The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

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The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

January 29, 2013 12:43 pm

Get Bourne and let the 4th OF be the DH to rest. Betemit and Reimold is the absolute worst we could have at DH. Even worse than Reynolds!!!!
jnb5
SinceNov 7, 2006
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The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

January 29, 2013 6:53 pm

I would like to see Michael Bourn signed too. But I suspect if the Orioles sign anyone else of any significance, they'll sign LF/1B/DH Carlos Lee. His price will come down and he'll be the addition. At least he's not JUST a DH and handcuff the team like Vladimir Guerreo.

Then again, DD seems to really like Travis Ishikawa who has a great glove, a good hitting eye and gap power. He certainly would be an upgrade over Wilson Betemit as the back-up 1B, and if he hits, could push Chris Davis to a full time DH role. A role I must admit, I'd rather see him in.

I agree with Jazz (its been a while) that Jair Jurrjens begins the season in Norfolk or extended spring training in order for the pitching gurus like Peterson to get an idea of how to proceed with him. However, if he pitches lights out in Florida, he'll be in the rotation immediately. I have a good feeling about him.

My guess is that Jason Hammel, Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen and Miguel Gonzalez break camp as 80% of the starting rotation.

I also believe that not one of Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Steve Johnson and Zach Britton go north out of spring training. Buck Showalter will make them earn that right first. If I had to pick one to rise to the challenge I'd take Britton (because Johnson, who I really like, isn't talented enough to be in a ML rotation...bullpen maybe).

The last rotation spot will go to either Jurrjens if he impresses or T.J. McFarland. McFarland, unless he totally bombs in Sarasota, will make this team as the 2nd left hander out of the bullpen or the 5th man in the rotation to start the season. With Daniel Schlereth, another ML veteran lefty reliever also available, I think T.J. will get the nod as a starter until Jurrjens, Bundy, Wada, or one of the aforementioned young guns make a move. Then of course, DD could sign Joe Saunders and make it more interesting.

If no additions are made, my 2013 O's pre-season roster predictions are as follows (starting batters in bold):

CA (2): Wieters, Teagarden
IF  (7): Davis, Roberts, Casilla, Machado, Betemit, Hardy, Ishikawa
OF (4): McLouth, Jones, Markakis, Robinson
DL (1): Reimold
SP (5): Hammel, Chen, Tillman, Gonzalez, Jurrjens
RP (7): Johnson, Strop, O'Day, Ayala, Hunter, Patton, McFarland
DL (1): Wada

Of course I have the right to revise this each week until the very last week of spring training.












OnThMove
SinceAug 22, 2006
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The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

January 30, 2013 9:31 am

Just read over on MLBTradeRumors that someone (not the O's) offered Joe Saunders 2 yr/15M.  If that's the case, say goodbye.  No way the Orioles match that.  I would agree with not matching that for a #4 or #5 starter.

Still seeing plenty of holes for a team that starts heading to FLA in 2 weeks.  Who's at the back end of the rotation?  Are we still - for the 4th straight year - hoping that one of these young "prospects" finally steps in?  Yes...I am putting "prospects" in quotes because in the FOURTH year you're on the pot, either s--- or get off.  Only Tillman right now out of that group can be penciled into a rotation spot.  The length of developing time is becoming Cabrera-esque.  The bullpen is still solid but expecting a repeat 2012 performance is asking a lot to say the least....especially because I don't see any starter who's gonna push 200 innings.

Giant, flapping, gaping hole at 2B with wind whistling through it.  Not sold on LF or 1B/DH whatever Davis isn't playing.  No true leadoff guy who can get on base and run.  No middle of the order anchor who hits for power AND doesn't strike out 130-150 times/year for our good but complementary players....e.g. ideally new player 1 leads off and can run, Markakis-2, Jones-3, new cleanup hitter-4, Wieters-5, Davis-6, Machado-7...McLouth-9.

With the team's current construction as of 1/30, I am putting the following odds:
win the division - 1%
93 wins to match 2012 - 5%
90 wins - 9%
85 wins - 20%
81 wins - 45%
78 wins - 50% - this would be my guess right now
75 wins - 70%
72 wins - 90%
70 wins - 99%
I am not expecting a drop off as much as 1990 after 1989, but 29-9 in one run games and 16-2 in extra innings does not happen 2 straight years.  The reason I still have it close to .500 is Buck plus team chemistry plus development from some of the younger guys.

Like OTM I have the right to change my odds if the team's constitution changes before opening day.  Still holding out for a late offseason signing.
kpk33x
SinceJan 12, 2007
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The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

January 30, 2013 9:34 am

PS Forgot about Hardy, maybe bat him 8th or 7th instead of Manny.  Depends on who comes north with what...
kpk33x
SinceJan 12, 2007
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The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

January 30, 2013 9:36 am

Then again, DD seems to really like Travis Ishikawa who has a great glove, a good hitting eye and gap power. He certainly would be an upgrade over Wilson Betemit as the back-up 1B, and if he hits, could push Chris Davis to a full time DH role. A role I must admit, I'd rather see him in.

I am wait and see on Ishikawa.  But I agree that he could and hopefully would be an upgrade over Betemit at least because its needed.

kpk33x
SinceJan 12, 2007
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The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

January 30, 2013 10:43 am

I try to look at every angle myself and I think as time gets closer and closer to spring training the Orioles are gonna get more and more interested in Michael Bourn, that is of course if he still is without a team to play for. I keep seeing 5/75 as the asking price but I haven't read thats what Boras is looking to get for him, because if that was the case why wouldn't Atlanta have re signed him instead of signing Upton? I doubt that trading for the other Upton was contingent on signing BJ, since Justin couldn't block the trade to Atlanta. My guess is that Boras is asking for something outrageous for Bourn and nobody is biting. He is trying to convince NYM to get him and if the Yanks can void A Rods contract maybe they become players and than Boras will get the money he is commanding but other than Seattle who has a harder time signing players of notierity than the Orioles, the market is thin for Bourn and more than likely barring injury Boras is finally gonna have to cave. I think the O's maybe would go 3 years with a club option for the 4th year and player option for the 5th year for him but they wouldn't go any further than that and I doubt they would sign him for only one year.

They do have some options that can lead off, assuming Brian Roberts is healthy and can stay healthy he will more than likely be the lead off hitter. Nick Markakis looked like he was excelling as the lead off hitter so he is an option as if Nate McLouth. But adding the element that has been missing with the Orioles since what 05 or 06 when Roberts was stealing 40 or 50 bases a year could be a reason to believe that they could intensify their pursuit of Bourn if they are so inclined. He would be entrenched as the leadoff man for the length of his contract in all likelyhood, allowing potentially Roberts to slide down one spot and than have Markakis and Jones behind that.

Bourn also could give the O's a very good chance to stay healthy all year long in the outfield. By not having a primary DH on the team as of yet, there are nights where he could play CF and Jones could DH. They could move McLouth over to RF or have Nolan or Davis play there and give Nick a night at DH. I dont think they would use the DH for McLouth so he would only be playing when match ups dictate. But with the injury history of McLouth, but also Jones and Markakis of late, it may be a great insurance policy to sign somebody like Bourn in an effort to keep them all healthy. I mean if all 3 in Bourn, Jones and Markakis played 130 games in the OF while Markakis and Jones had 31 games each as a DH and you kept Reimold in the fold, maybe he actually stays healthy only playing X amount of games in the outfield and the rest as the DH. If Hardy starts regaining some of his form of 2 years ago hitting wise, maybe they give him a night off every two weeks at SS and move Machado over there just to get his feet wet, while Danny V plays at 3b.

Signing Bourn opens up a lot of avenues for this team and staying healthy is O so key. As far as the pitching staff we could still see something materialize on the trade market. Only going off last year we saw what happened when Guthrie wanted more money than they where willing to pay. Jason Hammel and Jim Johnson are both asking for more, not as much as Guthrie did but still asking for more than what the O's submitted and you dont want anybody who feels like they where burned if the arbitrator sides with the O's or if the process starts getting dragged out. Gavin Floyd is a guy that is constantly being linked to the O's and the O's have been stockpiling some left handed pitching and that may finally line up at some point and time this year. Other than Floyd I really cant think of anybody else they would be interested in trading for, I've never really bought the Porcello rumors, they may have just been doing their homework when he was being shopped.
devilraid316
SinceMar 11, 2007
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The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

January 30, 2013 11:31 am

Agreed on Bourn.  I think his addition would give the lineup a lot of flexibility. 

Some out of the box thinking/throwing darts, was wondering everyone's thoughts-
1.  Do you DH Markakis?  An OF of McLouth/Jones/Bourn would be speedy.  Reimold in LF if you wanted to add some power (and he was healthy).  Then you have Bourn leading off, Markakis 2nd and McLouth 9th.  You're sacrificing some assists in the OF but Nick's #'s were way down last year - I think he had 3.
2.  Has Hardy practiced (I know he hasn't played) any 2B?  It would be a lot of shifting but they could have Hardy at 2B and Manny at SS...problem is then they're shopping for a 3B and its not Betemit.  This one's a stretch.  Just trying to fill in the gaping, flapping hole at 2B.  Right now they have Danny Valencia as devil mentioned, but I don't think he's a full time, front line starter unless he can recover the arc he was on in 2010-2011 (2012 was a disaster....its always interesting how MIN and BOS didn't keep him what they were thinking or if they were missing something that the O's are going to get a huge bang for the buck on)

I maintain getting some arms can only help.  There was much more competition coming into the season for bullpen slots than there was in 2011 and looked how that helped.  Healthy competition is great!
kpk33x
SinceJan 12, 2007
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The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

January 30, 2013 1:46 pm

Lots of pitching potentially available next offseason. You've got Johnson, Garza, Floyd, Wainright, Halladay, Haren, Hughes, Lily and others potentially available. Definitely a few top of the rotation guys to go along with some middle of the rotation reliable arms. Doubtless the plan is to either get a veteran for cheap or give the prospects one last chance to figure it out. If three of Tillman, Gonzo, Britton, Matusz, Johnson and Arrieta do well then you can build a rotation in 2014 around them, Chen and Bundy. If none of them do well then you try and keep Hammel while adding a free agent and using that as your nucleus to build a rotation. I wouldn't be surprised if Britton figures it out. If he can find the strike zone again then he should be a #3/#4. In any event, there's a lot of competition in the rotation. You'd like it to be better but such is life. A lot of the cavalry is on its last chance to start.

Carlos Lee is exactly who this team would add. Someone who is cheap and three years over the hill. He'll most likely be awful but if you get him for cheap it's no big. I suspect a lot of teams are interested in Bourn and waiting for his price to drop.

I wouldn't expect the Os to put Kakes at DH or Hardy at 2B as both do well defensively. Given that Jones played a full 162 last year and has missed 24 games over the past three years you probably don't worry about his health. Sure, he had injuries in 2009 but that happens to players.
odawg36
SinceNov 14, 2006
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The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

January 30, 2013 2:02 pm

As we get closer to spring training, and the number of remaining impact free agents available dwindle, I think some fans are beginning to panic believing that the Orioles failed to keep up with their divisional rivals.

I understand that the Blue Jays and Red Sox have made some additions, but the Yankees and Rays have lost much more than they have gained. The O's lost Mark Reynolds. That's it. Joe Saunders was a two month rental who overacheived and in all fairness, isn't much more than a bottom of the rotation guy who certainly isn't worth $7m or more per season.

In reality, the O's may actually have gained or regained more than everyone else in the AL east. A full season of 2012 newcomers Manny Machado, Nate McLouth and Miguel Gonzalez could provide some impact play that the team lacked early in the season.

Players returning to health will also have a big impact. Brian Roberts, Jason Hammel, Nolan Reimold, Nick Markakis and Tsuyoshi Wada are capable of being everyday players. Then there's the biggest injury wildcard of all, Jair Jurrjens. He has the ability to be an ace if he overcomes his leg and knee concerns.

Players like Tommy Hunter and Brian Matusz have found successful roles. Both were unhittable and if they return to those roles in the bullpen, will make the bullpen even better this season. Especially since the pen returns in tact.

In addition, the club brought in players like Trayvon Robinson and Alexi Casilla who have a ML skill set. Robinson was a top prospect in Seattle. And if you remember correctly, the O's have had some serious success with Mariners players (see Adam Jones and Chris Tillman). Others like Travis Ishikawa, Conor Jackson, Daniel Schlereth, T.J. McFarland, Ryan Flaherty, Danny Valencia, Steve Pearce and Yaimico Navarro may have some starring roles throughout the season too.

The minor leagues will also contribute at some point. Dylan Bundy is almost a certainity to be up in the big leagues before the all-star break, and Kevin Gausman, Jonathan Schoop and Henry Urrutia (if he gets his visa issues taken care of) may also make their ML debut in 2013.

I certainly am not advocating sitting still if there is a player that will help the team be even better. Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse, IMO, are two guys I'd take now. But there is an abundance of serious young talent assembled in Baltimore. It needs to play out. If you take all of the talent and depth acquired so far, there isn't a roster spot available in Baltimore, Norfolk or Bowie. My money is on Buck and Dan making the right calls.

Just think, if Jurrjens is healthy (and I'm a believer), he along with Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy, Chris Tillman and any one of Hammel, Chen, Wada, Gonzalez, Britton, Matusz, Hunter, Arrieta, Johnson or McFarland, could form the best rotation in baseball. Sooner than later.

Add five gold glovers who can hit a little too like McLouth, Jones, Markakis, Wieters and Hardy, a young slugger who is just coming into his own in Chris Davis, and one of the best young players in the game in Manny Machado, and the roster is is not only strong, but has virtually no holes outside of 2B. And, the O's have that covered now with young players like Casilla, Flaherty and Schoop.

I know I sound like a homer, but that's because I am a homer. But, I have tempered my expectations some. I'm only predicting a 116 win season (down from 125). Ah, spring is in the air. But then again, I'm in Florida and spring is always in the air.




OnThMove
SinceAug 22, 2006
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The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

January 30, 2013 5:00 pm

I am just not  believer in depending on guys that have either never done it before a few decent months las seasaon, perpetually injured players, and someone elses castoff, though there is somethign to be said for a guy if he is young and has had ML suceess in the past. One of Conor Jackson, Robinson, or Casilla i believe will have a bounceback season to at least be a guy that doesn't kill you when he comes in, but the chancesare one of them will be forced to start for a significant perios of time, and it won't be the one that does well. last year almost every reclamation project wirked to a degree and I am not ready to say that is becaus eof our great scouting just yet.

I am not a Mclouth believer either, but I am not adamant about him because he was comiong back from a pretty bad injury and like hardy it may have just taken him longer than some to fully heal.

That said i also really like Urritia. i have heard he is having trouble getting here, but really don't know why. you would think with the high powered lawyers the owner employs that could be sped up or taken care of a little.

I do not think we are in better shape than last year, but that is mostly because I think we did some of what we did last year with smoke and mirrors in extra innings and one run games. A strong bullpen certainly gives you a leg up, but what we did was uncanny. I think we needed to narrow the gap to make up for the losses that naturally will come there through no fault of the players. it's just the averages catching up. As I said before I just would like to see us pick one position and get someone that is already good, instead of always hoping for the growth or the bounce back year.

We have been in no mans land at 2b for several years. I actually hope Roberts cannot make it back. My reason is simple. He is simply not the athlete he was, and at his size he needed to be every ounce of it. He is lighter and weaker even when he is healthy. If he is healthy enough to play, they will feel obligated to play him. Heck they are seemingly betting on it. He literaly was barely getting the ball out of the infield when he made contract last year. He is showing why regular people don't play the game. Years ago he was a professional athlete, he no longer is. Can he play 2b? Maybe some. Can he be the leadoff hitter we need. I don't think so. I don't even think he is going to be a good #9 hitter. Lets hope Casilla or Flaherty is the guy with the breakout year. I will say I have not seen Roberts personally in at least 5 months, so maybe another year of rehab has his muscle or speed back up to where it needs to be.

I hope like nobodies business that OTM is right about Jurgens. It would be one of the greatest double moves in history with us turning down trades for him last year and him being horrible, and then getting him for a song if he turned it around, but man it is a super long shot as he simply hasn't looked good or probably felt good for a long time. Who was that other guy we got a coupe years ago that everyone thought was going to come back and he spent the entire spring and season in the MRI room? it only cost us money and that is why he is forgetable. I am afraid so is Jurgens. 

redskin81hof
SinceFeb 24, 2007
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The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

January 30, 2013 6:10 pm

I do expect to see Bundy this year, but it won't surprise me if it is not as early as some think. I do think it will depend more on how he pitches than the teams needs. I don't think they will bring him up out of panic because others fail or get hurt. Gausman on the other hand I think has a better chance of being thrown into the fire. I think physically and psycologically he has a better chance of handling it especially if he fails. I have no real confidence that Arrieta is going to ever get it. I have also thought Britton always shows too much of the ball and that is going to hurt him. His delivery is too long and it gives them a good look. Of course those are coachable things so if I am right I am sure they will. i like Tillman and think he just needed a little success to believe in his stuff. i have hopes for Gonzalez but he has a lot of experience but never did anything until half of last year. I have a hard time depending on that, but I am hopeful there is a good reason for his turnaround and it keeps up. The only other questin mark is if hammel can stay healthy, and if Chen can can continue to pitche wel land for the love of pete get a little luck. I am willing to bet te bullpen blew at least twice as many wins for him as they did anybody else. We won a lot of them, but it was after he got the no decision.

I think the bullpen is solid and I hope that it stays intact. If we can manipulate the options we should be able to keep them fresh also. It is also nice to have guys like Matusz, Hunter, and Johnson, that can step in and give you 5 good innings or a couple decent starts if you need them in an emergency or injury. I don't know why, because he has nothing overpowering, but I do like Johnson. I think he is the type pitcher that Wieters can make successful because he throws what Wieters calls for and throws it where he asks for it.

Reimold is a wild card, but unlike Roberts, I think if he is healthy he can be effective for whatever amount of time he is there. If healthy he is a candidate to hit leadoff as well, but I am not counting on it. With the current people we have it is Markakis or McLouth unless Robinson, Jackson or Casilla really show something in ST. Honestly after hearing that Jackson was recovering from Valley Fever the last year or so I am intrigued. I have lived in AZ and have known people to get hat and it be like mononucleosis except they don't regain their strength for a long time, often well over a year. if that is the case, we could have something. Again i hope noone is counting on it, but it could happen and that would be very cool.


By the way as far as the division goes. Unfortunately I see it as close but I think Tampa is easily the team to beat. They just have a good overall team and with Longoria there the whole year they run away with it last year. Toronto is much improved but they also seems to have a way to find to lose enough. not sure they are ready. i see us fighting with the Yankees early, and then them falling out of it and us fighting then with Toronto for 2nd. Tampa,Toronto,Orioles,NY,Boston   
redskin81hof
SinceFeb 24, 2007
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The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

January 30, 2013 6:14 pm

Tampa  94-68
Toronto 87-75
Orioles  85-77
NY        81-81
Boston 76-86

I won't start my rah rah until i see how healthy we look once they put on the spikes
redskin81hof
SinceFeb 24, 2007
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The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

January 30, 2013 6:30 pm

By the way, though I always oped we were the surprise team in the Bourne thing, the loner it lasts it points to two teams if there is going to be a surprise. The Tigers and the Phillies. Don't they always seem to swoop in at the last second and getr somebody they need? i am also a bit surprised that the Yankees have not enterred the mix. This is one of thosesituations they liek also. Wait for the market to make itself and then overpay a few million. Our only chance is that we have several Boras clients comin up with Wieters beign the obvious and maybe somne kind of framework is laid with Bourne by either us letting him save face for making Bourne wait and give hom a nice 1 or 2 year deal in exchange for an easier Wieters deal, or vice versa. Boras stears Borne to us at a reasonabl price so we will open up negotiations earlier and bigger with Matt. I mean he should be happy with us right now as we gave MAtt this biggest settlement for a catcher in his first year ever, and it wasn't close.
redskin81hof
SinceFeb 24, 2007
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The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

January 30, 2013 6:43 pm

Who was that other guy we got a coupe years ago that everyone thought was going to come back and he spent the entire spring and season in the MRI room? it only cost us money and that is why he is forgetable.

Wasn't it Dutch something? Dutchmeuller, Dutchsmit, Dutchendorfer?
knaubcpa
SinceNov 6, 2006
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The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

January 31, 2013 2:23 am

I think you are right. i think it was Duchsherer
redskin81hof
SinceFeb 24, 2007
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The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

January 31, 2013 7:44 am

Normally, I find OTM's "homerism" to be a little over the top, but this time I agree completely with what he said and I'm not a homer. Sure, we lost Mark Reynolds, but I think most people would agree that he was more of a liability at the plate than an asset. His defense at first base was superb and one can only guess whether Chris Davis will be able to get back to that level defensively, but surely he will be back to his usual self over there now that he knows he will be the full time 1B. Davis has a career .995 fielding percentage at first base with the .989 he put up with us being the lowest and the only time he had a percentage under .990.

Anyway, certainly one can't say we don't have enough power just because we lost 20 home runs and almost 200 strikeouts without Reynolds. Maybe we'll see more contact out of our lineup now instead of an almost sure out. As a matter of fact, only whoever plays 2B and Machado have not hit 20 home runs before and Machado really doesn't count because he hasn't had a full season, but did show pretty nice power in the time he did play. Davis has hit 20+ twice, Hardy 4x, Weiters 2x, Markakis 2x, Jones 2x and McLouth 2x with Machado certainly showing that ability.

Some of you guys sound like the ones criticising us last season. This team did big things last season and many of them are still getting better.

Sesshomaru
SinceApr 7, 2007
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The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

January 31, 2013 9:11 am

Bundy is almost a certainty not to be up before the All-Star Break. If he is called to the majors then that means our rotation has suffered a disaster and our starters in the minors have done poorly. It's also possible that Schoop and Urrutia could make their MLB debut before September but that would probably mean one has outperformed expectations or we've had a lot of guys struggle. It isn't certain that Schoop will start the year in AAA and even if he does we can expect him to struggle. He's not a Machado who can go to the majors at 20 after skipping AAA. As for Urrutia... well if he's called up it means that one of Jones/Kakes/McLouth + Reimold has failed or gotten injured. It's not the end of the world if it's McLouth + Reimold who have failed but if it's Jones or Kakes then that's bad news. It's asking a lot of Urrutia to fill those shoes.

Casilla will likely start for an extended period of time. If he can together decent defense and a .700 OPS then he'll have done well. Chavez and Roberts failed as reclaimation projects. More if you count the guys who didn't make it to the bigs.

Losing Upton, Pena, Keppinger and Shields will hurt the Rays. The only above average bats they have are Longo, Zobrist and Joyce. But they've got a lot of mediocre guys and the only major hole they have is at catcher although Loney and Scott are nothing to write home about. The Rays have the pitching quality to lose Shields but dude was a workhorse. If Moore or Hellickson can't throw 200 innings then the Rays bullpen will have to make up another thirty innings or so.

Reynolds wasn't elite but he was solid. If our options are him and Betemit then we'll miss him especially against lefties.

We haven't added much. Certainly a number of guys are young and we can hope for them to get better. But our young guys haven't improved as much as we'd like over the years. If you're a .500 team it makes sense to wait but we were in the playoffs last year. You'd like them to add more guys so we can stay in the hunt.
odawg36
SinceNov 14, 2006
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The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

January 31, 2013 11:59 am

I think most of us on here will have to say that the Orioles played over their heads last year to get to 93 wins.  That was beyond pretty much anyone's preseason guess on here, with most of us saying they'd get between 77 and 85 wins and only in an extreme moment of fandom hoped for contention.  Then 93 wins and a playoff run.  Its also fair to say that the team we had in 2011 was much better than the 69 wins they produced - that team underachieved.  If both teams did what was expected we probably would have had a 76 win team in 2011 and an 81 win team last year.

2012 outdid 1989, when a solid bullpen combined with career years from several individuals, good team chemistry and tremendous luck combined for an 87 win season.  1989's team on paper was a .500 team like 2012's was. 

Jeff Ballard, Craig Worthington, Bob Milacki and Jay Tibbs all were significant parts of the team, were all young, had career years and then all were terrible after that.  Gregg Olson debuted and would go on to have several more good years, same with Pete Harnisch.  Steve Finley, Brady Anderson, and Curt Schilling were around and young but were not high impact to this team.  We got what was expected from Randy Milligan, Joe Orsulak, Cal Ripken, and Mark Williamson.  The team had some hot prospects (Ben McDonald), no noteworthy ace, and no true cleanup hitter (in fact it had just traded its HOF cleanup hitter for more hot eternal prospects who never did anything).  Sound familiar? 

Then came 1990, and back to reality in terms of luck and not everyone having career years.  And 1991.  There was still no cleanup hitter, no noteworthy ace, and prospects remained prospects.  Brady Anderson didn't start...um...."developing" until 1992.  Schilling, Harnisch, and Finley were traded.  The team tried to get a cleanup hitter in 1991 (Glenn Davis) and got the wrong one.   The case for an ace?  Mike Mussina was a young prospect, Ben McDonald was going into his 4th season still called a prospect, and the team got Rick Sutcliffe who was still good, a former ace, who really showed the other two what it meant to pitch.  But that didn't happen until 1992.  We had to suffer 1990 and 1991 first.  But starting in '92 the team was winners 6 out of the next 7 years with basically only Phil Regan's 1995 stupidity keeping it from being 7/7.  They finally started to build on 1992 and 1993, adding key veterans and free agents and leadership until they had playoff teams in 1996-97.  They had to go shopping for veterans to do it, as only Mussina and Anderson developed into stars (on the Orioles).

The 2013 team still has no true cleanup hitter to build around and we're fooling ourselves if we expect 29-9 in one run games and 16-2 in extras to repeat.  Right now no ace for these perennial prospects plus Bundy to look up to.  Guys like Gonzalez, McLouth, Davis - did we see their career years?  

Although I think the team looks better now than coming into 1990, history is doomed to repeat itself, plus the AL East is a better group.  Remember we also caught Boston in a down year and Tampa (still won 90), NYY (still won 95) and Toronto struggled with injuries to key players and will be more improved via health/free agency while we still wait for Roberts to miraculously revert to 2008-09 form.  That's why I said 78 wins.  As above I think we took a team meant to win 81 games in 2012 and lost power from it without improving it, leaving the same holes that were there last year.

Still about 2 weeks to see if something is done to address it. 
kpk33x
SinceJan 12, 2007
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The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

January 31, 2013 12:00 pm

Exactly what I meant. It's as if DD knows last year was just a pleasant aberation and we should have only been about a 500 team, so he is sticking to his plan as if we were. I see the logic in that if you still don't think we are ready to tie up th loose ende becaus there are stil too many, but we did win those games, and we did make the playoffs and I don't think its a good idea to let that fall backward. Though we won it was only one year and a slow start or mediovre first half can get a lot of our guys who are used to perpetually losing to think here we go again. I think we should have maea couple moves that at least showed we ar e actively trying to get to the next step instead of passively hjust hoping. Players careers are short and they hope their team doesn't waste them. This so far has been a passive off season. I don't think sitting at and hoping for player to improve or grow or whatever hardly ever works. Nothing is guaranteed, but when you are using words like hope, and should, and possibly to conrol your team and you have obviuos holes that ar not filled with at least an every day player. It is not really the position you want to be in. Thats all I meant.
redskin81hof
SinceFeb 24, 2007
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The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

January 31, 2013 3:07 pm

Seems Roberts thinks he's better now. I guess we'll see about that. Also, Bundy's comments are encouraging. Look, if Bundy is ready, we'll find a place for him regardless on if anyone is struggling or not. Bundy could be a special player and could be the ace we've been looking for. If a talent like that is ready now, you find a place for him now.

Just out of curiousity, does anyone else here get "Access Denied" errors when trying to post lately?

Sesshomaru
SinceApr 7, 2007