The Urlacher Conundrum

There is definitely a critical facing Emery and Trestman right now.

On one hand, you have an aging MLB who happens to be a free agent. On the other, you have a defensive HOF'er who is the face of the team and the leader of the Defense.

While he was in pro-bowl form just 1 season ago, he looked old, slow and beaten for most of 2012. Emery and Trestman have ZERO allegiance to Urlacher and really have no personal impetus to make a decision on him from any other perspective other than winning / the team and money.

As important, Mel Tucker generally coaches a 2-gap D - whether he plays a 4-3 or a 3-4. If he keeps this style, this is a gap D that Urlacher has never played. In other words, his expertise on the field is somewhat diminished.

Lastly, Urlacher was a major supporter of Lovie and Marinelli. The Defense (even Peppers, Briggs and Tillman) did what Urlacher instructed on the field. There is an old rule that is taught by Harvard Business School in the MBA program that says: "The day you're hired as a boss, fire someone to make an impact and show you're the boss - the rest will fall in line."

However....

There is no doubt about Urlachers ability to keep this teams defense running in top 5 form. With Urlacher on the field, since 2000, the Bears have an overall ranking of #3 in scoring D, and #6 in yardage, #1 in turnovers, and #1 in defensive TD's. Those are some amazing stats. Without him on the field, the D falls to #23 in scoring and #21 in yards. (I compiled these numbers myself... Not fun) We also just don't win without Urlacher.

Over the years Urlacher has only missed games in 3 seasons:

- In 2004, we were 0-7 without Urlacher
- In 2009, we were 7-8 without Urlacher
- Last year we were 2-2 without Urlacher

Lovies record (when you remove the games Urlacher missed) becomes 72 W and 46 L

(BTW: Lovies record when you remove games that either Cutler or Urlacher missed: 70-40)


The hamstring injury came at probably the worst point in the season. After losing Urlacher, the Bears lost to the Vikings - a game I feel we have a much better chance of winning if he's in and healthy. We also lost by one score to the Packers here at home - (in a game where the refs decided to bone Alshon Jeffery for an NFL record for offensive PI's in one qtr.).


It's likely that Urlacher not only comes back healthy next season. But more than likely, he comes back and is "better" than he was for the 2012 season. That's just how knee injuries usually work. It takes about a year...


He's already put some major pressure on the team by telling them that not only does he know his salary will come down from years past, but that he would also take less than what other teams would give just to stay in Chicago. He also has several vets speaking out about wanting him back. Lastly, he's a huge seller in jerseys sales for the team. Not like it was in the mid 2000's, but he's still one of the highest sellers on the team. A fairwell tour would reap millions for the Bears.


Fans will be OK. You will have many who are pissed. And many who feel strongly that he should have retired as a Bear. But they'll all get over it - especially if the D produces.


So if your Emery and Trestman, what do you do?


What you don't do (IMO) is not talk to him. You make the guy happy NOW by opening the discussion channels - even if you don't come to an agreement on terms later. I also think you pay the guy $3-4 million (which I think he will think is fair) while drafting his replacement. Maybe Urlacher makes it through the whole season again. Maybe he hands over the torch and coaches up his replacement.


As I said before, this team follows their leader. I feel if Urlacher shows he has bought into this new coaching staff, the rest of the D (including vets) will as well. $4 million is a no-brainer amount to pay for a top 5 D...

As I said before, this team follows their leader. I feel if Urlacher shows he has bought into this new coaching staff, the rest of the D (including vets) will as well. $4 million is a no-brainer amount to pay for a top 5 D...

I 100% for bringing him back.  No need to rehash the reasons, as you did a great job of covering that.  I think he needs to get resigned and then him and Mel Tucker need to sit down and discuss the defense like Cutler and Trestman will be discussing the offense.  I think getting him to buy in would transition the defense from Lovie to Mel or Trestman.  With Lovie and Marinelli gone, Urlacher is really all that is left of the leadership on this team and he is the most important player.

There is a huge risk of not re-signing him as well.  You have to replace a legend and a guy that has been the face of our defense for years.  If he goes to another team and performs well and the guy who replaces him is average, Emery and Trestman will catch heat for letting him go.  We have so much to do on the offensive side to improve that letting Mel Tucker and Urlacher take care of the defense seems like a no-brainer from a HC standpoint.

If you look at the Pro's and Con's the Pro's far outweigh the Con's to keeping him.  I just don't see how Emery doesn't make this happen unless Urlacher makes unreasonable money demands which by the sounds of the interviews, he is not going to.  He will not get a lot on the open market, Ray Lewis tried a few years back and he couldn't get what he wanted.  From all accounts, Urlacher sounds ready to come back and lets hope Emery can get it done.

There is no doubt about Urlachers ability to keep this teams defense running in top 5 form. With Urlacher on the field, since 2000, the Bears have an overall ranking of #3 in scoring D, and #6 in yardage, #1 in turnovers, and #1 in defensive TD's. Those are some amazing stats. Without him on the field, the D falls to #23 in scoring and #21 in yards. (I compiled these numbers myself... Not fun) We also just don't win without Urlacher.

Over the years Urlacher has only missed games in 3 seasons:

- In 2004, we were 0-7 without Urlacher
- In 2009, we were 7-8 without Urlacher
- Last year we were 2-2 without Urlacher

That paints a picture right there that Urlacher needs to be brought back for a season or two.  The Bears do not have is replacement on the roster and even if they get someone in FA or the draft you are still missing that important leadership.  I would like nothing more than for Urlacher to come back this season and dominate like he use to before last season and the knee injury.  I think with an offseason to train and be able to practice is going to make all the difference.  Yes Urlacher is getting older, but there is no one out there that can lead and keep this defence top 5 next year. 

What you don't do (IMO) is not talk to him. You make the guy happy NOW by opening the discussion channels - even if you don't come to an agreement on terms later. I also think you pay the guy $3-4 million (which I think he will think is fair) while drafting his replacement. Maybe Urlacher makes it through the whole season again. Maybe he hands over the torch and coaches up his replacement

The last thing you want to do is piss the guy off.  We do not need another Krutez debacle.  Urlacher is all for giving a home team discount and if I were Emery I would be talking to Urlacher's Agent and gauge what he is looking for and then be able to hammer out a contract.   

A fairwell tour would reap millions for the Bears

Urlacher needs to retire a Bear.  He has given so much to the organization and the Fans.  he deserves to be treated the way he has treated us all. 

Aggie and i were talking about this on another thread. The most important thing here imo is, would the Bears D be better with or without Urlacher? If he goes, who replaces him?

Even allowing for a probable new system, there's no doubt to me the Bears D is better with Urlacher out there. One day that'll change but we're not there....yet. SM's win/loss stats show that up. And i bet there's plenty more out there too.

As for "who"? There is basically nothing in FA worth talking about. Any talent in the FA LB market this year is at 3-4 LB's, mostly OLB's. Not good enough. That leaves the draft. Without Urlacher the Bears would have no choice but to take a MLB high, quite possibly 1st round. Putting aside the issue of team needs, it would mean the Bears taking a completely untested rook, plugging him into the heart of the D and hoping he plays at a high level right off the bat. Thats a big risk, especially given the very known comodity you have in Urlacher.

What you don't do (IMO) is not talk to him. You make the guy happy NOW by opening the discussion channels - even if you don't come to an agreement on terms later.

Absolutely! This has to begin now. I want this resolved before FA starts and there's still plenty of time to do it. If the Bears are proactive. Well Emery and Trestman have both spoken recently about the need to move forward with purpose and a sense of urgency, so lets see it. Based on what i think i know about Emery so far, i believe this gets sorted one way or another before FA.

I also think you pay the guy $3-4 million (which I think he will think is fair) while drafting his replacement.

This is right where i am too. But would Urlacher accpet say $3mil? That would be less than a third of last years wage, thats a huge paycut. I'm still not convinced a deal gets done, i have a feeling there may be more distance between both parties numbers than Urlacher thinks. But if they can get him to agree, a 1year $4mil deal is the smart move here.

If you look at the Pro's and Con's the Pro's far outweigh the Con's to keeping him.  I just don't see how Emery doesn't make this happen unless Urlacher makes unreasonable money demands which by the sounds of the interviews, he is not going to.  He will not get a lot on the open market, Ray Lewis tried a few years back and he couldn't get what he wanted.  From all accounts, Urlacher sounds ready to come back and lets hope Emery can get it done.

Exactly.

 

Aggie and i were talking about this on another thread. The most important thing here imo is, would the Bears D be better with or without Urlacher?

The real question is his health. From what I have heard, his hammy is 100% and his knee is better than where it was to start 2012.  You never know for sure, but that to me would indicate he would likely be a step better to start 2013 - even though a year older.

This is right where i am too. But would Urlacher accpet say $3mil?

3 might be a bit low. 4 might be a bit high. Pretty sure he would take something in that range... I even heard one report saying (speculating) he would take 3-4 million from another team. Which would indicate that he may even take less from the Bears.

2 year deal with 4 million guaranteed, and playing bonuese worth a couple mil in 2014 (I think) would be an instant signature.

Given Urlacher's comments about a hometown discount, the man deserves to retire a Bear.  Mongo's stats are great, but the question as many have said is simple.

1) Is his replacement on the Roster?  I think Roach has shown that, no, he is not a suitable substitute.
2) Could his replacement be gotten this offseason and step in THIS year?  Unlikely.  It'd be much better if there was someone suitable on the roster already, but that's not the case.  Too many needs on offense to take a high pick, unfortunately, due to the YEARS of ineptitude of Angelo.

In my mind, even if he DOES have an injury risk or dropoff, an injured/80% Urlacher is still better than the rest.  I am 100% for resigning.

And who knows?  Raw Lewis is going out on (at least) a Super Bowl appearance.  I'd love to see Urlacher get the same chance in the next year or two.  Make it happen Emery / Trestman.  The parallel there is funny too, as the Ravens finally got the offense clicking for a return trip to the Super Bowl.  Again, love to see the same thing in Chicago, though I want that win, regardless of whether the Ravens win, heh.

Go Bears!

So if your Emery and Trestman, what do you do?

What I would do?  I'd sit him down and lay it out like this.  Look, we want you; youre a big leader of the D, and the lockerroom.  Guys listen to you.  We want you to be on our side as we move forward with our plan to win the superbowl.  You are going to have to take a pay cut; not massive, but definitely noticable; somewhere in the 4-5 mil category.  You're stil the face; and we need it on the D.  I'm willing to give you a one year contract worth 4 million, 2 years 8 million.  Thats modest, and as we work on opening more cap space (easily done); you arent breaking the bank or a bad contract to have.  If your demands are higher than 4 we are open to negotiations; but we are not paying you 9.5 mil again. If you are seeking that we are going to be moving on. 

Emery isnt stupid, hes going to talk to him.  Sooner the better of course to us as fans.....helps a whole lot of things.

 

   

got to give credit to ESPN insider for this

On Tuesday, we touched on some linebackers the [Chicago Bears] [may consider adding to their roster] this offseason, regardless of whether [Brian Urlacher] ends up playing with the team in 2013. But what about Urlacher? Will he return to play next season? Will it be with the Bears? While speaking on the [Waddle & Silvy Show] on ESPN 1000 Tuesday, Urlacher confirmed his intention to play in 2013 and that he would be willing to give a hometown discount to the Bears.

"When you look at my age and everything, it's going to be hard to not give them a discount. I'm not going to make what I was making in the past, how about that? Does that make sense? That's fair," he said.

He granted that he has yet to talk to new coach Marc Trestman, but it appears his plan is to suit up as usual in a Bears uniform. Urlacher's base salary was $7.5 million in 2012, a number that clearly would have to drop if he is going to rejoin the team.

It's a rareity to see a player one the same team his entire career and be it with the Bears and their tradition of LB's, if Urlacher's "discount" helps develop the next LB like a Alec Ogletree or yes I still like the crazy Manti Te'o idea, it wouldn't be bad.  One thing is that Brian knows the value and reality of it and hopefully that translates to him re-signing.  My only fear is a crazy team in Free Agency paying him crazy money out of the blue.

There is no question that Urlacher is not the long term solution.  But it is a great opportunity to bring in a young prospect, maybe a little more compact and can play a 2 gap defense and be a run plugger.  

Also getting tutilige from Urlacher on how to play sideline to sideline and stay on the field for 3 downs will be invaluable.  I don't know what a "hometown discount" looks like on paper but im thinking 2 years for 5.5m or somewhere close to that.  

I just whant to see him go out in navy and orange.    

I gotta agree with all the points made, he has to come back.

As someone that has seen the game for quite some time Mongo, do you think Urlacher has a coahing career after his playing days are over? 

Sure we should resign Urlacher to an extension if possible, he's a team legend.

But we should also definitely draft a MLB in 1st or 2nd round (this is one of the best inside LB drafts in last 5-10 years, talent-wise), as a backup plan if Urlacher is washed up and can't play on a high level anymore (stash him at SLB position until Urlacher retires).

Forgeting about the football aspect.  From strictly a PR stand point signing Urlacher sooner rather than later is a slam dunk.  Right now allot of Bears fans are nervous we might have seen Urlacher play his last game.  Add to that the change in coaches and staff.  Getting Urlacher tied up now would would make Emery look like a hero and boost moral for the team and its fans.  I admit Ive been glued to the media outlets fo any sign a deal might be reached.

3 might be a bit low. 4 might be a bit high. Pretty sure he would take something in that range... I even heard one report saying (speculating) he would take 3-4 million from another team. Which would indicate that he may even take less from the Bears.

2 year deal with 4 million guaranteed, and playing bonuese worth a couple mil in 2014 (I think) would be an instant signature.

    
That would be a great deal for the Bears. A two year contract to bridge the gap at MLB. If Urlacher can get over his leg problems, I think we will see a better year out of him in 2013. At worst ( if healthy ), he is replaced at MLB and becomes the best 2 down SLB the Bears have had in years. That could even be a good thing, because that would probably mean the Bears hit on a MLB in the draft.





I think some of this depends on Melton's contract though... How much will Urlacher's pay cut offset Melton's pay raise? The closer the better... Can the Bears renegotiate a few contracts ( Peppers ) to get all the way there? If they can, that would be great!

Defensive free agents: 

Urlacher
Melton
Roach
Idonije
Moore
Okoye
Collins RFA
Hayden 
Bowman 

Not a long list with alot of big name players on it. Most of these guys salaries will change very little ( up or down ) if they are resigned. The exceptions are Urlacher and Melton.  

If the Bears can get Urlacher and Melton under contract before free agency begins, most of the focus and resources ( $/picks ) can be spent on the offensive side of the ball in free agency and the draft. 

Depending on which of the other 7 free agents are resigned, there should only be minor free agent moves on the defensive side with an early to mid round LB and maybe a mid to late round CB. If the Bears don't/can't resign Idonije, Okoye, or Collins... DL could surface as a need in FA and/or the draft. Collins ( RFA ) is a good bet to return.    
 
        

If the Bears don't/can't resign Idonije, Okoye, or Collins... DL could surface as a need in FA and/or the draft. Collins ( RFA ) is a good bet to return.

With how much Peppers moves inside to DT, DE could be the better aquisition. It would be a minor/mid level free agent signing or mid to late round draft pick if that need were to surface though. 

I have enjoyed seeing Urlacher in his prime and contribute to the Bears.  However I think its time for him to move on, and I expect the Bears to let him go.  With an aging defense, I think this team is on the verge of a fundamental shift that most Bears fans aren't used to.  This team under Trestmen with be more offense focus, and the defensive will need to be just good enough.  I'd rather see a solid young player at LB get a chance to play.  Or maybe the better option is move Briggs to the middle and bring in a young LB if they think they don't already have ne on the team.

Or maybe the better option is move Briggs to the middle and bring in a young LB if they think they don't already have ne on the team.

Briggs is an OLB. He has always been an OLB. He has repeatedly said he won't play inside. Over the years, when Urlacher was injured, the notion (mostly by fans) for him to move over and play MLB was brought up over and over. And over and over, he said no.

Briggs at Mike is not an option.

It never was, it never will be. 

Moving Briggs over is weakening 2 spots instead of 1.

As important, Mel Tucker generally coaches a 2-gap D

Mongo, in your opinion can McClellen or Wooten handle the responsibilities of DE in a 2 gap scheme, or will we have to move Idonije back to DE?

Bring the guy back! How often do you hear a player say to the media he will give a discount? He's basically saying make me a semi resaonable offer, and I'm in.