Not Any Time Soon

Yogi, Ike's actually projected to be demanding and making bigger money sooner than that. Doesn't seem like the type who's gonna give any discount/organization friendly extension either although the Mets will try to get that this year. If that effort fails then he has a good chance of being dealt within the next few years. Don't forget the money the Mets already have commited to Wright backloaded plus the fact that Harvey is a Boras client... then think about all the other young players that will be getting pay raises down the road in a few years, I just don't see Ike still here in 2016, 2017 unless he can turn into a consistent .300 hitter with 30+ HRs a yr type player these next 3 years that we can't let go.

Well I think the idea that they're going to permanently be a small-market team is kind of a stretch.  This is a period here where they're cutting back but if the organization wants to be a money-maker they'll have to eventually have more than one high-priced player.  If the home-grown guys like Ike, Harvey and Wheeler are successful I find it hard to believe they'll suddenly be the east coast A's and keep trading for prospects.

I'm not doubting you at all ATW, but why do you think Ike isn't the type to go the hometown discount/extension route? 

Well I think the idea that they're going to permanently be a small-market team is kind of a stretch...thomasam

This is a very telling comment right here by thomas...

We will know this answer for sure after this season when the base payroll drops to about $50 million...$20 million for Wright and $30 million for every body else...

If the Mets don't dive into the free agent market next year and trade a few prospects for proven stars with Major League contracts, I guess thomas will have his answer...

We will know this answer for sure after this season when the base payroll drops to about $50 million



The Mets are not going to become a 50 million dollar payroll team.  I'm assuming that at some point the Wilpons would like to start making money off the Mets and the only way to do that is to win games.  If the Mets would like more than 75 games in the near future, they'll have to start spending money on players at some point.....hopefully when they're actually ready to be contenders.   

Sal...I agree with you...they have to spend money eventually...but when will they make their move?

If they do have a $50 million base at the end of this season, you would hope they try to buy out Davis's arbitration years with a 5 year deal for about $45 million so that will add on a few bucks...

Take into consideration that D'Arnaud and Wheeler become what they have advertised to be...that gives you a nucleus of...

Wright, Davis, Murphy, Wheeler, Niese, Gee, Harvey, Tejada  D'Arnaud, Parnell...
ADD ON MAYBE...Mejia, Nieuwenhuis, Duda, Familia, Edgin, and Carson...

Is next year the time to bring the payroll back up to $90 million?
Or will there be more excuses and stalling?

I would think the best case scenario for this year would be to hover around .500, stay somewhat in contention for the 2nd wild card and prove to Sandy that this team is actually in the neighborhood of being a playoff team and that spending some of that Santana/Bay money coming off the books in 2014 could be the stimulus for a playoff birth in 2014.

I think the idea of this team being down with KC, Oakland, Pittsburgh and the like for more than the next year or so is kind of ridiculous.  If Ike, Harvey, Wheeler and whoever else performs, this team will go back above $100MM like they should be in order to pay them.

When Sandy Alderson was hired(10/10) the Mets were a team that had experienced two years of injury and a number of players, injury or otherwise, that had not fullfilled expectations.  The team payroll was 143 M and with just minor adjustments that was the team that the Mets intended to take into 2011.  2/11  The involvement of the Wilpons, Saul Katz and Sterling Enterprise in the Madoff clawback changes the landscape.  Prior to that season Perez and Castillo are dropped.  During and through 2011 Francisco Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes along with lesser players were traded or had contracts expire.  The five players mentioned represented 61 M, 50 M of which was not rolled over into salary.  There were no major contracts expiring after 2012 but;  Perfrey, Dickey, Hairston,  the extended payout of Jason Bays final year and the salary reduction that David Wright signed for as part of his extention gives the Mets 32 M from the 2012 93 M payroll to work with.  Niese, Murphy, Parnell, and Davis salary increases represent 8.7 M, Marcum, Atchison, Cowgill, Andrew Brown and the diff. between Thole and Buck' s salaries is another 9.5 M.  Allow another 3 M for increases to the remaining roster nor under contract or arbitration eligible.  

If the Mets go into ST as currently constituted The Mets from the end of the 2011 season to the start of 2013 will have reduced salary by 109 M.  This is money dedicated to clear the 162 M clawback debt due in 2015. At the end of this season the 25 M that is marked for Johan Santana will be freed up for 2014, most of this could be earmarked to pay off Bays contract (12M) and the Santana buyout (5.5 M) with 7.5 left.  We will also have Buck, Francisco, and Marcum expiring contracts valued at 16 M. 

Again based on the current roster by the end of this season the Mets will have a committed salary of 27.5M between Wright and Jonathon Niese.  Murphy, Turner, Parnell, Davis and Gee another 21 M through arbitration and the remainng roster 2.5 M.  Satisfing the remaining 53 M to reach the 162 M clawback would leave the Mets front office 39 M to replace the backup C, a closer, a SP and upgrade the roster for 2014.  This would be the first step in rebuilding other than from within.  It also reduces my prior 2018 prediction by possibly one, maybe two years. 




          

Why can't Flores play third? You read a bad scouting report. Flores actually fields what is hit in his vicinity well as he has good hands. Flores has a strong accurate arm. Flores lacks foot speed and with his injuries has lost a step if that is possible. Flores best position probably will be third then first and he would be a liability at short, second and in the outfield but could be used there in emergency situations.

A team in need of a third baseman capable of hitting 285 20+ 90+ who doesn't strikeout a lot would do well in dealing for him. The Mets couldn't afford defensively to put him and Duda in the outfield corners unless they are signing a young Willie Mays. Remember Flores is still just 21 and most prospects aren't making their debuts until 23-26 years old. He seems older because he was signed at 16 and pushed too hard but his power has  started to come so he could really take off soon and net the Mets a needed piece (outfielder, closer) with a strong year.

Alderson/Wilpons are not going to pay Ike $15+ mil a year unless he can prove these next couple years that he can hit at least .280/25 HRs each year. I'm telling you guys right now. If he does manage to get his BA up and stay healthy these next few years then it becomes a different story.

Ike has too many holes in his swing to be more than a 268 type of hitter with 30+ homeruns 90+ rbi. He will always scuffle against lefties and have a difficult time with the back door slider. His long swing with natural uppercut to it also lends itself to high strikeout rates.

265 30 90 are fine especially when combined with his defense. He seems very comparable to Adam LaRoche as a player.

 Flores actually fields what is hit in his vicinity well as he has good hands


I've heard this about Flores.  "He gets whats hit to him".  One problem, not every ball is going to be hit directly at you and there aren't any scouts who believe he has the range for 3rd or 2nd.  They even doubt he has the range for the outfield, so that leaves First Base where he's obviously blocked here.


Hey, I hope they get as much as they can for him because I dont see where he has a future with the Mets.   

 
 

ke has too many holes in his swing to be more than a 268 type of hitter with 30+ homeruns 90+ rbi. He will always scuffle against lefties and have a difficult time with the back door slider. His long swing with natural uppercut to it also lends itself to high strikeout rates.

265 30 90 are fine especially when combined with his defense. He seems very comparable to Adam LaRoche as a player. - cj

Maybe if he can draw plenty of walks and keep his OBP up then the Mets will let the .260 average slide. 

I would think the best case scenario for this year would be to hover around .500, stay somewhat in contention for the 2nd wild card and prove to Sandy that this team is actually in the neighborhood of being a playoff team and that spending some of that Santana/Bay money coming off the books in 2014 could be the stimulus for a playoff birth in 2014...Sal

That would be a wonderful thing Sal...Hey...that is exactly where they were last year with basically the same team and $50 million reduction in payroll from the year before...

Why the hell didn't they add something last year to make a run?

MrB,  you can also look at 2011.  3 games over through 89 games (7/9) and 1 game over on 8/10 (115).  This was without Johan Santana and only 36 games from Ike Davis.  Alderson didn't add at the trading deadline, he subtracted Beltran and K-Rod.  He then cut payroll by 50 M, which incidently is the largest salary drop ever. 

HEY DOG OH I MEAN YOG   WHY OPENING OF THE WALLET IN 16 AND NOT 14. THAT GREAT CENTER FIELDER IN PITTSBURGH WILL BE AVAILABLE I HOPE AND CANO TOO.

Alderson/Wilpons are not going to pay Ike $15+ mil a year unless he can prove these next couple years that he can hit at least .280/25 HRs each year.

Why would anyone pay him $15MM+ if he can't hit at least .280-25?  Of course it's all relative and .250-40 or .280-25 might be worth about the same amount but either way if he's hitting .250-20 he's not getting $15MM per year anyhow.  The question becomes more would they pay $8MM per year for a 1B that is a very average power hitter.

If I am Sandy Alderson...I make a significant pick up this year at the deadline....just like Hernandez in 1983...bring in a legit player via trade...give up some prospects after you watch them for half a season...and save money by only paying half the contract this year...

After the season I go after two players...Cano and Ellsbury...add in a few filler players for depth like David Murphy, Joe Smith, and Gerald Laird...

NOW YOU COMPETE FOR REAL IN 2014....

MrB, Cano is getting a 100 mill contract and if Ellsbury stays healthy and plays up to his 5 tool ability he will also join the 100 mill club. I don't see Alderson and the Wilpons having 3 100 mill contracts and the team would be too lefty hitting in that scenario also. I agree both those players are offensive and gold glove defensive upgrades at their respective positions.

 WHY OPENING OF THE WALLET IN 16 AND NOT 14.-same


Declining attendance and the 162 M owed to the Madoff clawback fund owed in the spring of 2015.  From the beginning of 2011 through the end of the 2013 season 9 players inherited by Alderson by been traded, released, or allowed to walk.  The sum of these contracts 114 M.  during the same period the Mets payroll has fallen from 143M to 93 M to ?.  The 114 M has not been reinvested in the product on the field.  Until Sterling Enterprises has the funds to satisfy the agreement with Irving Picard, the spending will be minimal and uninspired.  
I don't know what the recourse would be if the Wilpons and Katz don't have the money due, but I wouldn't exclude loss of a portion of the team.  Rightfully, ownership's priority is to pay Picard not sign big/long term contracts.  When A happens..B will follow.