The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

I like this signing alot. Jair Jurrjens could be a steal. He's not eligible for free agency until 2015, and he's just turning 27 and in his prime. In 2009 he led the majors in games started. Consequently, he has both the young veteran tag and the possible overuse tag pinned to him. He is represented by Scott Boras no less, so maybe a relationship between he and the Orioles are developing.

Now the O's need to sign Michael Bourn and perhaps Joe Saunders too.

I think this puts Saunders out of the picture. IF everything goes right, we will have Arrieta, Matusz, Steve Johnson, Hunter, Wada, Jurrjens and neither DD or Buck have ruled out Dylan Bundy making the team out of spring training, all capable of filling the fifth rotation slot. Where does Saunders fit in? I doubt he would sign to come here and pitch out of the bullpen nor should he, he is a starting pitcher. I think Saunders is off the table at this point and I haven't read anything to suggest we are interested in Bourn though I wouldn't be against signing him, but that puts Nate McLouth in a tough spot.

From what I've read, the problem with Jurrjens is that he doesn't trust his knee. He has had knee and groin injuries and is probably afraid to injure himself again and holds back while pitching. If Brady can help him strengthen his legs, it will also make his knee stronger. It's funny that Atlanta tried to trade him and Prado to us for AJ and now, we've signed him for a cheap contract after being released by Atlanta. Glad we didn't do that deal.

I am encouraged by the Jurrjens signing.  If he can make it halfway back to his 2011 form he was worth the money.

I don't think it puts Joe Saunders out of the picture.  I do think that it generates some healthy competition in the rotation with the losers becoming long men, AAA, or trade bait.  That's the way it should be.  No one should be guaranteed a spot because they are breathing.  They need to earn the spots. 

I think it does. Joe Saunders shouldn't have to prove anything because he already has. He has established himself in the league as a starting pitcher and probably wants a guaranteed spot and rightfully so. Between all the guys that will be vying for that one, single rotation spot, one of them will get it. Saunders is a veteran who is still on top of his game. There is no reason why he should come into a situation where he has to prove something and could potentially end up in the bullpen. It's not like the guy doesn't have other teams interested who do have the flexibility to make sure he gets a rotation spot to start the season. We already have healthy competition and all the guys competing aren't owed anything, not even Jurrjens since he has fallen off and has to regain his form and the rest have to prove they deserve to be in the rotation. Saunders would take away flexibility just like Vlad did when he came here. He didn't have to earn anything because he was a proven veteran just as Saunders is. I think either he walks into a situation where he knows he will have a rotation spot or he finds a better situation.

I think Most of us would agree with the signing of Jair.....My Question is, why only a 1 year deal and not a two or 3 year?

Was it money? Did Jair not just want to sign for multi year ext.?

I just hate one year contracts for the simple fact if he gets hurt and is out for a while, its a waste...isn't he a younger pitcher too?

In a tight market Bore A$$ wants him to have the opprotunity for a breakout year and more money next year. Also the Os don't want to shell out guaranteed money for someone coming off a bad year and injury.

I like the flyer the Os took and I hope he pitches lights out, but the law of averages says different for a 30 year-old pitcher.

It's a good signing and I'm a fan. The reason why you only sign him to a one year deal is because he's still under team control. If he does well then you offer him arbitration and if he does poorly then you're only committed to one year. You still aren't eligible for unrestricted free agency until you've had six years in the league. The only reason why Jair was able to come to us via FA is because he was cut. OTM stated how long we have him under control.

Jurrjens does indeed have options remaining which means he joins the young pitchers inventory of Arrieta, Matusz and Britton. If he does well then he has a shot at the fifth spot but if he does poorly then he'll be in the minors. Honestly, I expect to see him in the minors (unless his contract states that he needs to be called up by a certain point). His signing has no impact on whether we go after Saunders. But if we do get Saunders then he'll start in the minors nearly for certain.

There was a handful of teams interested in him but he chose the O's and it was a wise decision that Im sure Boras steered him towards. Matt Wieters is one of the best catchers in the game and if he makes the club at some point and time, he could get JJ back on course as well as anybody. Rick Peterson is still with the team isn't he? His track record is pretty good at getting pitchers back on track. The AL doesnt know JJ as well as the NL does and what better way to try and re establish him and his market.

Another reason for a 1 yr contractr is he has had 2-3 knee surgeries and I think at least two shoulder injuries that have derailed his career.    He might be a youbnger pitcher, but he has the body of an old man.   

I hated that we were considering him last year, and I hate the signing now. I hope we are still in the loop with Saunders but I don't think so. If you had the choice to pitch half your games in Seattle or Baltimore to try to extend your career or even get another contract after this one, which ball park would you choose. I think he goes there and we went with the next best thing we could find, but I think he is trash and he is done. I hope I am wrong of course and only time will tell, but I don't mind going out on a limb on this one and I say that Matusz and Arietta will both have better seasons than this guy. I can only hope that we did this to help out Boras in the hopes of buttering him up for resigning Wieters or another of his clients. I really hope this is not the big FA signing I have heard was coming for about the last week or so. 

I'm not really a fan of Jurrjens either, but for this price, what do we have to lose? It's definitely a low risk/high reward signing and I'm fine with it. We didn't have to give anything up for him except money. I would also say that Matusz has a much better chance of being better this season than Jake does. Jake is the bipolar version of Luke Scott as far as streakiness goes. At least Scott could put together a couple weeks before he went cold. Jake can barely put together a couple innings. One inning, he's unhittable and the next, we're five runs down by the time the inning ends. Jake was one of the only pitchers (maybe the only one) who didn't contribute anything last season. He literally made no progress at all and probably even regressed. He is like Bergy was, a headcase.

I think DD and Buck are pretty much standing pat with what we have for a few reasons. We have a lot of players who are rising, but haven't hit their ceiling yet. AJ, Weiters and Machado come to mind. We have several guys who can hit 20 home runs and I'm going to include Markakis in that because I think he bounces back now that the O's actually have something to play for at the end of the season and I'm sure he's still ticked that he was injured down the stretch and couldn't play. AJ, Weiters, Hardy, Davis and possibly Markakis can all hit 20 with two of them being 30+ guys. I think Machado can hit 15-20 and McLouth is no stranger to 20 HR seasons. If he's healthy, he's going to be around or above 20. Then, there's Reimold. If he could ever put a full, healthy season together, I think he could be a 30+ guy, but he can't be counted on and has to prove he can stay healthy first.

Second base is still a crapshoot and personally, I am not expecting Roberts back. Matter of fact, I'd be pretty ticked if we put him in there. Look, he had a great career with us, but it's over now. The Roberts we all fell in love with that was a doubles machine, .280 BA with a solid OBP and 40-50 steals is gone forever and the sooner this organization realizes that, the better. We did sign Casilla who is a burner on the bases, but needs to remember how to hit and get on base. McLouth is another speedster and will most likely be hitting lead off with Casilla hitting ninth. If Casilla doesn't work out, we still have Flaherty who I think could stick if given regular playing time.

Then, there's the pitching. I fully expect improvements from Chen, Hammel, Gonzalez and hopefully Tillman as well. I think whoever gets that fifth spot is going to do well too. I think Steve Johnson is the dark horse to steal that spot, but whoever doesn't get it will be in the bullpen, so it's no real loss. However, there's also the possiblity that Dylan Bundy makes the team out of spring training and Kevin Gausman may not be far behind him. I think we're going to have a strong bullpen yet again this season and anything we get from Jurrjens is a bonus.

I understand why we haven't made the big splash and why we're standing pat with what we have. We have many guys on this team who are rising stars and there's every bit of reason to believe this team is going to be better in 2013. I, for one, can't wait for the season to start.

For all the reasons you state, it makes no sense NOT to have made the big signing. All those players you mentioned, and few you didn't, careers are wasting away. None of them are getting younger and most of them have had injury issues. We made toe playioffs last year so even without the miracle 1 run and extra innings record, we were much better. With that amny positions filled with guys you feel are competant, it is the eact time to fill the other ones with guys that fill in what you need and not keep waiting for someone. We badly needed an infielder, preferrably a combo 2nd/3rd baseman, but we needed one. 2b is wide open and SS is always a crap shoot. If we had a cpmb guy he could play 2b or if JJ got hurt machado could slide to SS and the other guy could play 3b. I do also believe Flaherty has a chance to win that job. That is scary and as I said now was the time, and though McLouth had a bonceback couple months I have 0 confidence in that lasting. LF was a deep position in FA and there is no reason for us not to have gotten one. McLouth and Reimold are unreliable and we can no longe afford to pull Davis and throw him into the OF.


As for pitching, Tillman and Gonzalez are huge question marks as neither had any real success before their short stint at the end of last year. I would prefer to have a guy that is solid ifnot spectacular every 5 day while waiting for Bundy or Gausman. Hamel i no sure thing either. Who knows what is going on with that knee? I like Chen alot. There again were plenty of solid 3-5 rotation starters out there. Saynders being one of them But Jurgens is not. If we don't sign anyone else, you better really pray that Gonzale and Tillman didnt just havea nice end of summer. As my boss often says. Hope is not a plan.   


Also I have heard a few people on here say it has not been decided that Bundy will not break training with the team. Technically that is correct as anything could happen in Florida, but I can tell you that if there was anything sure about it, it would be that Bundy is not coming north with the team, and likely does not even spend the entire spring training with them. He will get more innings than last spring but as the spring goes on he wil gt less work and the pitchers that are going north will get more work while he is sent to the minor league facility and on to likely Bowie, but possibly Norfolk. That is the plan and is reasonably firm from what I hear. As I said, I guess he could get there and be unhittable an dforce his way in, or enough people could get hurt, but the plan is for him to pitch in the minors until at least memorial day and longer if possible. Of course that was the plan for Machado too and we see what happened there. Just saying is all that there is already a plan for Bundy and it is not even to give him a real chance to make the team out of Sarasota. I have actually heard that though unlikely, Gausman has a better chance of making the team out of ST or early after than than Bundy. I don't know why, maybe age and experience pitching longer seasons, I don't know, but that is what I hear.

I guess it does suck if you were hoping we'd get someone better but it isn't his fault we're not getting anyone better.

Maybe we'll make a trade. There have been a lot of blockbusters this offseason. But do we have enough talent in the minors that's expendable to get anything good? Probably not.

Someone better than Jurgens? Not doing anythign woudl have been better in my opinion. It does only cost money and it's not mine. And unlike other sports it doesnt make someone else gt cut because he still has to play his way onto the team and he has plenty of minor league options, not to mantion it doesn't hurt you to just cut him if you want to. I just don't think he was any good even when his stats looked good. IT ws a mirage and now he has been injured several times on top of that. I really am not a Saunders fan for us either because he has that pitch to contact stule that all too often in Camden Yards means pitch to HR style, but he is alot better than this guy.


We did not really address any weakness on the team from last season. We are still in a position to depend on journeymen guys to contribute conistantly and that is not realistic. That's why they are journeymen. They all have talent and can all have a good game. But consistant good play is what you need. You need 8 guys that are going to be peniled in evrery day, and a couple guys that can spell them for a game or two at a time, or play for 15 days without killing you if there is an injury. We don't have that. We have positions where we go onto the season with the guy already perpetually on the DL and we did nothing good to solve it. We have no legit leadoff hitter and no legit 3-4-5 series of hitters. We have guys that can hit a little from one side or the other. Not even alot from one side, just a little. The help was out there, we just didn't do anything to get it.


We have a better group of potential than we have had in the past. But it is still unproven potential for the most part and still at least a year away in other parts. We need a player a year to come in that was at least as ready as Davis was when we got him. Not the Pearces of the world or even McLouth. I truly hope we see a story in McLouth like we got in JJ when he came over a year after spending all season trying to recover from injury, and then shpwed he was all the way back and earned a 3 year deal. I just don't see it right now. And even iof you believe that is going to happen in LF and feel you have enough to cover it if not, we simply continue to ignore 2b and there is nobody remotely ready to play there consitantly and well. For the 3rd straight year we have ignored it, and with it, becaue it was Roberts, the leadoff hitter spot.


I would give you a different example of how all the pieces fall into place when you fix just one. The Wizards were by far the worst team in the laague the first 30 games of the season. John Wall comes back from injury and they are now one of the hottest teams in the league. Is he that good to cause the turnaround. No he is not, as a matter of fact he hasn't had a really big game yet. But he played his position and his role so everyone else could go back to theirs. The guys that are better off the bench ar back coming off the bench. The guys at the other guard spot, back there. the guys that should have been at small forward, back there, etc etc. With a good leadoff hitter, everyone else in this lineup backs up one spot and the entire lineup, lines up. Markakis is a steady hitter, but he is not a leadoff hitter and even if he is, the rest of the lineup suffers because he should be hitting 2nd. 

I didn't ask for much. Didn't expect us to go out and outbid anyone for a superstar HR hitter or a Cy Young pitcher. I simply wanted us to pick one. preferably 2b or a leadoff hitter, and fill one need. Just one. That really doesn't sound like too much to ask does it? Fix one problem per off season with as sure a thing as you can instead of hoping on a medical miracle, a come back story, or a young guy to suddenly make a leap from promising AA prospect to he ML? I guess it is though. Pitching the same thing. I just wanted a guy that was a no bull, solid, bonafide, every 5th day #3-5 starting pitcher. Not an ace, a solid dependable healthy pitcher. We have for too long depended on the Hayden Penns and Jake Arrieta's of the world to leap from the minors to be a good ML pitcher. Maybe we can grow an ace in Bundy or Gausman, or maybe Chen or Wada turn into one, but going out and getting a guy capable of being a 12-12 pitcher with a 4.5 ERA or so who gives you a chance every 5 days really doesn't seem too much to ask. Ahhh             

In short we are not as good right now as we were last year. We lost several players and did not get anyone to eplace them that is theor equal. much less better. We are still depending pon guys to grow into the players we need and most of them never will. Good thing Buck got an extension because this is the year that in every other stop, he failed, and for all the exact same reasons. The other teams fired him after that failure to capitalize on an improved team with greater expectations, and then built on his base to make the changes that needed to be made, and won a world series. We gave him an extension.

Disagree. McLouth's injuries were a result of a serious collision in the outfield. I don't see how he is unreliable at all. Before the injury, he was an above average player and while he was with us, he seemed to be regaining that form. Reimold is a completely different situation and he is unreliable and is injury prone.

Tillman is less of a question mark than Gonzalez, IMO. However, Gonzalez had good stuff. He wasn't getting lucky. Here's the thing: these guys all stepped up during a pennant race and did not faulter. We probably had some nerves in the post-season, but even still, nearly took down the Yankees who go to the playoffs annually and are more than used to it. That says a lot about this bunch. Also, making that big signing would likely mean we will not be able to sign Matt Weiters to a long term deal. We already have a ton of weapons on this team and we have two 30 home runs guys, three if you count Hardy's ability to do so and another three 20+ home runs guys at least. There is really no need for a big bat and with that kind of offensive production, you can get by with a second baseman that doesn't hit much. So, if our priority is to take care of our own, that makes it hard to make a big signing. DD and Buck are getting little pieces and taking fliers, so that tells me they both think we have most of what we need in Baltimore already. When you look closely at things, I can see their point. We have plenty of candidates for rotation spots and we have plenty of power in the lineup. OBP has been the problem, but with McLouth and Casilla, we also have more speed in the lineup as well. On top of that, we have one of the best defensive outfields in baseball and our infield defense isn't bad either. Chris Davis was a good first baseman until 2012, I'm guessing because he wasn't getting regular playing time over there because of Reynolds. If DD and Buck thought we needed to make a big signing, we would have done it. Of course, there's still time, but we have to spend our money wisely.

As for Bundy, if he's ready, he's ready. Same for Machado as you mentioned. I think it depends how things develop for the fifth rotation spot. I could see Arrieta going to Norfolk (if he has options, I don't remember) or possibly someone else. If Bundy has a good spring, it might be hard to send him down. Like I said, if he's ready, he's ready. If he's not, he's not. It's still possible.

Also, making that big signing would likely mean we will not be able to sign Matt Weiters to a long term deal.

Actually one hss absolutely nothing to do with the other. Wieters is under team control for awhile, and Roberts 10M and Markakis 17M come off after this year so there is money alrrady here without even raising the budget. Not to mention there is no cap so you just have to be willing. One more promising start and the attendence will more than make up for it. Season ticklet sales are over 5k more than last year already, mostly due to people buying packages last year in order to get playoff tickets. 


I actually didnt ask for a "big signing". A solid 3-5 starter is not a big signing, nor would a good combination 2b/3b liks a Lopez or Izturiz type as an insurance policy against Roberts and Flaherty who I am not sold on. We do not have plenty of power and actually as I said have less than last year with the departure of Reynolds. You always hope the guys, especially the young ones get better, but as a group that seldom happens. As far as Bundy goes, they expect him to have  good spring, and they intend to send him down. One because his arm is not yet conditioned to throw the innings he needs to in the ML, and two to save his service time towards being a super two. My guess is he goes briefly to Bowie before heading to Norflok. If he is lighing it up there then you can start talking about him around Memorial Day. As I said before I imagine there is a scenario where he pitches his way on, but I do not think they will let injury dictate where he starts. We do have plenty of potential for the rotation, but isn't that the story of the last 15 years? Always potential and seldom performance? I simply want someone at each position in the firld and rotation that is not a flyer. A veteran even fi he is a journeyman tha doesn't hurt you in the field and does somethign well at the plate.


And lastly, I don't think need plays into Buck or DDs plans when it comes to getting players. They both think they can turn a sows ear into silk purse. DD has said often he does not intend to spend big in FA. That is why he floods the monor leagues with guys from wherever he can find them and hoped one of them comes through. We have a fw of those guys in the system not getting the print of the top 3 or 4, but that will change soon. I believe good yougn players are in our future, but not shoring up the weak positions for this year and maybe next was a mistake. When you have solid players at as many positions as we have, butno superstars, you need the other positions to be solid as well. For the most part platooning does not work because neither guy gets enough time to stay sharp. You are much better off with a regular lineup that plays just about every day with a mix of guys that can hit lefties or righties. 

I do think they have a plan, but unfortunately this plan looks like the same one that gets Buck fired everywhere he has been. If he is still his old self, we will regress this year while sticlking withthe guys that over acheived while they return to what we thought they were. He usually gets fired then and then they get someone to come in, fill those couple positions of need, and win a WS. I hope it goes that way for us. I hope Buck is around, but his MO is that he may not be, but everybody else has at least gone to a WS right after.    

I believe that the Jurrgens signing is a good one for the reasons that have already been stated, but I don't think he will make the rotation out of ST.  I see his signing much like the Nate McLouth signing last year.  He was signed for depth and if he does well, then he has a chance.  Otherwise he goes to the minors and works with Rick Peterson and maybe regains his form that made him an all-star.  I believe that is what is needed anyway.  A lot, not all, of shoulder and knee injuries for pitchers happen b/c of poor mechanics.  I don't think he neds to make major changes, but a little tweaking here and there probably couldn't hurt.  Peterson is just the guy to help him with this if Jurrgens isn't so stubborn to believe that he doesn't need to make any changes.   

Looks like Skins now understands why the rest of us were disappointed a few weeks/months ago. After Swisher went elsewhere I think most of us gave up on the idea that we were going to get someone good. But just because the Os didn't add a more useful piece or two doesn't mean that Jurrjens is useless.

Kakes is under contract until 2015 (club option) but Roberts, Wada and Hammel are free agents in 2014. That's 21 million right there although we may decide to keep Hammel. Then again, this year we lost Gregg, Lindstrom and Reynolds and we ended up spending the saved money on arbitration raises and fringe free agents. Five million for Wieters, three million for Hammel, Kakes, JJ and Davis and two and a half million for Jones really adds up.

It isn't clear who is right about contracts as we'll have a lot of holes after this year. We still need a long term answer at second base, left field, dh and possibly four guys for the rotation. That stated, if Flaherty/Schoop/Casilla can fill the hole at second, McLouth/Avery/Hoes can fill the hole at LF, Reimold/Betemit can fill the hole at DH while our young pitching (Bundy, Gausman, Matusz, Britton, Tillman, Gonzo, Johnson, Jurrjens, Arrieta, etc) can fill the holes in the rotation and bullpen then we'll have about 25 million to play with in 2014 after arbitration assuming we stay around the 90 million dollar mark. Obviously I doubt that all of this will happen but it's possible that one or two will.

This team needs more talent and didn't get it in FA. Kelly Johnson would have been a nice addition. Clearly, there wasn't interest in spending money possibly because they question the ability on this roster. Nothing to do now but hope for a trade (and we don't really have that much talent to trade) or hope guys progress. There isn't much talent in the minors but what talent there is happens to be where we're weakest. I guess it makes sense to see if any of it pans out before going shopping in 2014. Of course, there's not much to get in 2014 unless you want a pitcher.

I suspect Skins is right about Bundy. Makes sense to start the season with a rotation of Hammel, Chen, Tillman, Gonzo and one of Britton, Matusz, Jurrjens and Arrieta. Whichever one does best in Spring should get first shot. Tie goes to Britton.

I don't know if Swisher was the answer as I was on the Bourne bandwagon the whole time, but I would have been ok sticking with the outfield if we addressed something else. Just one thing. Maybe we still do but it sure looks like DD is sticking to last years plan of getting a bunch of young guys and hoping one of them turns out. So far he has been saved by several jounrneymen and Machado not sucking when being brought up, but I still say he didn't really do anything great. He was better than Betemit an Reynolds at 3b, but Reynolds saved many throwing errors from 3b when playing 1b and AMnny still has average numbers. He hit well for a kid thrown into the fire and I think he will be great, but last year was  acrap shoot instead of having someone solid to play there.

As for FA there is not much there any year. THat is why if you need someone you trade for them or you have to jump and overpay. Not just us. Everybody overpays unless they wait until now and sign guys to one year deals. There isn't much middle ground. Most of the trades seem to be salary dumps so you end up paying too much half the time anyway, but to finish their contract is generally shorter.

Our minor leage system is not in shambles, but it also is not is the condition to think many sure fire ML starters are out there waiting to be discovered. There are likely a few, but how long do you wait? In the past Buck has waited too long and been fired. We over acheived last year but it's a what have you done for me latley business and regression usually is not healthy for jobs. If you were unexpectedly successful, then you get the kudos, but you are expected to figur eout how to stay there. I don't think we have.