tough keeper choice....need help

ok, so this is a 6X6 (traditional with OPS) h2h  16 team league (so 2nd base is scarce)



billy hamilton or Jose Altuve?

this will end up being my 25th round pick and then the pick accelerates by 3 rounds each year so i can keep them for the next 7 years after this.


i suppose hamilton could end up with SS or 2B eligibility even though he is projected as an OF....

pretty hard to pass up on hamiltons potential SBs and his ops is prety decent for a speedster albeit in the low minors.

altuve is a serious sparkplug of a hitter that seems like a legit 290 + hitter with a very reachable 15-35 potential at a weak position.



thought i would automatically keep hamilton but im having some doubts....


any input?       

I think you have to go with Hamilton, and hope that he continues to develop.  He just seems to be one of those "once in a lifetime" talents, even if it is only right now for his speed and stolen base potential.

Position scarcity. Altuve is an All-Star at a position that doesn't generate much offense. Getting that in the 25th round is huge.

Jose Altuve is solid, but Billy Hamilton has a huge fantasy upside, especially if he sticks in the IF.  I'd draft Hamilton for the "big impact" factor, he's got dominant speed that could lock up a category for you for years to come.

Jose Altuve is solid, but there are still some cheap(er) alternatives like Omar Infante, Dustin Ackley or Gordon Beckham that could keep that position competitive for you.  

When it all comes down to you, you may miss Altuve at 2B for you won't regret passing on him.  If you pass on Billy Hamilton and he breaks out even close to projections, you will absolutely regret it. 

^  yea that is my stance right now, but altuve had that year as a rookie.  he seems like a lock for 285-95-12-60-30 and with a serviceable OPS. 2B is so thin and we only have 3  OF, so they really arent a problem.  Hamilton might spend most of the season in the minors as well.



i could really regret not keeping hiamilton, especially since he sat on my bench for most of last season AND i chose him over both Dylan Bundy and profar for his potentially ridiculous fantasy impact.  I also thought he was going to stick around in the middle infield....i suppose he could make the jump to 2B which would be nice.


tough choice and i hate just going with potential and hope, because that usually isnt how leagues are won. 


    

thanks for the input guys....wanted to see what some other early preseason peeps thought about it.

If you pass on Billy Hamilton and he breaks out even close to projections, you will absolutely regret it. 

Not really...How long will you be waiting for him to be called up? Not to mention the time it takes to develop. It really depends on the rest of the roster, but if you always play for the future, you will never win in the present.

i hate just going with potential and hope, because that usually isnt how leagues are won.  

precisely.

but if you always play for the future, you will never win in the present.

You're right, this is a struggle for any keeper league.  It really depends on who else you can get at 2B to keep Billy Hamilton.  I think there are some decent players that would still be out there, but they all do have holes that Altuve doesn't have.  

This is a good problem to have, two good choices to pick from.  I would go Hamilton and live and die by his development, hoping that Choo can't quite grasp playing CF fulltime or that Hamilton simply wows in spring training.  Good luck this season, let us know how this one turns out for you. 

yea basically, i can afford to take the risk on hamilton.  16 team league and i get longoria in the 9th, bumgarner in the 4th, bautista in the 19th and either Jim Johnson/bret anderson in the 14th/16th and millone in the 24th.



i can reach for altuve or another 2B in the draft.....i wont know which 2B are being kept until after i submit my keepers but i know there will be a few guys to pick.



i cant pass up on the value of hamilton and possibly keeping him for 6 or 7 years... even if its just potential.....my solid keepers allow me to take the risk.  its the same thing i did with longoria when he sat on my bench for a year and a half while in the minors.....but granted,  he was more cant miss than hamilton.        

i do miss the mark sometimes though, like i had teheran on my squad for a year and a half before i decided to move in another direction and dropped him in the middle of last year. 

any more input?


i have another day to decide but am thinking hamilton.


altuve is such a good hitter though, he is batting title good.

10 hr and 35 steals along with 100 runs and a 300+ average is no slouch.


Can i really give up 7 years of that at the thin 2nd base position for the potential in hamilton?  hamilton will be an OF as well which hurts his value.



such a tough decision..... and i thought id be ok with losing altuve and im NOT.             

altuve is such a good hitter though, he is batting title good.

That's a real big stretch here.  He could hit .300 sure, but he would have to show me a season or two where he hovers the .310-.315 mark before I'd make that claim.  He batted .290 in 630 PAs last season.  Sure, you could go "half-full" and think the numbers will improve this year as he make adjustments.  I'm more inclined to go "half-empty" and say that pitchers will have a better handle on him.  

i like your perspective and thanks for the input again.  Yea he is so young though, id expect adjustments from both sides but big talent usually outadjusts opponents.  Hopefully that is true for hamilton too lol.  Maybe i am over hoping altuve's talent.  And minor league averages are hard to replicate in the majors but i see something special in him, like almost Dustin Pedroia special without as much power but more speed, or actually they are both pretty slow because of their height but both just have that killer instinct that leads to basepath dominance....altuve did get caught 11 times out of 44 attempts which is pretty great for first full season.

hamilton hasnt even played in the upper minors yet.  love his walks and his OBP of somewhere around 412 last year is truly amazing, but im having a hrd time letting go of altuve to assume more risk with hamilton and have him sit on my bench for a few months while he is back in the minors.....letting go of a proven commodity in altuve is tough, especially as a 2B which is hard to find in a 16 team keeper league, ill be lucky if altuve is left for me at pick 47 in the 3rd round because of all the guys kept.  i doubt hamilton would make it much past round 12-14 even with at least an arbitration delay stint in the minors in his future.  Hamilton does have potential 2nd round pick in him though if he can get on base and steal anywhere near what he has shown, but is the potential for that worth giving up a proven and in my opinion still improving 4th or 5th rounder for years to come?

    

I think it depends on the rest of your team. I guess Hamilton's ceiling is higher than Altuve, fair. But he could be a huge risk, and Altuve is a safer choice. If you have a lot of safe guys already as your other keepers, then go with the lottery ticket. But if you have a couple of lottery tickets already, go with the safer bet.

yea, 6X6 league too.... hamilton will crush runs and SB's.....and i dont think he will hurt in average and OPS because he seems to walk alot and beat out routine grounders for hits etc...  but he will hurt in rbis and hr's and i will probably be oversaturated in steals....this is a h2h league that uses the hybrid roto formula with 6X6.

i CAN afford the lottery ticket but its still such a tough choice.


watched a lot of youtubes of billy H tonight and he is as fast as anyone ive ever seen, but he has a  rough hitchy swing with a lot of movement  IMO and he has some work to do before he will be able to hit for average in the majors.  He did however really cut down his k's between 2011 and 2012 and did so while making a jump in leagues.  His walk rate is compelling for a guy with that kind of speed.


         

Any help you may get from Altuve would be minimal imo.Since it's a keeper league I'd take a chance with Hamilton.He's been tearing it up on the basepaths & could very well be an early call up,especially if Cozart falters or gets hurt.I don't think Cozart is anything special anyway & imo the Reds don't either.Hamilton is obviously the Reds SS of the future & if he's available I'd scoop him up in a heartbeat.

they seem set on putting him in the OF, im hoping that the move is just to increase his versatility and to find him somewhere to play this year.

Im 90% going with hamilton since i can afford the risk but i do really love altuve...

dont forget that they are both only 22 years old and altuve jumed to the majors with very little AA and no AAA experience.


i have a lot of room left for altuve to improve on power and i honestly think he is a 300+ hitter. with 12-15 hr and 35 sb being a safe bet with a higher ceiling than that.  the more i talk about it the more i want to keep him.  prob be reaching for him mighty early if i keep hamilton.

one thing i will say is that hamilton would be a huge trade chip seince he will get tons of hype.


    
either way i am really questioning my decision to drop profar for hamilton last year....100 SB would be nice but no HRs and rbis will hurt ESPECIALLY in a 6X6 league even though hamilton will prob assure me of 25 wins during the year in SB (yahoo h2h).  I made that move thinking that hamilton would be staying at SS or at least 2B.


i really hope he isnt Dee Gordon JR 

              

Hamilton is the future. Altuve is the present as well as the future. He can help you win now as well as later.