Predicting the 2013 Roster

Alright, I know it is really early, but I have to take a look at opening day roster options. So that said, here are my thoughts:

Lineup

• C Derek Norris
• 1B Brandon Moss
• 2B Jemile Weeks or Scott Sizemore or Grant Green
• 3B Josh Donaldson
• SS Stephen Drew or Grant Green
• LF Yoenis Cespedes
• CF Coco Crisp
• RF Josh Reddick
• DH Seth Smith

Bench

• 1B Chris Carter
• UTIL Grant Green
• INF Scott Sizemore
• OF Chris Young

Starting Rotation

1. Brandon McCarthy (good chance he is re-signed)
2. Brett Anderson
3. Jarrod Parker
4. Tommy Milone
5. A.J. Griffin
6. Bartolo Colon (comes in after suspension)

Bullpen

• CL Grant Balfour
• SU Ryan Cook
• SU Sean Doolittle
• MR Jerry Blevins
• MR Jordan Norberto
• MR Evan Scribner or Andrew Carignan or (less likely) Pat Neshek
• LR Travis Blackley

That pretty much sums it up as that makes 25 roster spots (not counting the 6th starter).

I listed Moss as the "starter" at first because he bats against righties (majority of the games) and I fully expect the platoon to continue there. If it keeps working then who in their right mind would complain about the potential for 60+ home runs from the first base position regardless of how they are acquired? Biggest questions in the area of position players right now surround the two middle infield positions and Chris Young in the OF. Sizemore has to prove he is healthy and can perform at the same level he did in 2011. Weeks has to show us which year was the real him. Green will probably get a shot to show whether or not he is ready for the majors, and if he doesn't win a starting spot then he can play enough positions that he may still be able to get consistent at bats. I'm obviously hoping we somehow manage to re-sign Stephen Drew as I do like his potential at short. I really have no idea what the goal was with the Chris Young trade. He has been in the majors for 6+ years now and I'm not convinced that he is better than any of our current starters in the outfield. If Weeks doesn't make the team then Crisp has to start as we need a leadoff hitter. Young just doesn't quite feel good enough to crack the starting lineup, but feels too good to be a 4th outfielder.

I really do think the Athletics brass want to bring McCarthy back, but I'm not sure what happens if they do and everyone opens the season healthy. Those are 6 starting pitchers who have proven they are way too good for the minors, and Dan Strailey is almost at that same level as well. Of course that assumes full health in the starting rotation, and when was the last time that happened for us? I have a hard time seeing the A's trading any of that starting pitching depth as history has truly proven that "you can never have too much starting pitching". So if that happens then I have to imagine that Griffin opens the season in AAA and is the first one up when a starting pitcher gets injured.

I struggled a little with the bullpen as well because we had so many guys used last year. The back end, long relief, and first two middle relievers are probably set at this point. Each of them was heavily used and had very good success last season. I think Scribner has the edge over Carignan at this point as he is healthy and has had a lot better success in the majors than Carignan.

Predicted order of the starting lineup:

1. S-CF Coco Crisp
2. R-2B Scott Sizemore
3. L-RF Josh Reddick
4. R-LF Yoenis Cespedes
5. L-1B Brandon Moss
6. R-3B Josh Donaldson
7. L-DH Seth Smith
8. R-C Derek Norris
9. R-SS Grant Green

I can almost guarantee that won't be spot on (who would have predicted Sizemore's injury on the first day of spring training last year) but that is how I see it right now.

Is there any way we can dump Derek Norris?

I think your predicted roster will be very close. That being said i see two spots that i think you will be wrong

SS- I dont think Drew is going to get re-signed and i do not believe Grant Green is good enough defensively to hold it down.
I have no idea who its going to be but i beloeve this is one spot where Bean is going to work his magic and come up with something.

RP- Pat Neshek signed a 1 year 1 million dollar deal to stay in Oakland for the 2013 season and he was lights out since joining the A's last year. He will be one of the 7 arms in are bullpen for sure.

That pretty much sums it up as that makes 25 roster spots (not counting the 6th starter).

No backup catcher? I don't think George Kottaras would be too happy with your predictions. 

Biggest questions in the area of position players right now surround the two middle infield positions and Chris Young in the OF.

I don't think Chris Young is a questionmark. He'll basically platoon with Smith against lefties and then spell Coco every now and then. As for middle infield, I think Weeks and Green will have to start at AAA this season. Meanwhile, I like the acquisition of Parrino from San Diego and think he is a good bet to remain as our backup infielder. He plays solid defense and I think he has more potential than Adam Rosales.

I still think the A's will get either Drew or Escobar as their starting shortstop next year.

I really do think the Athletics brass want to bring McCarthy back

I do too, but I doubt it happens. The market for starting pitching is weak and McCarthy is one of the best pitchers on the market.

I struggled a little with the bullpen as well because we had so many guys used last year. 

Yeah. It will be difficult to predict. I think Neshek comes back, and then the team also traded for Chris Resop as well. It will probably come down to what players have the best spring training cause I'm don't think many of them (aside from Scribner) have options left.

No backup catcher? I don't think George Kottaras would be too happy with your predictions.

Uh... Er... That was a test! That's right, I just wanted to see who would be the first one to catch that bit.

Haha, whoops! I did mean to include him. Not sure how I missed that.

I don't think Chris Young is a questionmark. He'll basically platoon with Smith against lefties and then spell Coco every now and then.

Wow, nice call. I had no idea Young had such crazy career splits! Isn't he a bit expensive to be Johnny Gomes' replacement though?

As for middle infield, I think Weeks and Green will have to start at AAA this season. Meanwhile, I like the acquisition of Parrino from San Diego and think he is a good bet to remain as our backup infielder. He plays solid defense and I think he has more potential than Adam Rosales.

So you would predict something along the lines of:
Lineup

• C Derek Norris
• 1B Brandon Moss
• 2B Scott Sizemore
• 3B Josh Donaldson
• SS Stephen Drew or Yunel Escobar
• LF Yoenis Cespedes
• CF Coco Crisp
• RF Josh Reddick
• DH Seth Smith

Bench

• 1B Chris Carter
• UTIL Andy Parrino
• C George Kottaras
• OF Chris Young

Right?

Certainly sounds reasonable to me. Eric Sogard and Adam Rosales have soured me on any middle infielders who have never really "made it" in the majors so I am not a fan of Parrino's at this point. He'll have to win me over I guess.

Isn't he a bit expensive to be Johnny Gomes' replacement though?

Not when you account for injuries. Putting things in perspective, Coco and Cespedes combined to miss 75 games.

So you would predict something along the lines of:

Pretty much.

 Eric Sogard and Adam Rosales have soured me on any middle infielders who have never really "made it" in the majors so I am not a fan of Parrino's at this point. He'll have to win me over I guess.

Scott Sizemore was like this until he broke through in 2012. I will say Parrino can't be any worse than either Sogard or Rosales.

I will say Parrino can't be any worse than either Sogard or Rosales.

True.

Some players (Bobby Kielty, Adam Rosales, Eric Sogard?, etc.) you can just see it in their awkward swing and tell they won't be successful. I can't really say I've watched any film on Parrino, but I'd certainly take him over the guys I know have horrid swings.

I still think the A's will get either Drew or Escobar as their starting shortstop next year.

Well escobar is gone now. Just got traded to the Rays. Sounds like we might have a legitimate shot at Drew as i dont think Boras is getting the long term offers he wanted. Also looks like talks with Hiroyuki Nakajima are heating up. Not really sure what to think about him as most position players coming over from Japan dont fair so well.

I'm going to be a bit different because I see some interesting scenarios for next year.  Right now, I'm going with the A's resigning Stephen Drew.  If that doesn't happen, replace him at Shortstop with the guy Billy Beane will trade for as I don't see a viable free agent beyond Drew to fill that spot, and I'm not sold that Grant Green can play the position even though that's what he was drafted as.

I see an interesting and welcomed scenario happening next season in that the A's have too many good young players and not enough positions to play them at, so the team might have a very interesting infield in that a lot of guys get playing time, but there will be a lot of interchangeable parts, kind of like the current outfield/DH scenaro.  Because between Scott Sizemore, Jemile Weeks, Grant Green, and Josh Donaldson, where do you play everybody?

I'm also going to go out on a limb and suggest that the A's resign Brandon Inge just to add a veteran well-like presence to the team and to add to the depth.  So beyond trades as the season goes on, here's what I see as the main roster for 2012

C Josh Donaldson
1B Brandon Moss / Chris Carter platoon
2B Jemile Weeks
SS Stephen Drew (or another acquired SS)
3B Brandon Inge
LF Yoenis Cespedes
CF Coco Crisp
RF Josh Riddick
DH Seth Smith / Chris Young platoon

C battle between Derek Norris and George Kotaris (w/ maybe Anthony Recker being a factor)
UTIL Scott Sizemore

Starting Rotation:
Brett Anderson
Jarrod Parker
Tommy Milone
A.J. Griffin
Travis Blackley (until Bartolo Colon returns)

Bullpen:
Grant Balfour
Ryan Cook
Sean Doolittle
Jerry Blevins
Pat Neshek
Chris Resop
final spot is a battle between Jordan Norberto and Evan Scribner and/or any other guy who gets hot in Spring Training.

The rotation could be sent into a euphoric flux if Brandon McCarthy is re-signed or if Beane grabs another free agent.  This leaves Dan Straily as the top replacement in AAA and Blackley moves into the bullpen once Colon can play.  Since the pitchers tend to be a banged up bunch, let's assume that as the season progresses, most of these pitchers will move in and out of spots.

As far as Catcher goes, if Derek Norris can't improve beyond being a .200 hitter despite his timely RBIs and doesn't improve defensively behind the plate, especially throwing out runners, why not put the team's best hitting option at that position?  They don't really need Josh Donaldson to play 3B anymore, especially if they brought back Brandon Inge or if Scott Sizemore comes out of Spring Training on fire.

If they get Inge back, Scott Sizemore then becomes the guy who spells Inge and Weeks and maybe even Drew (can he play shortstop though?) or 2B becomes a nice competition between Weeks, Sizemore and Green in Spring Training.  Again, all good problems to have.

Even without re-signing guys like McCarthy, Inge, and Drew, the team is pretty deep going into 2013, and I think we all know that Billy Beane isn't done yet.  He likes to have a splashy move, and so far is Cliff Pennington for Chris Young it...because it wasn't overly splashy?

Love the plan with the outfielders this year, especially with how hobbled Cespedes and Crisp got at certain points last year and also how Reddick seemed to run out of gas by mid-September.  If platooned right, everyone has nice energy all year long and certain guys prone to injury stay off the DL.

My bold prediction is that Grant Green plays somewhere by mid-season whether its spelling someone out with injury or because he's tearing up AAA and he needs to be in the big leagues.  And it would be nice if Dan Straily creates a similar problem when it comes to pitching, especially if someone in the rotation goes down or if someone has a sub-par year.

And they still have Adam Rosales, Eric Sogard, Colin Cowgill, Michael Taylor and newly acquired Andy Parrino to fill out any reserve situations. Notice that I didn't add Daric Barton to that list (for the life of me, I can't understand why they keep a roster spot open for him).

Can't wait for Spring Training! 

Looks like McCarthy is off the table. Just signed with the Diamondbacks and just as I expected, for WAY too much money. I liked McCarthy and all, but for a guy who is constantly injured, I think we are better to pass and focus on Drew.

1) Anthony Recker is long gone. He is currently with the Mets.

2) Daric Barton isn't likely to be considered for starting time, but he certainly has showed better potential than a guy like Adam Rosales. I believe Barton was resigned because he is cheap, classy, can play good defense, and has flashed decent potential in the past for a full season (2010 is roughly equivalent to the type of performance we got out of Scott Hatteberg in his best years). His only problem the last 2 years has been mental, confidence related. In a nutshell he makes a decent stopgap depth option as we currently have no other options at first base if the Chris Carter / Brandon Moss platoon falters.

3) As much as I liked Brandon Inge and his toughness, good attitude and timely hitting, I would be incredibly surprised to see him return next season in any capacity with the Athletics. I actually think I remember reading a direct quote from Beane stating that they do not have any plans to pursue a contract with him.

A lot has happened in the last month. All arbitration eligible players have been signed and the team looks pretty set. Time for an updated lineup.

Starting Lineup

• C: Platoon of John Jaso and Derek Norris
• 1B: Platoon of Chris Carter and Brandon Moss
• 2B: Spring Training battle between Scott Sizemore and Jemile Weeks
• 3B: Josh Donaldson (if he falters and both Weeks and Sizemore look good then Sizemore gets it)
• SS: Hiroyuki Nakajima
• LF: Yoenis Cespedes
• CF: Coco Crisp
• RF: Josh Reddick
• DH: Seth Smith (mix in some Carter, Moss, Cespedes, and Young for good measure)

Bench (Lefty Platoon players listed on bench)

• OF: Chris Young
• UTIL: Adam Rosales (or possibly Scott Sizemore)
• C: Derek Norris
• 1B: Chris Carter

Rotation

• Brett Anderson
• Jarrod Parker
• Tommy Milone
• A.J. Griffin
• Bartolo Colon

Bullpen

• CL: Grant Balfour
• SU: Ryan Cook
• SU: Sean Doolittle
• MR: Jerry Blevins
• MR: Jordan Norberto or Chris Resop
• MR: Evan Scribner
• LR: Travis Blackley

I think you have the position players and starting pitching correct. I believe the Bullpen will look like this though.

Grant Balfour
Ryan Cook
Sean Doolittle
Jerry Blevins
Pat Neshek
Chris Resop
Travis Blackley

Jordan Norberto, Evan Scribner and Pedro Figueroa will all see time with the A's this year but all 3 still have options left. While Neshek, Resop and Blackley do not. For that reason i believe those 3 will start the season on the major league roster. Additionally Neshek, Rosep and Blackley all having Major league contracts paying them 1mil plus. So there going to be giving a shot before the others with options

Starting Lineup

• C: Platoon of John Jaso and Derek Norris
• 1B: Brandon Moss
• 2B: Spring Training battle between Scott Sizemore and Jemile Weeks
• 3B: Josh Donaldson (if he falters and both Weeks and Sizemore look good then Sizemore gets it)
• SS: Hiroyuki Nakajima
• LF: Yoenis Cespedes
• CF: Coco Crisp
• RF: Josh Reddick
• DH: Seth Smith (mix in some Cespedes, Young, Moss for good measure)

Bench (Lefty Platoon players listed on bench)

• OF: Chris Young
• UTIL: Jed Lowrie (or possibly Scott Sizemore)
• C: Derek Norris
• 1B: Daric Barton

Rotation

• Brett Anderson
• Jarrod Parker
• Tommy Milone
• A.J. Griffin
• Bartolo Colon

Bullpen

• CL: Grant Balfour
• SU: Ryan Cook
• SU: Sean Doolittle
• MR: Jerry Blevins
• MR: Pat Neshek
• MR: Chris Resop
• LR: Travis Blackley

Bench (Lefty Platoon players listed on bench)

• OF: Chris Young
• UTIL: Jed Lowrie (or possibly Scott Sizemore)
• C: Derek Norris
• 1B: Daric Barton

Daric...Effing....Barton. 

I love how this quote came from the A's beat writer before knowing of the trade:

"The A's can't keep three first basemen on their roster, and though Barton is the strongest defender of the bunch, his offensive skills are utterly overmatched."


Awesome. 

Good read.

Ill go on record right now and say Barton will not make the opening day roster unless there is an Injury to Moss, Sizemore or Lowrie. Ill gladly eat some crow if im wrong lol.