Original LOCK Thread - 2/13/2013 - Post Your LOCK

Lock Record 10-2

Lock Oregon St. + 3.5


Good morning lockers.  Sorry for the lock loser last time out.  I hope to get back on track with a solid winner tonight hopefully.  One of my two lock losses is this exact game I picked Oregon St. -4 I believe to beat Washington St.  They lost outright by 3 points and the difference was at the free throw line.  It didn't help Lacy scoring 23 points and Brock having a great 2nd half.  Also Oregon St. allowing 42 points to be scored in the 2nd half.  I believe that Oregon St is just flat out the better team.  If you look at every stat scoring, rebounding, blocks, steals, 3 pt fg Oregon St has the better stats.  the only stat I see that Wash St is better  is 3 percentage points hight at the free throw line.  They also lost the game because they got out rebounded by 10.  I look for a better defensive rebounding effort from Oregon St.  I also like that fact on the road Oregon St. has 5 guys that averasge double figures in points and Moreland is at 9.3 so almost 6 guys.  I've watched both these team play over 5 times and I don't see Washington St. beating them again.  I'm taking the the team I  believe is better and getting points. Busy at work but wanted to put this lock on the board.  Good luck Lockers on your plays.

I also would like to point out that each day I have been there that I have passed on one or more LOCKS for tracking purposes because the writeups did not suffice per the rules in the first post of each day's thread.  Please make sure that you read what we expect from a LOCK post.  "I am going against the public here" or a bunch of cut-and-pasted stats from Covers do not count as an adequate writeup, which is meant to show your original expertise.  Please see lock4u2 or CitizenDick's writeups from today or coldone0015's writeup from yesterday if you want to know what we are looking for.  gmanhall's from today is a good example also.  There are many more as well, but please try to emulate these writeups when posting a LOCK if you want it tracked. 

Thanks for understanding and best of luck today!

@Munford Listen I am not here to bullshit**** and I am here like everybody else to make money. I did not create the system, a buddy of mine did.  I just follow it when I think it is hot.  I will post the criteria in a few minutes when I can get a chance.  I have been a degenerate gambler since my bookie days in high school.  I'd appreciate it if you got off my case.  I bet you're one of those "big guys" that claims he is hitting 75% of picks. PLEASE if you are, let me know because I would like to put my bankroll up that you cant even hit 65% for a week let alone a year.

The system follows teams that play their fourth game in 5 days.  Four or more road games with fourth or fifth game being in Denver or Utah.  Back to back games with second game being in Denver or Utah and Utah or Denver having the previous night off.  And last section which I do not agree with is the Nationally Televised games going under in the first half or doubling up on the second half under.  Now I will leave you to do your own homework to see if the record is credible because I rest my case.  Not on here to fight, on here to get insight on games and try to win some coin.

 

& you are right i am NEW to this message board because I just stumbled upon it.  That is EXACTLY why I haven't posted all of my plays.

. Both your ids are Heat season ticket holders so you should try to meet yourself at one of the games.  


L M F A O!!!  That's funny...

LOCK HOUSTON ROCKETS +10.5! I know Harden is doubtful tonight but I'm not really worried if he plays or not! The clippers just came off an 8 game road trip and this is there first game since coming back on Monday after a win vs Philly! Most of the time teams will tend to come out sluggish after a road trip like that. Houston is a fast paced uptempo team that likes to run the ball, I know they are on a b2b but the travel was not to far! I expect the rockets to bring their fast paced offense out onto the court tonight and keep this game close! I look at this as a revenge game for Houston after a month ago when LA came into their house and beat them 117-109. I hope the rockets pull off the upset but I believe 10.5 is way to many points to be laying for the clips! Good Luck,Rock. 14-3 last 17 and 4-1 on locks!

Good job rock-awhile Marsh-13 S ill -1 Miss pk

Adding 1 more play! Magic +3! Good luck! Thanks Sarge

Champions League 2:45 ET:


Real / Man U over  3  -115.


Man U's attack is now world class and Real's attack is well-known.  Man U is a bit weak in the back and DeGea in goal hasn't completely convinced.  I can't see Real not pressing today and then waiting for a result at Old Trafford in the next leg.   I'm also looking for RVP to make a statement, as this is the type of match that prompted his move from Arsenal.   

Lock Alert!

NBA Brooklyn -2.5 - It was 1.5 this morning and I wish I would have jumped on it then.  Nevertheless it doesn't change my mind at all on this play.  This is, plain and simple, a horrible spot for the Nuggets.  4th game in 5 nights.  They had the evil triple OT loss to Boston where Boston hit 2-3 insane shots to pull it out of the fire (especially Pierce's 3 pointer).  Then last night they fought their tail off in Toronto only to be stung by a Rudy Gay jumper with 4 seconds left to win by one.  Needless to say that's probably not the road trip they were dreaming off when they left Denver sitting on a 10 game winning streak.  Now they head into Brooklyn, tired and beaten down, and the last game before the all-star break.  Ask yourself, would you want to play rough and tumble Brooklyn in this position?  Reggie Evans, Brook Lopez banging you around all night.  Plus, Brooklyn has the #1 PA defense in the league.  I still see that Gallinari and Igoudala are ?? too.  Even if they both play, I still love this play.  The only advantage the Nugs have is Lawson at PG with Deron out...even he has to be a little wiped out.  Mark me down for Brooklyn!

Smaller play - Over 198 - When the Nuggets don't have their heart in it they typically play zero defense.  I think the 2nd half will yield plenty of points for the Nets.

Best of Luck!

UEFA Champions League

Dortmund pk 2.10 medium play

Real Madrid over 3 large play not a lock 

Shakhtar/Dortund over 1 goal  first half small 

Welbeck, Rooney, Kagawa and Van Persie starting for Man U so I agree with murve look for some goals. Potential for shootout with four strikers. With Real, you know they pack the punch. If Man U grab an early one, look for the flood gates to ensue.

LOCK - MAN U DRAW/NO BET +256

Leans : Man U / Real First Half Over 1.5 Goals (+110)

           Shaktar / Borussia First Half Over 1.5 Goals (+160) - Borussia have been scoring and allowing goals an incredible pace recently. 
                                                                                      I dont see much changing today with their lineup.

Balls1,

I was thinking the same thing with the Nova line as well. And it got me wondering about something: When the public loves a dog and the line moves the other way, should I start to hammer the favorite? This happened twice last night with Marquette and Kansas State. The public liked both teams by about 60% - 40% and yet the line jumped.

A couple of games fit that bill tonight: VA Tech +14 vs. VA, Townson +4 vs. James Madison, Kentucky +10.5 vs. Florida, Villanova +7.5 vs. Cincy.

So the plays would be: Virginia, JMU, Florida and Cincy. I'm honestly not gonna touch any, except MAYBE Cincy. See how it goes.

Those picks went 4-0. In full disclosure I backed out of the Cincy bet and only went with Kentucky. Those 4 games along with the 2 from the previous night put this new found system at 6-0. Is it going to hold up? I doubt it. Is it worth looking into? Why the heck not. I'll give it a look tonight and see who fits the bill for tonight.

And can you believe it? I actually hit a lock. Armagedon is upon us.