The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

I also want to give my opinion (it's just my opinion) on the FA's this year. 

Besides Hamilton and Greinke, I really didn't see many FA's that were any better than what the O's already have. 

Is BJ Upton or Michael Borne really better than Adam Jones?  And, before you say the O's could have moved one of them to LF, maybe they did not want to play LF so unless you know for a fact they would have, we have to compare apples to apples. 

Edwin Jackson is a .500 pitcher, even on a good team.  He has some positives such as he will give you 200+ innings every year and 1 out of every 5 starts he looks like a Cy Young/HOF pitcher.  Then again, 1 out of every 5 starts you wonder why he isn't pitching for some D-league independent team or maybe in Australia.  The other 3 out of 5 starts are usually pretty mediocre which is why he is a #3 or #4 starter.  On the O's he would have become a #1 or #2, much like Jeremy Guthrie was. 

Kelly Johnson?  Seriously? 

Kyle Lohse is a 34 y.o. pitcher who has only had 2-3 years od sucess.  He's not a #1.  I would put him firmly at a #3 and would give him either a 1 yr w/ an option or a 2 year contract worth less money per year.  Is that worth a 1st rd pick?  

The other SP and RP were pretty much even to what the O's already have.  I would have liked to see the O's take a fliyer on Scott Feldman though. 

The only FA I would have liked to see them sign was Nick Swisher.  Many have called him a headcase.  I think he's just a flake who marches to the beat of a different drummer.  I like those types of players, but unfortunately Buck isn't enamored with the Nick Swisher's of the world.  Plus, he's 32 y.o.  Was he really worth a 3-5 year contract?  Only time will tell.   

So the argument, or better word debate, is not IF the O's should have signed some FA's but who should they have signed?     

If we look at this year the onoy teams that really spent on FA's were the Dodgers, Angels, and the Red Sox.  The Dodgers and Angels spent on the two top FA's on the market and the Red Sox overpaid for middle of the road players Shane Victorino, Ryan Dempster, and Mike Napoli.  The Braves made a splash with BJ Upton and then traded from a position of strength (something the O's don't have yet) to further upgrade thier team.  The Rays also traded from a position of strength.  As did the Reds, Phillies, Nationals, and Mariners.  So, how did these teams have the players to trade?  They didn't give up draft picks for overpriced, mediocre FA's and improved thier scouting and development.  Hell, even the Yankees and Rangers stayed out of the bidding becasuse they want to lower payroll and they don't want to give up draft picks, although the Rangers might go after Bourn if the Nelson Cruz thing gets ugly.                    

Inquiring minds want to know.

This is why I love baseball. 

 

Amen.  And this is why we debate it so much even when there's no games for about 2 more months.

Keith Law has put out his list of the top hundred prospects. We had four of the top hundred as Schoop made it at #50 and Rodriguez was at #100.

It was funny and gratifying to see what Law had to say. He basically admitted he was higher on Schoop then most other analysts because he felt that Schoop has been aggressively promoted. He basically stated that he loves Schoop's swing, power and approach and thinks the reason he struggled was because he's young for the level. He thinks Schoop can play at 2B or 3B with above average defense but not SS.

You don't think Anibal Sanchez would have been an upgrade? Not that I think we could have afforded him, but really? You don't LaRoche would have been an upgrade? Not that I'm certain we should have offered him three years but he's probably an upgrade.

You're right Jazz. Kelly Johnson is far worse than Flaherty and Casilla. After all, in a bad year Johnson did better then either of those two guys. What were we thinking? 

Certainly, guys like Swisher (who you mentioned), Hunter, Ludwick, Gomes (who can actually hit lefties) and Hafner would be useless on a team like the Orioles. After all, we've got McLouth/Betemit/Reimold/TBA at LF/DH/Fourth Outfielder/Second Bench Infielder. No possible improvements there.

Not to mention that there were a bunch of guys traded. A guy like Chris Carter would sure be nice on this club. But I guess the As weren't going to trade him. Morales would have been a good piece to add. How about Michael Young? He had a bad year last year and could bounce back. Otherwise, he can still hit lefties and would be useful as a utility player as well as platooning with Betemit. Yunel Escobar would have been a good option at second base. How about getting someone from Seattle? They should have a guy or two available. 

Look. I get it. They only had about ten options from guys who were actually traded. That's simply too few to work with.

Hmm, Sanchez is good but as you said, he was probably too expensive for us. No, I don't think LaRoche would be an upgrade over Chris Davis at first if last season was any indication of his current direction (Davis).

Kelly Johnson? Oh, you mean that guy who has failed to carry an average above .225 in three of the last four seasons along with a crappy OBP, SLG and a ton of strikeouts? No, he's most definitely not an upgrade over Casilla and Flaherty. Both those guys individually will probably be more productive than Kelly Johnson over the course of a full season.

Swisher is too old for a long term deal and McLouth addresses the need for speed in our lineup, Swisher is slower than molasses and is not a gold glove defender. You may have a point with Ludwick though I'm not sure how he would do in the AL East. His numbers, particularly in the power department, have been inconsistent over the last four years or so. Gomes is atrocious defensively, but pretty solid with the bat in a reserve role. I don't think he's an everyday player, but he seems to have that "clutch" quality to him. I'll give you Gomes. Travis Hafner has been riddled with injuries and will be 37 this year. He still gets on base, but I'd rather see some young players fill in such a role.

I'm pretty sure I had read or heard somewhere that Michael Young isn't interested in a platoon job or a utility role, he still thinks he should be a starter, preferably at shortstop which we can't accomodate him for and Yunel Escobar is a clubhouse cancer who never sticks with any team. Plus, he is atrocious defensively and has an average bat at best.

It would have been nice to sign Gomes, but other than him, I don't really see anything appealing. Well, Sanchez too, but too pricey.

1.  Forgot about Anibal Sanchez. 
2.  Don't see LaRoche as much of an upgrade over Davis.  Maybe defensively, but certainly not at 3 yrs and loss of a draft pick.
3.  Yes.  I think Kelly Johnson sucks and is getting worse.  I would not consider him an upgrade at this point in his career.
4.  I don't see either Ludwick or Gomes an upgrade.  Maybe Ludwick as he won't hurt you in the field.  Hafner could be an upgrqade IF he's healthy.  Then again IF Reimold is healthy then he is > Ludwick or Gomes and could = Hafner.  Hunter would have been an upgrade.  Also, IF healthy then I would rather have Connor jackson over Hafner, Ludwick or Gomes as he is not a liability in the field, can play 4 positions, and can hit RHP and LHP equally well. Danny Valencia (.316/.359/.472/.831) has proven he can hit lefties just as well as Gomes or Ludwick. 
5.  All reports I read from DD and Buck were that the O's were trying to make trades.  There were no trades to be made that did not inviolve Bundy, Tillman, or Machado, or a combination of two of them.  Matusz, Arrieta, and Britton had little to no interest.  Schoop had interest but only in a package deal with either Bundy, Tillman, or Machado.  As I mentioned, the O's don't really have any positions of strength that were able to get Morales (health issues and FA next year).  Escobar is a head case.  Buck probably would have ok'd Swisher before Escobar.  Chris Carter = RH Chris Davis.  That would have been a nice DH/1B platoon though. 

I don't mind trading "prospects" for ML veterans.  If they could have worked out something with the Royals for Butler and/or Moustakas, I would have been very happy.  But, the Royals are getting into win now mode and don't want "prospects".  They got rid of thier top one for ML vets.  I said all along that I would have liked Justin Upton for the right package.  As good as he is, and can be, plus his youth and his team friendly contract, that would have been a good addition.  But, he can also be a head case and like his brother, only hustles when he wants to. 

As you said, the O's have 4 "prospects" in the top 100.  Trade away those for health issues (Morales), headcasees (Escobar, Upton) or players to be FA's next year (Morales again) and where are the O's in 2-3 years or possibly next year?  The O's are building a very solid foundation.  Here's another big IF.....IF any or all 4 of those prospects + Machado turn out to be stars then trading for experienced players or signing FA's and giving up draft picks would be very prudent.  I just don't think they are there yet.  I would like them to prove me wrong but, I just don't see it....yet           

Kelly Johnson? Oh, you mean that guy who has failed to carry an average above .225 in three of the last four seasons along with a crappy OBP, SLG and a ton of strikeouts?


I'm pretty sure that's the one he means.    

He just hasn't been the same ever since it stopped raining men. lol

You know, you guys are right about the LaRoche argument. I just didn't realize there was a change to the rule book that allows Davis to play 1B and DH at the same time. Do you know how it works though? If he gets on base the first time and then it becomes his turn to bat, do we get a ghost runner or do we have to use a pinch runner from off our bench? It's very confusing.

Presumably even the two of you agree that LaRoche is an upgrade over Betemit/Reimold?

You may want to look at Casilla's stats again. You'll note that he has only had a better OBP than Johnson in one season (2011) and he's never been close in slugging percentage. Johnson is by far the superior offensive player and has much more potential. The only offensive thing Casilla does better is steal bases. Casilla has some good speed when he gets on base. Unfortunately, that doesn't happen often. I suppose Flaherty could have a great year this year but he didn't really get to play last year despite being behind Andino. There's probably a reason for that. The smart bet is that Johnson again is superior to Casilla just like he's been for their whole careers.

Swisher is 32 right now. At the end of his contract, he'll be 35. If you think that's a long-term deal and too long to sign a player then clearly you have no interest in getting anyone real in free agency. McLouth may be able to run but Swisher can actually get on base.

Given that Young is playing third with the Phillies, it probably wouldn't be the end of the world to put him at second base. And of course, if MLB decides it's unfair that Davis play 1B and DH at the same time in the same lineup then we could always have Young play one of those two spots against lefties. 

I think the Orioles were trying to make trades. But if they were trying to trade for guys like Butler, Shields and Mouse then it makes sense that the young pitching couldn't get it done. The reason I didn't list Morse is because we know he cost a top hundred prospect plus more which we probably can't afford. However, Young went for two reliever prospects. Morales went for an innings eater. Escobar went for a B-/C+ prospect. Carter is being used as a platoon bat. None of these guys netted a top return. They didn't get a top hundred guy. To get these guys the Os would have had to trade guys like Belifiore, Glynn Davis, Hoes and Avery. At most, we'd have to trade Wright. Maybe a guy like Ohlman or Wilson.

Just because it costs a lot to get top players doesn't mean it costs a lot to get everyone. Naturally, that's because a guy like Shields would be more helpful then a guy like Young and is under control longer. But you do what you can do.

 

There were no trades to be made that did not inviolve Bundy, Tillman, or Machado, or a combination of two of them.  Matusz, Arrieta, and Britton had little to no interest. 

Thank you for bringing that up jazz.  We are holding onto Matusz, Arrieta, and Britton as if they are Palmer, McNally, and Cuellar, forever waiting for them to turn the corner as we did with Daniel Cabrera, Garrett Olson, and countless others before them.  What does it tell you when 29 other GM's all looking for pitchers aren't interested in the 3 of them?  It means that they are overvalued here.  I still question Tillman until I see him do it a full year.  Then he's in.  Even Bergesen had put up a partial year.  But at least Tillman has done that.

If the O's personnel brass didn't have the "this is our draft choice/home grown prospect" blinders on, they'd see it too.  We certainly see it on the field.  But the Orioles continue to assume that they will turn the corner "tomorrow" - tomorrow never comes - which deters them from making moves needed to improve the team and bringing in players who can do it.

Speaking of which, I saw on MLBTradeRumors that Brian Burres signed a contract in Taiwan.  LOL.

CBS feed has the O's in the interest field for a starter named Norris from Houston.  I don't know anything about him other than his stats, which weren't tremendous (does K a lot of folks).  Another potential starter in the mix can't hurt.

You know, you guys are right about the LaRoche argument. I just didn't realize there was a change to the rule book that allows Davis to play 1B and DH at the same time. Do you know how it works though? If he gets on base the first time and then it becomes his turn to bat, do we get a ghost runner or do we have to use a pinch runner from off our bench? It's very confusing.

I don't think its allowed.  If it was, Charlie Finley would've done it on the 70s A's.  We also would have had Eddie Murray bat 1800 times a year and ghost twice on the bases.

 I just didn't realize there was a change to the rule book that allows Davis to play 1B and DH at the same time.

Don't get what your saying.  I'm comparing Chris Davis 1B to Adam LaRoche 1B.  As Buck has stated that Chris Davis is the 1B going into ST, I am comparing apples to apples.  If someone else emerges as the regular/everyday 1B, say Travis Ishikawa, Wilson Betemit, Steve Pearce, or Russ Canzler, then this debate will need to be revisited.  IF Connor Jackson can return to his pre-desert fever form, then I would say Jackson and Laroche would be just about equal w/ LaRoche having more power.

I will agree that what offensive numbers Kelly Johnson did 5-10 years ago would be a  lot better that anyuthing that Casilla has ever done.  Flaherty showed some signs of offensive prowess last year, but never really got a chance to get into a groove.  maybe it was b/c he was worse than Andino.  maybe it was b/c Buck likes playing veterans over "unknowns".  Maybe it was b/c the moon was in the 7th house and Jupiter was alligned with Mars.  Who the hell knows.  None of us were in the dugout.  Johnson's defense is also nothing to write home about.  He would like having the 3B Mark Reynolds at 2B but without the 25-30 HR's and 80+ RBI.      

I said I like Swisher and really wanted the O's to sign him. 

Mike Young would have been a nice addition at 2B.  But, his skills are definately eroding.  He can still hit, but his defense is probably worse than Johnson's.    

I agreed that Carter would have given the O's a nice platoon situation at 1B. 

The O's were looking to "improve" the team through trades.  Would Young been an improvement?  Probably...at least offensively.  But guys like Young and Carter were not on the O's radar.  They wanted to make the big splash with Butler, Moustakas, Upton, etc....  These are the players that DD saw that would improve the team, not just for 1 year (Young, Johnson, Morales), but are young enough and have team friendly contracts to be around for a while.  I guess it comes down to, do you want a one year fix or a long-term plan?  DD seems to want the long-term plan.  I agree with him.             

The Padres just signed Micah Owings as a 1B.  I would have taken a flyer on him also.  He has a career .283 BA with a .507 SLG %.  I know he wanted to be a pitcher in the worst way (and he was a pitcher, in the worst way) but I said when he was on the D-backs they shoule have either made him an OF or 1B. 

CBS feed has the O's in the interest field for a starter named Norris from Houston.


His biggest issue has always bee his control.  Gives up a lot of BB's.  He reminds me a bit of Jason Hammel.  He's not an ace by any means but would be a very competant #3 behind hammel and Chen.  If Peterson and/or Adair get to work with him, he could be a nice piece for the O's.  Plus, he's controllable for the next few years. 

Minute Maid Field is a hitter's park that gives up a lot of HR's.  Not so much as Coors or the bandboxes in Philly or Cincy, but it gives up it's fair share.     

Small amount of news here, but the Orioles are converting Mychal Givens into a pitcher.

Givens was drafted in the second round of the draft the O's took Machado in. He was struggling as a batter and so the O's are going to try him at pitcher, which he was also scouted out at is in high school. Apparently he can hit 97 MPH, so this move could definately help the O's and we might be seeing a future set up man down the line if this works out. 

the Orioles are converting Mychal Givens into a pitcher.

It's about time.  Love his speed but if he can't get on base, what good is it?     

The Padres just signed Micah Owings as a 1B.

Nationals. 

And the hits just keep on coming from that 2009 class don't they? If Givens could have stayed healthy he had a chance. Aftet getting the contract he did they are going to try him everywhere before giving up on him. This was pretty much announced last August but it does seem like a long shot since the reasn his season ended last year was an elbow problem.

I understand you're comparing Davis to LaRoche. The problem is that we need a DH also. Presumably, one of Davis and LaRoche could have been at DH and would be an upgrade over Betemit. The reason why Davis has been given the 1B role is because we got no one better in the offseason.

Kelly Johnson had excellent numbers and a career year in 2010. He was decent in 2011. The question is whether he can bounce back from a bad 2012 and it's very plausible that he might. He's 30 and signed a one year deal at 2.5 million. Slightly more than Casilla but not by much. There's a reason Flaherty isn't going to make the team but Casilla will.

You did say you wanted Carter and Swisher. Sess disagreed.

I understand Young's skills are eroding. I undertand the Os wanted guys who could help the team for multiple years. But clearly we couldn't afford to get a guy like that. If you have to trade a few B-/C+ guys who probably won't amount to very much in order to strengthen your team for a year then if you think you can make it to the playoffs you do it.

Shame about Givens.

Kelly Johnson is certainly a significant upgrade over the current options - Scarecrow Roberts, Flaherty, and Casilla.  If it didn't cost much to get him it would have been a good move.

Michael Young is more expensive but a significant offensive upgrade over anyone else whose name had come up this offseason for second base.  He would be a defensive downgrade but all in all a net positive for the team.  When the expensive contract comes into play it becomes questionable.

I see a wide gaping hole at 2B in our 2013 future.  We'll be lucky to get .240 with 8 HR out of the position.  Its like having Cesar "I may as well be the pitcher" Izturis in the lineup again.  Or it may as well be Andino.

Chris Davis is the starting first baseman because.... he's a first baseman. Why would we get someone better? He just hit .270 with 33 home runs and drove in 85 RBI in a breakout year for him. I understand the DH argument. I guess the thinking is we have several candidates for the position, probably a platoon situation. We're not going to spend money we don't have to spend.

Kelly Johnson was "decent" in 2011? You call a .222/.304/.413 decent? That's pathetic and so were his '09 and '12 years too. If you're going to be that terrible at the plate, 20 home runs isn't enough. There's no reason to pay money for that kind of production especially when he offers little else in the form of defense and speed. He's exactly like Mark Reynolds only without the 30+ home run potential and solid defense (at first anyway.) Waste of money.

I don't know, it's not that I think Swisher sucks or anything, I just don't think he'd be a good fit. I'm not really sure why exactly, it's weird. I wouldn't have been upset if we did sign him and I didn't comment on Carter because we didn't have a chance to get him, did we? .. and I don't know much about him.