LAOJoe's Bracketology (02/02/13)

Joe L had Virginia as his 1st team out ???????????  I know he has to know RPI 95 does not cut it.  0-3 vs CAA and the CAA is not good at all this year and losing to 2-19 ODU (which means ODU has only 1 other win all year!)

Glad to see GA-Tech beat Virginia just now that should help put this to bed.

So 122 teams will be part of bracket busters and there are 11 televised games. That means that more or less the 22 best teams of the pool will be facing eachother in true bracket buster games.
I did a quick skim of the pool and here are 23 teams I pulled out that likely will be nationally televised. 22 of them will need to be picked by ESPN...plus perhaps others in the pool.

Valparaiso
Akron
Ohio
Western Michigan
Creighton
Wichita State
Indiana State
Northern Iowa
Evansville
Illinois State
Belmont
Murray State
Davidson
Eastern Kentucky
Stephen F. Austin
Northwestern State
Oral Roberts
North Dakota State
South Dakota State
Utah State
Denver
St. Mary's
Montana

Don't forget certain teams are home and away so without checking if like 14 or 15 of those teams above are all at home or all away then a few of these are going to have to be left out.

Also there are only 9 true TV games (ESPN, ESP2, ESPNU) there are 4 other games on ESPN3

The games I really want to see.

Wichita State vs Stephen F. Austin
Creighton vs St. Mary's
Indiana State vs Belmont

or a simialr combination.

The games I really want to see.

Wichita State vs Stephen F. Austin
Creighton vs St. Mary's
Indiana State vs Belmont

or a simialr combination.

Indiana State can't play Belmont both are slated to be home teams.

I want to see Creighton at Belmont.

I like the Stephen F Austin at Wichita State match up except the RPI might keep that from happening as they are RPI 80.

Akron is RPI 53 and need a quailty opponet they have won 13 in a row so maybe Akron sneaks in as a dark horse to land the Creighton game.

Creighton at Akron I like that one.  Akron is better than people realize.

Scratch that Creighton already played and beat Akron they are not playing again.

Wow Illinois about to lose again and fall to 2-7 in conference.  Too bad Ohio State had to play them while they were still hot, not sure how Ohio State lost to this team by 20+ points.

How did this team beat Gonzaga on the road ?

Even without taking today's loss into account, my biggest complaint with the bracket is Illinois as a 7 seed.  That implies they are the 25th to 28th best team, yet as of last monday's polls they did not receive a single vote.  I have them at #47, and had them at #43 at the beginning of the week.  Memphis at a 12 is low for me, but knowing their schedule I can't argue with the school of thought of punishing them.  Oklahoma at 8 seems high to me, but I have to admit that's a team I haven't seen any games of this year, so maybe I'm too low on them.  Despite that, all in all I really like the bracket.

Polls and Brackets are different monsters. They are hanging their hat on beating Gonzaga, Butler and Ohio State. However their RPI is now 48. They were 37 entering today. They are 2-7 in conference. They may have only one bad loss and one so-so one in Northwestern but now I would call them officially in trouble. 3 big wins and a solid RPI would keep them in the top half. But now the rpi is declining and the losses are steadily piling up. They are officially in danger and they will pay for it in the next ranking coming out after tomorrow. FYI they were #26 in the s-curve.

Oklahoma pretty much hangs their hat on two decent wins, their rpi, sos and 5 losses to tourney teams, plus a bad one. They should see a drop in the next bracket now. They were the top 8 seed but the loss plus progress of other teams hurts.

And Memphis is at 12 because despite having only 3 losses, good losses and a decent rpi of 41(38 now), they have no wins vs the top 80. You can't really make an arguement for them to go ahead of anyone that makes it as an at-large or Middle Tennessee. They are my last 12 seed and are lucky that Bucknell lost to Lehigh recently or they would be a 12.

*or they would be a 13.

How did this team beat gonzaga on the road?

And Butler by 17 on a neutral court.

#1. The B1G is tough and they figured out Illinois' game plan of drive kick for the 3

#2. They are not mentally tough. They quit on Webber last year.

That being said, if Paul, Richardson, and Abrams all get hot at the same time it's a perfect storm. I'm not real comfortable with I.U. going in there Thursday. I.U. should definitely win but it ain't no give me game.

Joe,

Nice job with the bracket.

A couple of questions for you- What changes at the bubble in your bracket with losses by bubble teams yesterday?   Are Temple and Indiana State now out with their losses yesterday? 

With Indiana's win do they move into a #1 seed? I moved them into a #1 in my bracket (which can be found here: [http://lobofan2003.webs.com/apps/do
cuments/])


Apologies if you've already answered these questions.     

Hey lobo. great job. I didn't look at the bubble teams much yet. As mentioned earlier I have my 11 seedset it seems but those 4 play-in teams on the 12 line are tough to figure out. Lots of losers in my last 6 teams in: Arizona State, UMass, Temple and Indiana State. Kentucky and Iowa State moved to the 11 line but those 4 teams along with a bunch of bubble teams will be tough. Lot's of losers this week from the outside looking in. My first 3 out lost. Charlotte was the 4th team and won. Then lots of close bubble teams lost while further ones won. Crazy stuff. I'll give it until after Monday's games to really look into it.

As for the 1 seeds it is tough. Kansas may still be the #1 overall seed but it is close. Followed by Duke and Indiana.

The last #1 seed is tough. It seems like Arizona to me right now. Florida, Michigan and even Miami and New Mexico aren't far behind.

My last 4 would likely be UMass, Temple, Charlotte and Boise State. If I put USM as the conference champ then Memphis would be in here instead. You would have an A-10 play-in game. Impossible to avoid. Teams like Indiana State, Arizona State, Wyoming, Air Force, Maryland, Rutgers, Saint Mary's, Villanova and Alabama are right there, just not impressively for the most part.