I'm in on the Playoff Challenge. Will your diagnosis of my issue was spot on. My ESPN logon is eddied 1955.
Sorry gents. My computer crashed and I spent a few days getting it back up and running. What a royal pain in the keister that mess is.
Is it too late to join the playoff challenge? If not, somebody give me the info so I can get signed in, please.
Oh, and I owe you an avatar....Me too! I'll just wait til next season!
The Foot Predict-o-Meter - Final Report
Credit to Foot for getting one right. Spiller did indeed finish as the #7 RB, just as he predicted. Spiller's ADP was as the #36 RB, so Foot can crow a litttle about this - or rather he could if he hadn't botched so many other picks.
The final rundown, from sanest to craziest:
Meh (crazy rating of 2)
CJ2K will be the #1 RB
He was the 4th RB in ADP, so this is hardly a stretch. Dead wrong, though, coming in at 13th and 131 FF points out of the #1 spot. A terrible prediction, but close enough to mainstream thinking that we shouldn't really pillory you for it.
Off the Beaten Path (crazy rating of 3)
Cam Newton will be the #1 QB
His ADP was as the #5 QB, and very few people had him #1, so this was a little unusual. Cam came on in the second half and ended up #6, 71 points out, and worse than ADP. Putting him #1 was a bad prediction, and would have put your team in a big hole early if you followed it.
Peyton Manning will be a Top-2 QB
Wrong again - but not by much, as Peyton ended up at #4, 36 FF points out of the #2 spot. ADP had him as the #9 QB, so while Foot was off, this wasn't bad advice at all, although it wasn't a revolutionary prediction.
Huh.. Interesting (crazy rating of 4)
Shonn Greene will be a top-11 RB
A modest goal, but still wrong. Greene came in as the #15 RB, 29 FF points away from the top 11. With an ADP as the 24th RB, though, this is another case of being wrong but the advice not being too horrible - although also not too unusual.
Out There (crazy rating of 5)
Charles will be a Top-2 RB
With the injury and Hillis in the wings, people were low on Charles and his ADP was down at #14 among RBs. Foot had him crazy high at #2. He ended up right in the middle at #8, but a big 59 FF points out of the #2 spot. Foot was right in rating him above ADP, but so far off in how high he rated him that this is a bad call.
Pretty Crazy (crazy rating of 6)
Demaryius Thomas will be the #1 WR
Not that far off (he was the #5 WR, 23pts out), but still wrong. With an ADP as the 16th WR, this again isn't bad advice, but putting him #1 made it both a crazier prediction and a less accurate one.
Time to Get Your Head Examined (crazy rating of 7)
Miles Austin will be a Top-2 WR
Wrong Cowboy. Austin's ADP was #27 among WRs, and that's pretty much where he ended up (#26, and a whopping 88 FF points out of the top two). Horrible prediction.
Spiller will be a Top-7 RB
Credit where it's due: this is Foot's genius call, definitely crazy and absolutely correct. Spiller did in fact end up #7, while his ADP was a mile away at #36 among RBs. Props.
Turbin will be a Top-12 RB
To compensate, Foot was mind-numbingly wrong on this one. Turbin was unrosterable, finishing 57th among RBs and 122 FF points away from the #12 spot. His ADP as the 54th RB was on the money, and Foot was totally off.
Seriously, It's Time to Get Your Head Examined (crazy rating of 8)
Russell Wilson will be a Top-4 QB
Wilson poured it on late and climbed up to #9, but still 58 FF points out of the top 4. Worse, half his points came after Week 11 (and 30% after Week 14), when they were too late to do much good. Still, he was the 24th QB in ADP, so Foot was on to something, but as usual he aimed too high and the result was bad advice.
Lamar Miller will be a Top-10 RB
His ADP was nonexistent... and so was he, mustering a paltry 35 FF points despite being healthy all year, to end up as the 72nd RB, 164 FF points out of the top 10.
Bat-Guano Crazy (crazy rating of 9)
Flacco will be a top-3 QB
Instead, Flacco ended up where he always does, in the middle of the pack (#15 QB), with every single stat number perfectly in line with the average over his previous three years (as everyone else predicted). A terrible, team-crushing prediction.
Summing Up
By itself, the Spiller call is amazing. And the Peyton Manning and Demaryius Thomas calls would have been great if he'd been a little more modest. Taken together, though, the terrible calls balance out the better ones and result in an unimpressive set of predictions (and an unreliable predictor). He gets points for creativity, though.
