M's sign Saunders

[ Geoff Baker ‏<s>@</s>gbakermariners ]

A look at the Mariners bringing in Joe Saunders to give rotation some needed innings. [http://blogs.seattletimes.com/marin
ers/2013/02/07/mariners-reportedly-
agree-to-one-year-deal-with-pitcher
-joe-saunders/ …]

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A one year deal is the report so nothing hurt, but adding 3 guys who have 1 year left is really odd. It gives them flexibility, but it also gives the players outs which doesn't help a team that can't sign a guy outside the team. Whatever, but it takes the sting out of the Vargas deal and gives us a step forward with Morales instead of a step forward/step back move.

Exactly who I wanted and really like the one year deal. He should slot right into the 3 spot in the rotation. I don't mind the 1 year deals as they bridge to the prospects and are easy to move at the deadline if we aren't in the hunt. I like the moves we've made and if the younger guys step up we may end up being better than many expect.

A one year deal is the report so nothing hurt, but adding 3 guys who have 1 year left is really odd. It gives them flexibility, but it also gives the players outs which doesn't help a team that can't sign a guy outside the team. Whatever, but it takes the sting out of the Vargas deal and gives us a step forward with Morales instead of a step forward/step back move.
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I like this move better than some of the others, solely because it is a one-year deal. It gives the triplets another year to develop without feeling the need to rush them. Takes Noesi (and yes, it would have been Noesi or Carraway. They weren't going to promote Hultzen nor Paxson, and there was noone else within the organization) out of the rotation and puts him back in triple A where he belongs.

And....WOOHOOO!!!....the July firesale just keeps getting better and better. The payroll will be around $60 million by September first.

I could care less what the payroll is September 1st.  Truthfully, if we are out of it and made trades to help next year...great!  If we add guys to make a surprising run..great!  Payroll is overblown in the sense that this team is a developing one and not one expected in the postseason this year.  To constantly bring up payroll isn't relevent at this point as the majority of the core players are guys that aren't even arbitration eligible.  Truthfully, I  am not convinced Jack is done either.  I feel that he may have a trade up his sleeve to move Kelley and someone like Carp/Wells for another pitcher. Thinking perhaps Capuano or Porcello, granted that is just a guess.

Payroll is overblown in the sense that this team is a developing one and not one expected in the postseason this year. To constantly bring up payroll isn't relevent at this point as the majority of the core players are guys that aren't even arbitration eligible.
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I often suspected, but now I'm convinved: you work in Seattle's front office.

To constantly bring up payroll isn't relevent at this point as the majority of the core players are guys that aren't even arbitration eligible

That's problem. Who are these "core guys" Outside of Seager, who has actually proven they can be a core guy? The M's selling the word potential every single offseason is becoming an empty song and dance. Raising payroll is is not overblown because they eventually need to get a proven major league player who is under control. Not these has been vets or getting a guy with all star credits on his resume but only for 1 year.

maybe

To constantly bring up payroll isn't relevent at this point as the majority of the core players are guys that aren't even arbitration eligible. 

A majority of the core players on the team are also not good enough to make the Mariners into a playoff team. Jack has to have a balance between the youth movement and the proven players. Proven players cost money. I think payroll is always relevent but I also think the organization needs to time when they spend money with when the team is ready to contend.  

 Who are these "core guys" Outside of Seager, who has actually proven they can be a core guy?

I agree, the core guys at this point are guys that are young and haven't done anything. Smoak has been bad, I also think he is a better player than he is showing. Ackley was supposed to be a high avg. guy but hasn't shown that yet. 

Maybe these guys turn it around but the key word here is maybe and that is what he organization has been for the last few seasons.  

We don't know what the core is right now, but you don't just go out and spend $ on veterans until you know what you have.  I think that Seager, Saunder, Ackley, and Montero are all good bets to improve on last year.  I hate to speculate on Smoak as he has consistently shown that his late season pushes revert back to mediocrity the next year. I hold out hope as he made a legitimate change to his swing last year, but I have to see it to believe it.  I just don't see what $$ we should have spent that we didn't...outside of potentially signing Bourn (whom I like).  I don't buy into the Swisher as we spend his money on Morales/Morse and covered the same positions.  I do agree with Arizona on Edwin Jackson as I think slotting him into the rotation would have been a good thing, but even then we aren't going to be over $100M with the huge number of young guys on renewable contracts.  The point isn't the amount of payroll spent, it's what it's spent on...in this case, the young guys are going to keep that payroll low the next couple years. It will eventually go up if they develop as we expect.

We don't know what the core is right now, but you don't just go out and spend $ on veterans until you know what you have.
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Every team has 5-7 minor league teams in its organization. Teams never know 'what they have' and it is a piss poor reason not to invest in veterans on the free agent market. If you just sit around waiting for your talent to develop, you tend to miss out on the real talent that is actually available.


I think that Seager, Saunder, Ackley, and Montero are all good bets to improve on last year.
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Ackely, maybe. Not so sure about the other three.

I like Seagar but I think he might have over-achieved last year. I expect a return to reality this year.

Montero has alot of work to do against right-handed pitching. I'm not so sure that he is the natural he appeared to be when he was in the Yankee org.

Saunders was dedicated last year which begs the question: why was he dedicated in 09, 10 and 11? Which Saunders shows up this year? We don't know. I'm not convinced that he can sustain what he started last year. I'm hopeful, but not convinced.

I understand what you are saying but I would argue the following.  Montero did improve versus RH pitching as the season progressed and had not shown he wouldn't be able to do so in the minors.  I actually think that Seagers numbers would have been much better had the changes to Safeco been in place. I do not think he overachieved at all.  I think he will be .280/20HR guy at the major league level.   Ackley was hurt and had messed up mechanics that I think they can fix...he could take the biggest jump.  Saunders is a guy that redid his swing the end of 2011 and through last offseason. I think that made a significant difference in his numbers.  I don't think he is an All Star by any means but I do think he can put up similar line to Seager above.<br /><br />When I said we didn't know the core, it had nothing to do with minor leaguers.  Like you have said in the past, until they perform at the major league level they are just "prospects".  The guys I was referring to were the young major leaguers on the roster.  I don't agree that we should have signed anyone at those positions just because they are veterans.  

Ackley was hurt and had messed up mechanics that I think they can fix...he could take the biggest jump.
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You said the same thing about Smoak around this time last year. I expect Ackley to improve but I don't think the improvement will be anything dramatic. Baby steps. A BA somewhere between .245-.260 with a marginal increae in extra base hits. He still hasn't made a successful adjustment to his approach at the plate since August of 2011. Since August 2011, his batting average in any single month is .257. And like so many hitters on the 2012 squad, right handed pitchers were killing him. I can live with his .246 BA against lefties, but the .215 BA/.593 OPS against right handers has to improve this year or he'll be competing for his second base job in 2014.

My 2 cents, which is worth about .5 cents with this economy, says this:

Seager - I believe he overachieved a bit, but I also think the added protection around him evens out any decline for his sophomore year.
I predict a line of .260/20/80 (much like last year)

Montero - I think he didn't top out last year by any means and think he can improve vs RH's this year.
I predict a line of .265/20/75 (slight improvement over last year)
Saunders - I think playing time will be a factor with his numbers.
I predict a line of .265/15/50 (improve on the average, but power may go down if Guti plays well and they want to play Raul more)


I see Ackley raising his average to around .255, but power stays about the same. Maybe 15 hr range

I think RBI totals can change if we find a legit leadoff hitter who can steal bases. Any of those still out there?

Seager - I believe he overachieved a bit, but I also think the added protection around him evens out any decline for his sophomore year.
I predict a line of .260/20/80 (much like last year)

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I honestly think Seagar should hit leadoff next year. With the acquisitions of Morse and Morales, they don't need him in the middle of the order anymore. Against right handed pitching, he's the only guy with decent speed who had an OBP over .310. Gutierrez can leadoff against lefties and they can drop Seagar to second.

I know that noone views Seagar as a leadoff guy, but when I look at the current roster and their stats from last year, I don't see any other realistic options. They can't put Ackley back there again. He hit .215 against righties with a .272 OBP. Saunders, the only other guy with any speed, had a .306 OBP.

I am in..laugh at me now like they did on the Seahawks board when I said 11-5 preseason! Ackley: .285/.350/.450 Seaver: .275/.335/.450 Saunders: .265/.320/.485 Montero: .280/.330/.500 For the record, I did not say Smoak was gonna be the guy last year. I did say the injuries affected him, and they did, but he had bigger issues, I will step up and say we will win 88 Ames and be in the hunt well into September. I am ready to be attacked..have at it...lol

I hate posting from iPad. Changes words!!

I am in..laugh at me now like they did on the Seahawks board when I said 11-5 preseason! Ackley: .285/.350/.450 Seaver: .275/.335/.450 Saunders: .265/.320/.485 Montero: .280/.330/.500 For the record, I did not say Smoak was gonna be the guy last year. I did say the injuries affected him, and they did, but he had bigger issues, I will step up and say we will win 88 Ames and be in the hunt well into September. I am ready to be attacked..have at it...lol
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Shorter fences, and the addition of Morse/Norales, should help, but you are still talking about a pretty epic turnaround. You have:
Montero going from .685 to .830
Ackely going from .622 to .800
Saunders from .738 to .805
Seagar from .738 to .785

Seagar's is attainable mainly because I think he will hit for a higher average and draw more walks this year, even if his power drops off. But I don't see the other three having turnarounds that dramatic. If Ackley and Montero have turnarounds that big, people will be pointing the roids finger at them.

I am optimistic but think these are all doable.  I remember reading about outs that would have been homeruns with the new configuration for these guys. I expect Ackley to take a huge step this year so that is the most epic turnaround.  I personally think he was well below expectation last year and will be along expectation this year.  Seager is right in line as you said.   Saunders isn't that much of an improvement and the fences should help him as well.  For me, Montero is going to break out this year although I may be a bit high on the Slg% on him.  Adjust that more in the .475 range and I think we are looking at pretty attainable numbers.  How about this...I'll stick Smoak as winning the firstbase job and hitting .260/.315/.450 with 25+ HR.

After reading this "A highlight on Saunders’ resume is his track record at Safeco Field. During his time as an Angel, Saunders went 6-0 with a 2.13 ERA in nine starts in Seattle." I like this signing even more. Obviously pitching against one of the worst offensive teams had someting to do with that but the park and him being and extreme groundball/contact pitcher had to play a part, atleast thats im hoping.

Obviously pitching against one of the worst offensive teams had someting to do with that
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Ya think?