to go inside, but thanks to his days in the Crimson Tide’s black-and-blue offense, he’s also a savvy downfield blocker. That’s important, as Falcons offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey has always had a predilection for power runs out of two tight-end/two back formations.

In Chicago, with a system built around downfield routes out of three-and four-receiver formations, offensive coordinator Mike Martz needed more firepower outside. Instead of reaching for an unproven wideout late in the first round, overpaying for free agents Santana Moss or Santonio Holmes or taking a risk on Braylon Edwards (attitude) or Plaxico Burress (rustiness), the Bears acquired  Roy Williams after his star fully plummeted in Dallas.

Williams, a straight-line runner with big hands and feet, was never a good fit for the Cowboys’ shifty catch-and-run oriented system. But in the 28 games he played for Martz in Detroit, Williams produced 2,148 yards receiving. However, whatever optimism the Detroit success instilled was likely blown away by Williams’ dropped passes and admission to being out of shape this past August (candor has always been his Achilles heel).

Because the Bears refuse to admit that Devin Hester is merely a return specialist with modest slot receiving ability (i.e. NOT a starter), it was rising third-year pro Johnny Knox whom Williams supplanted in the lineup. Knox, who has superb speed and quickness and excellent chemistry with Jay Cutler, particularly in deciphering zone coverages, is eager to recapture his starting job (and thus, his leverage for a new contract in the near future). He will, if Williams continues to struggle. And the Bears’ passing game will essentially be right back in the same place it was a year ago.

The Falcons figure to clearly have an improved pass attack. The Bears are TBD.

2. Big meaty offensive lines
To put it politely, Atlanta’s and Chicago’s offensive lines both feature more size than athleticism. The lunch pail approach has worked great for the Falcons. They have a straightforward power-run offense that’s conducive to forming good chemistry up front. In the passing game (where a line’s athletic limitations get exposed), the Falcons rarely use more than three wide receivers, which makes an extra tight end or running back available to stay in and block. In short, the Falcons can bend their system for their offensive line.
 
The Bears, on the other hand, are more inclined to bend (or break) their offensive line for their system. Martz frequently has Cutler take seven-step drops, which only gives heavy-footed offensive tackle J’Marcus Webb, laterally stiff guard Chris Williams and the rest of the front more time to get beat in pass protection. Also, with the running back often being an important receiving option in Martz’s system, Bears linemen must shoulder more responsibility in blitz identification and pickup – an area in which they’ve struggled.

Hence, the 52 times Cutler was sacked last season.

3. The traditional  4-3 defense: evolve vs. resolve
Mike Smith was a classic zone-based 4-3 defensive coordinator in Jacksonville. But over his three seasons in Atlanta, he’s drifted away from vanilla Cover 2 tactics and towards more diverse blitzes and zone exchanges. Impressive considering he employs these tactics out of traditional base and nickel sets.
 
Lovie Smith was a classic zone-based 4-3 defensive coordinator in St. Louis. Over his seven years in Chicago, he’s ... remained a proponent of classic 4-3 zone-based defense.

The Bears are the only team that virtually still runs a fulltime strict Cover 2. They’ve made it work largely because they have two perfect linebackers for this scheme in Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. But as we’ll explore more in-depth another week, there are significant vulnerabilities to a Cover 2. Those vulnerabilities are why Smith and the Falcons have chosen to evolve.

4. The No. 2 defensive end
Arguably the best two defensive ends in the NFC are Julius Peppers and John Abraham. Both have devastating explosiveness off the edge and both can play the run (Peppers is by far the NFL’s best all-around run-stopping 4-3 end; Abraham is more finesse-oriented but is still underrated as a backside chaser).

What the Falcons learned last season is a pass-rush is incomplete without a second outside presence. Kroy Biermann is a very active run-defender, but he registered just three sacks in his debut season as a starter. So, Thomas Dimitroff spent $11 million (guaranteed) on free agent Ray Edwards, who each of the past two years in Minnesota posted at least eight sacks against frequent one-on-one blocking opposite Jared Allen. Edwards is also an adept all-around run-defender.

The Bears have a stalwart No. 2 pass-rusher of their own in Israel Idonije. Versatile enough to line up inside or outside, the ninth-year veteran tied Peppers for the team lead in sacks last season (eight). Idonije does not quite have Edwards’ quickness around the corner, but he’s one of the best in the league at executing stunts.

5. Safeties
Over the years, watching the Bears try out different young safeties in the starting lineup has been like watching Gilbert Brown try on outfits that don’t make him look fat. The Bears drafted Danieal Manning in ’06; Kevin Payne in ’07; Craig Steltz in ’08; Al Afalava in ’09; Major Wright in ’10 and Chris Conte in ’11.

All, with the exception of Conte, were given a shot at starting. And, assuming that newly signed Brandon Meriweather soon supplants Wright as the current first-string free safety, all were ultimately deemed unqualified.

The Falcons have taken a flier with young safeties, as well. The difference is theirs have succeeded. Thomas DeCoud, a third-round pick in ’08, started all 16 games each of the past two seasons. His instincts in coverage have improved and he’s a fast, firm open-field tackler.

His running mate, William Moore, a second-round pick in ’09, stayed healthy for the first time last season and showed genuine game-changing potential over 15 starts. Moore’s a fierce hitter who is developing in pass defense quicker than expected.

So who will win? Check out the video below. And see who our experts pick for all the Week 1 games


Read Andy's Film Room breakdown of Jets-Cowboys.

Follow @Andy_Benoit on Twitter and contact him at Andy.Benoit-at-NFLTouchdown.com.

Posted by Ryan Wilson

Agent Drew Rosenhaus has filed a formal trade request on behalf of his client, Bears linebacker Lance Briggs. This comes after the six-time Pro Bowler and nine-year veteran asked the team for a raise and was kindly rebuffed. The Chicago Tribune reports that Rosenhaus made the trade request via email. (Presumably he won't be sending out a "never mind, ignore that" follow-up.)

"The Bears made their decision, now I have to make mine," Briggs told the Tribune. "It's just how the business works. It's not going to take away from what I do on the field. I'm 100 percent a Bear, until I'm not a Bear anymore."

If this sounds familiar, well, it should. In 2007, Briggs announced that he would never play for the Bears again before he signed his one-year, $7.2 million franchise tender. A year later, the team inked him to a six-year contract. Doing the math, that means that he still has three years left on the deal he asked for three years ago.

Details on Briggs' current contract situation, via the Tribune: "He is scheduled to make $3.9 million this season (including bonuses), $4 million in 2012 and $6.5 million in 2013. He signed a six-year, $36 million deal in 2008 after first testing the free-agent market, and the maximum value of the first three years was $21.6 million."

The Tribune adds that Briggs wants to restructure his contract so that he makes more money this season, possibly by flip-flopping the $6.5 million he's set to make in '13 with the $3.9 million he'll pull down this season. Apparently, he decided to ask for more money after seeing younger linebackers like the Broncos' DJ Williams and the Jaguars' Daryl Smith cash in with new deals.

For now, head coach Lovie Smith isn't worried about Briggs or his contract.

"If a guy has something that he needs to do, then he can deal with it off the field," he said, via the Tribune. "As far as how I see him, I just see him coming to work every day, like he has done. Lance Briggs has to get ready for the football season, which he has done. "Who doesn't want a new contract?" Smith added rhetorically. "All of us would want a new contract. But still, you go to work every day and do your job, and that's what he's doing. I have no complaints about him."

In general, we support a player's right to ask for a raise because NFL contracts aren't guaranteed. But Briggs had no issue with the deal when he signed it three years ago. Just because other teams might overpay for their linebackers isn't reason enough for the Bears to do the same. Maybe that changes after the season, or perhaps Briggs will get his wish and be traded.

For now, he's 100 percent a Bear until he's not a Bear anymore. Which, given the immutable laws of physics, is typically how these things work.

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