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REMEMBER - A MAXIMUM OF 4 LOCKS PER WEEK!

AND A MAXIMUM OF ONE LOCK PER DAY!

LOCK THREAD CONCEPT -

This thread has been created for all of us to share our expertise with everyone else to benefit the group.

THIS IS NOT A PICKING CONTEST!

PLEASE make special note of this!!! If you have an area of expertise - Pac-10, NBA, Soccer, MLB, Big East, NHL, etc. - please make some LOCK choices from your area of expertise when you have a game you are confident enough in to call it a "LOCK". The difference between a PICK and a LOCK is that a PICK is a game you like, a LOCK is a game that you KNOW. We are here to help each other win. If you are claiming your choice is a LOCK, and you really have NO true knowledge of that game, then you are just cheating us and posting your PICK just for attention and to see your name on the board.

RULES FOR POSTING -

We take it upon ourselves to donate our time and track everybody's LOCK every day, as long as you agree to do your part by doing a few simple things. We will not track your LOCKs if you do not follow these rules. You are welcome to still post your PICK or card, but unless you do the things below, we won't be putting your LOCK on the spreadsheet.

- Post only 1 LOCK per day. You may post a MAXIMUM of 4 LOCKS per week. A week starts on Monday, and ends on Sunday. Choose NCAA, NBA, NFL, or NHL. You do not have to stay in one sport. Spread them around if you like.

- No "buying" points for LOCKS.

- We want the LOCKS posted early enough so we can all benefit . If the LOCK is not posted within 30 minutes of the scheduled CBS start time the LOCK will not count.

- No other "line-manipulations: like teasers, etc

- 1st Q, 1st half or mini lines are OK. No second half or quarter lines. Time constraints make second half lines too tough to track.

- No parlays. Period.

- Props are OK as long as you give a site where we can check the line.

- Hockey, baseball, and soccer plays need to be -129 or better. No HUGE favorites for LOCKS. Anything -130 and over, take the -1.5 goals or runs if you feel like it is still a LOCK.

- Do not try to cheat on lines. We, as a group, are all over the lines and every time someone gives a stinky spread, it is always called out. If the line is off, the LOCK doesn't go into the spreadsheet.

- LOCKs MUST be posted 30 minutes before the time CBS says the game is set to go off, anything less than 30 minutes the LOCK will not count.

And, THE MOST IMPORTANT RULE!

You must give an original explanation as to why you KNOW this LOCK will win. And don't just "stat" us to death. Tell us about the game. And if you are going to try and fool us by cutting and pasting from another website, at least figure out how to remove all the HTML and other garbage. People on this thread are all over the internet and will find your plagiarism. I guarantee it. You can use Last 10, ATS, etc., numbers to support your argument, but stats from a gambling website are not an explanation. They are stats that any of us can get anywhere on the internet. Also, how about if you have actually SEEN the team play that you pick. I'd say that if you haven't seen a team play at least a few times, you can't really be an expert on the said team.

FOLLOW THESE RULES AND YOUR LOCK WILL GET TRACKED

Thank you for your understanding and your help in keeping this thread for the benefit of everybody, not just a place for you to blather out random picks and toot your own horn.

Good luck today and let's work together to win some cash!

Going to take my first LOCK swing for this season here and just got it tonight and want to get it posted in case the line moves against me:

LOCK - Oregon State (-6) over Utah

I have been waiting a while to find the right time to pounce on an Oregon State line, and this looks like a good time.  The Beavers are a much better team than their record indicates.  They have had several close losses and should have won at least a couple more league games.  They are a balanced team and have inside and outside depth.  Coach Robinson rotates defenses from matchup-zone, to full-court trap, to man-to-man, and I expect this kind of attacking style to take advantage of Utah's plodders.  Utah has had some very solid showings lately, but OSU is the better team, by a lot in my opinion.  I think Oregon State goes on the attack here at home and takes out some serious frustrations on the Utes in an attempt to get out of the Pac-12 basement eventually.  Oregon State is at least a .500 Pac-12 team and I think they will make a run in the second half of season play to get near .500.  They probably have the 3 best players in this game, and with their long, athletic frontcourt, I think they will get a lot of second chance buckets and with The Load, aka Joe Burton, weaving his inside magic, I just don't see how Utah keeps this close enough to cover 6 points.  Kind of the perfect storm here with Utah getting some recent upsets and Oregon State taking some tough losses, but these teams have double-digit separation in talent, and I think Oregon State has some frustrations to get out and it will be at the Utes expense.  Oregon State rolls by 15+.

Wow, as SW mentioned late last night, super harsh cover by the Nuggets.  It was a tie game with like 2 min left and they win by 8.  Not to mention the part where they were down by 10-15 much of the game?!  Nuggets have a bizarre knack of covering late...as in the last 2 minutes late.  Let's don't forget Gallinari's circus shot on a 3 pt. play late to increase the spread to 7.

No excuses ever though!  I just feel like that was the exact right play.  The over covered again so I guess the recipe is still 8-4.  Not amazing but not dreadful.

I'm definitely tailing Holmey on the play above.  Keep it positive boys...this thread is about to turn into a cash cow, I can feel it!

Sorry for the non-double winner

Gentlemen,

   I have, what I feel here, a very strong LOCK tonight with the Bonnies.  Tonight they travel to Indianapolis to face the Bulldogs of Butler.  Currently, the line is SBU (+11).  I don't see the line staying this high throughout the course of the day.  Just like I thought the Bonnies/Duquesne line was a gift from our friends in Vegas, I believe this is once again a great position to make some money.  This time though, we're turning it around and going with the Bonnies getting the points.  As I have told you all season, the Bonnies play to their competition.  I expect a tit for tat, back and forth game here from behind the arc...exactly how I prognosticated the Duquesne game.  The Bonnies are shooting 45% from 3-point land in their last 5 games.  Butler is shooting 40% from behind the arc in their last 5 games. 

   I have studied this game for the last two nights, and when capping, (I had it at 7.5) I found something that I think lends itself to a larger bet on the Bonnies than normal.  The Bonnies have played their last 6 games, 4 at home and 2 on the road, within 10 points.  Their last two away games they played at Temple, (where they got 10.5 points and won by 3) and at St. Joe's, (where they got 8 points and won by 9).  My point is, Vegas was 13.5 points off with the Temple game and 17 points off with the St. Joe's game.  These were the Bonnies last two away games, games that they were supposed to lose.  So why were they so far off?  Ouside shooting.  Simply put, the Bonnies are hitting the three-ball with a consistency that is allowing them to stay in games, and win them outright.  It allowed them to get back into the St. Louis game after sleep-walking the first 10 minutes of the game and going down 17 points at one point.  It allowed them to almost cover the spread against Duquesne, because they kept firing, even after the game had been decided.  It got them within 2 points against a VCU team that Sports Illustrated is crowning as one of the best defensive teams in the country. 

   I'm not saying that Butler is in any way a pushover.  And believe me, I have accounted for the Hinkle magic, and the fact that Rhode Island gave the Bulldogs a terrible scare on Saturday, but I firmly believe that the Bonnies keep this one close.  It's my belief that the number is in the double-digits because Vegas is giving Brad Stevens the benefit of the doubt that he will have his kids ready and they will know how to keep the Bonnies at bay from the outside.  My defense would be that the Bonnies are playing well right now.  They are distributing the ball and they have three viable options from the outside that can bury the 3's.

   I will be going 7 units on the Bonnies tonight getting the points.

   LOCK : St. Bonaventure (+11)

Good luck,

Reg

Good morning! Today I'm going with OVER 211 in the OKC/GS game! Not going to play a college game today, I'm 8-2 on my last 10 plays. So fade or tail, your choice! Good Luck,Rock

Lock Nevada +3.5 first half Disappointing opening season for Nevada in the Mtn West. They just don't have the depth or front court to win games. However they seem to play well for a half before these bigger, deeper teams wear them down. This could be a spot Nevada pulls off an upset at home, but Im not going to count on that. I do expect Nevada to hang in for at least a half as usual. 7 conference games in: @Air Force-up 3 at half and lost by13 Wyoming-up 3 at half and lost by 11 @ Fresno-up 1 at half and won by 7 SD ST-down 1 at half and lost by 21 Boise ST-down 1 at half and won by 14 @UNLV-down 7 at half and lost by 12 @New Mexico- down 2 at half and lost by 13 Other than the UNLV game, Nevada has played excellent first halves vs the top teams. I expect a similar script tonight, Nevada up a bucket or so at the half and then just not having enough down low in 2nd half to keep pace..

Alabama -3 @ Auburn.
'Bama is just a much better team. Rivalry gm and Auburn hasn't played at home much lately, and played well last time out in a 2-pt loss to Ole Miss, not to mention "Bama has won past 5 in series. So Aub will be fired up to play. Still, I like Tide to roll.
1-1 yesterday (Bradley-Gtech). 11-9 on posted plays in 2013.

1-5 NBA yesterday

Mavs -4 hook
Mavs TT over 103 my Blazers are operating with no margin for error right now with Batum not healthy and not really a scoring option, a thin bench which is putting a lot of pressure on Lillard who may be hitting the rookie wall, we had 28 turnovers and just slipped by TWolves...I think Mavs can get it going tonight against us and once they get their fast break rolling it could snowball as Mavs need a statement win right now and we are in a bad spot as they've had great offensive success early and often against us in the past

Spurs TT over 100.5 with their guard heavy line-up TWolves eventually end up playing at a frantic tempo at some point every game which allows opposing teams some offensive freedom, as noted above Blazers put up 100 on Wolves WITH 28 turnovers, if Parker takes care of the ball Spurs should be able to better that number

looking forward to the Rockets/Warriors rematch next week in Oakland after Houston embarrassed them last night

Good morning and good luck, make that$$$$$$$ Footyball_Kickyball_Soccer 2:30-4:00 & 9:00 PM EST: England/Brazil - total Over 2½ (-115)              Sweden/Argentina - total Over 2½ (-115)              Honduras-spread pk (-110)             Jamaica - spread +2 (-120) Lakers4life One luv Negril JA!

Good morning and good luck, make that$$$$$$$ Footyball_Kickyball_Soccer 2:30-4:00 & 9:00 PM EST: England/Brazil - total Over 2½ (-115)              Sweden/Argentina - total Over 2½ (-115)              Honduras-spread pk (-110)             Jamaica - spread +2 (-120) Lakers4life One luv Negril JA!

Good morning Lockers.  I come on the board and see Holmey already beat me in locking Oregon St.  I bet this last night and got 6.5 and see it's currently at 7.5.  I won't jump on board and lock this game since Homley has already locked it.  This is a solid play and couldn't agree more with Holmey.  I have meetings all day but hope to have a write up later in the day.  Good luck!

USC...would u play them at -8.5?

Atl. Over 182 Baylor+7.5

Ugh i wish my bookie locked in lines! this think might be 9/9.5 by gametime which def is pushing it IMO. I was seeing a 10pt win by OSU but -9 starts to worry me!

Holy crap!  (-8.5) already?  I actually didn't see that coming.  Maybe by tip, but not this early.

I am sorry about the line move guys.  I jump on lines as soon as they come out because that is the best time to take advantage of a line that might be a little off, so I tried to post it last night as quickly as possible after I got my bet in.  I actually wrote up my writeup yesterday afternoon when I saw an early line at (-5.5) and just waited until I actually got the bet in.  When I went to bed last night, it as still (-6) and (-6.5) across the board, but then after getting back home after being out all morning, I am stunned it went to (-8.5) already. 

I will still post my LOCKS as early as possible if I think a line will move against me.  I try to get them on here as quickly as I can, but that's really as much as I can do.

As for the (-8.5) question, honestly, if I looked at the board at this moment and had to choose (-8.5) or nothing, I think I would not LOCK it at (-8.5).  I would probably still play it, but it would not be a LOCK.  I like (-6) and below because you can still get a lucky 'W' even if the game is close at the end and free throws decide it.  Once you get over (-6.5), to cover that, you usually need for it to be a steady blowout.  Nonetheless, I think that there is a double-digit difference in talent between these teams, and Oregon State has the home advantage, so it is still a decent play, IMO.

Going to get some LOCK results done from last night and start posting some records and such.  Good luck today everyone.

PS - I wouldn't be surprised if that lines corrects itself sometime today.  I doubt it keeps climbing.  I usually see lines turn around midday when they open and dart in one direction.  Its not a certainty - obviously - but it could go back a point or so sometime today.  Hopefully, anyway.

2-1 last night with UIC running into a buzz-saw. Nothing like holding KK and seeing a guy flip over AA. Oops.

Games I'm looking at tonight (will be narrowed down):

E. Mich +2.5
Duquesne +4.5
Ball St. +10.5
Marshall +5
Colorado St. -6.5

Lockstrap love that pick on Nevada. I saw the game vs the Lobos and they were right there until about 5 min left in the game and the lack of depth caught up with them on the road. Their guard play is solid and feel they will have more energy here at home. Mountain West is tough place to win on the road. Looking heavy at that Air force vs New Mexico game. The Lobos traditionally has always had the falcons number. This smells like a blowout here as UNM can really take control of the conference with a win here to go 7-1 thru the first go round. They will have much tougher the back half with road games @ CSU, UNLV & Air Force. Go back and look at some of Air Force's road losses vs some of the better teams they were getting crushed. They have played good the last 5 games but 4 of them were at home. One nice road win @ WYO but as you can see WYO has dropped since conference play started. I am going to wait as i feel the line might drop becayse people will take AF and the points

Using a 110/100 juice ratio to do the Standings this year.  Standings and Top-LOCKers will be based on return rather than win percentage.

Current LOCK Results (Minimum 2 tracked LOCKS)
Before you ask why you are not on this list, make sure you review the first post of every day's thread and make sure that what you posted as a LOCK would qualify to be tracked.

lock4u2 --- 9-1 --- CURRENT LOCK GOD (by quite a bit)
jaxfan100 --- 4-0
NegrilJA --- 5-1
EAGLE EYE 5 --- 5-2
Disco Stu --- 2-0
gmanhall --- 2-0
LBJinSOBE --- 2-0-1
ttownandy --- 2-0
georgec --- 3-1
Frozenheat21 --- 2-1
neci0170 --- 2-1
rockafella --- 2-1
ScoGaun --- 4-3

CrispskrillA --- 1-1
Dr2ndHalf --- 1-1
dublinup11 --- 1-1
Jgroove13 --- 1-1
mitchellds --- 1-1
SQUARE --- 1-1
ratman0324 --- 2-2
SportsGal2 --- 2-2
TheLevel21 --- 2-2
therainking --- 2-2

MediaHater --- 1-2
minn930 --- 1-2
Mr. Moparian --- 1-2
YankeePiper --- 1-2
StraightWager --- 0-2
Ripple101 --- 2-4
matthewsg1 --- 0-3
wvmGOBLUE86 --- 0-3
CUTTER260 --- 2-5
coldone0015 --- 1-5
ReggieDunlop --- 1-5