Meteorite Hits Russia, A-gon and Crawfish bash so

baltimore's pythag was 82-80...they got incredibly lucky....its not like its a given that you win a lot of games you shouldn't with a good bp

and the Red Sox don't have the starters to get 500+ innings of sub-4 ERA...they just don't 


Luck??

They had 5 guys with at least 160 ERA+ with at least 50 innings each...

There was luck...but lets not overblow it here because of Pthag...

But to a greater point... Red Sox actually getting 5 guys with a 160 era this year...well?  Yeah, they be dreaming of pipes..

 

The key will be Buccholz' health.

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i think the key is lackey

he was mediocre in 2011, but I think he got into the 7th more often than not

im more worried about buchholz staying healthy

 

still haven't figured out that "context" thing eh?

I was referring to their "upside" ONLY in relation to what you can reasonably expect out of gomes, victorino, dempster, and napoli

I get it.  I just don't know if you are right.  AGonz wasn't setting the world on fire in Boston last year and, while I would expect better this year if he were still there, I'm not sure if he was heading back to being an All-star again.  Crawford is definitely a question mark after that surgery.  I'm not sure WHAT to expect from him.  The dropoff from Crawford to Victorino might not be all that great.  And Beckett is Beckett.  We know what he had become in Boston.  Certainly better than Dempster, but nothing special, either.

77 was the pace pre-blow up...that's about what they should expect this year....which is why I say they spent nearly the same amount of money and ended up with pretty much the same team....the more things change..
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I like how "virtually identical" is now "nearly the same"


And again...the team is better from an organizational stand point...if sox fans have illusions of winning the WS this year?  That's their fault...

I agree...I'm saying they're a team that will be within a few games of .500 which is what we saw all year last year...but they are doing so SPENDING $15m less (about the size of 1 sizeable MLB contract) aka "more flexbilirt" as in additional future flexibility with dumping horrible contracts on the Dodgers...

I love that you keep humping word choice like 15M is a cavernous amount of difference between the payrolls

The farm system is vastly improved, especially in the MLB ready pitching department... 

which has what to do with the payroll currently?

and I'd rather spend the extra 15M and get the potential upside of agonz, crawford, and beckett 
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LOL...now Beckett and Crawford have "upside"


Got to ****ing love this guy...never fails to contridict YEARS of bashing guys after they are shipped out.... 

no, they just have more POTENTIAL upside than victorino, gomes, dumpster, and napoli.

 the known awfulness that is gomes, victorino, and dempster. gomes, victorino, and dempster...plus the injury probability of napoli 
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Less risk, Gomes is a 2 year deal for not much money, and the other 3 are off the books in 3 years or less. 

This wasn't the FA market to toss money around in....I like they approach, not so much the guys they spent on...but the approach was the rigth one this year.


If they get a bounce back year from Victorino and Drew?  This offseason looks a lot better....I have low expectations for Dempster (mediocre to sub-mediocre) and Napoli (won't play 100n games)....

ummm so you'd rather get gomes and dempster for 2 years and victo for 3 years


than the same amount of time for beckett and additional 1 year for crawford, and 2 years for agonz?


I wouldn't 

victorino isnt what he was

he also isnt awful

cool...he was a slightly better than average player "before"....so....awful now

And if you don't think Lackey an dempster represent significant upgrades over what they got from Cook, Fice-K and bard last year?  You're ****ing nuts....

See.  I disagree.  I think Lackey and Dempster effin suck.  Between Cook, Dice-K, Lackey and Dempster you have a bunch of guys in the bottom 10% of MLB-caliber starters.  I'm not including Bard in that dialogue because he never should have been a starter in the first place!

baltimore's pythag was 82-80...they got incredibly lucky....its not like its a given that you win a lot of games you shouldn't with a good bp

and the Red Sox don't have the starters to get 500+ innings of sub-4 ERA...they just don't 


Luck??

They had 5 guys with at least 160 ERA+ with at least 50 innings each...

There was luck...but lets not overblow it here because of Pthag...

But to a greater point... Red Sox actually getting 5 guys with a 160 era this year...well?  Yeah, they be dreaming of pipes..

They got lucky....and you agree with me about the red sox not having those guys

I'm thinking agon is more likely


They dissected Adrian Gonzalez's last 4 seasons on Clubhouse Confidential the other day.

His HR rate has dropped each of the last for years, from 40 in 2009 to 18 last year. 

His walk rate has dropped each of the last 4 years, from something like 22% in 09 to 6% last year.

His swings at pitches out of the K zone has risen each of the last 4 years, from 25% in 09 to 35% last year.


Their conclusion was that he's a rapidly declining player.

Maybe he bounces back, but those 4 year trends are awful. 

victorino isnt what he was

he also isnt awful

They could have had Bourne for the same money (basically).  Should have done that instead...

cool...he was a slightly better than average player "before"....so....awful now that he is a Red Sox

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more accurate

im done

have a good weekend, gents 

The problem will be getting to the pen. They're going to need the starters to consistantly get them to the 7th inning. They might get that out of Lester and maybe Doubront. But then things get tricky. If Dempster and Lackey are getting lit up a lot, the pen could suffer from burnout. The key will be Buccholz' health. If going to have to be out there every 5 days, pitching well or they will be in trouble. 

Orioles were pretty low in IP per game by starters...Id have to double check...But I know the Orioles Bullpen pitched ALOT of innings last year. The Orioles Bullpen ERA makes up a good chunk of the Orioles overall era... More than most teams bullpens...

But that could just be because of all those Extra inning games... they had 2 or 3 18 inning games... 

still haven't figured out that "context" thing eh?

I was referring to their "upside" ONLY in relation to what you can reasonably expect out of gomes, victorino, dempster, and napoli

I get it.  I just don't know if you are right.  AGonz wasn't setting the world on fire in Boston last year and, while I would expect better this year if he were still there, I'm not sure if he was heading back to being an All-star again.  Crawford is definitely a question mark after that surgery.  I'm not sure WHAT to expect from him.  The dropoff from Crawford to Victorino might not be all that great.  And Beckett is Beckett.  We know what he had become in Boston.  Certainly better than Dempster, but nothing special, either.

put it this way


agonz really bad year last year is about the best case scenario you can get from napoli....and its a pretty safe bet agonz is going to improve



beckett is in an even year....and dumpster sucks...lackey sucks....of those three you'd choose dumpster or lackey?  no you wouldn't



and crawfod is a question mark...but at worst, you get league average production from nava in his stead in stead of leage average production for 13M...this one probably isn't the best argument for me...but it crawford is back to being what he was, his upside is still better than victorino's

im more worried about buchholz staying healthy

Which is why I think he's the key. If he's out, they have to plug someone in there (Miller or some AAA guy?) who will likely be a 5-ish inning pitcher. The strength of the team, the bull pen, will be burned out in short order if they are being run out there day in and day out because the last 3 pitchers in the rotation can't get out of the 6th inning. I think even a mediocre Lester keeps them in the game and gives them 7 innings.

And if you don't think Lackey an dempster represent significant upgrades over what they got from Cook, Fice-K and bard last year?  You're ****ing nuts.... 

See.  I disagree.  I think Lackey and Dempster effin suck.  Between Cook, Dice-K, Lackey and Dempster you have a bunch of guys in the bottom 10% of MLB-caliber starters.  I'm not including Bard in that dialogue because he never should have been a starter in the first place!

and down conveniently forgot that they're replacing beckett as well...cook and dice-k combine to equal one awful starter...beckett is the other....I'd go with even year beckett + one awful starter over two guaranteed awful starters

They dissected Adrian Gonzalez's last 4 seasons on Clubhouse Confidential the other day.

His HR rate has dropped each of the last for years, from 40 in 2009 to 18 last year. 

His walk rate has dropped each of the last 4 years, from something like 22% in 09 to 6% last year.

His swings at pitches out of the K zone has risen each of the last 4 years, from 25% in 09 to 35% last year.

And he was the "Gem" the Dodgers got in that deal.  I don't regret that trade at all.  I don't even mind the crappy guys they brought in with the money that was saved.  This isn't going to be their year to contend anyway.  The good minor league talent is 1-2 years away and they'll have plenty of flexibility to sign impact players at that time.

cool...he was a slightly better than average player "before"....so....awful now that he is a Red Sox

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more accurate

im done 

have a good weekend, gents 

"sub mediocre isn't awful!"


~ RSG and the poor red sox fanbase 

And he was the "Gem" the Dodgers got in that deal.  I don't regret that trade at all.


You should regret it. They gave up Rizzo for him, who appears to be becoming a pretty good player. Still too early to tell, but still.

I was one who used to say the Red Sox hosed the Padres on that deal, but it looks the other way around honestly.

And then the Padres screw themselves by shipping off Rizzo in favor of Yonder Alonso. 

agonz really bad year last year is about the best case scenario you can get from napoli....and its a pretty safe bet agonz is going to improve

beckett is in an even year....and dumpster sucks...lackey sucks....of those three you'd choose dumpster or lackey?  no you wouldn't

and crawfod is a question mark...but at worst, you get league average production from nava in his stead in stead of leage average production for 13M...this one probably isn't the best argument for me...but it crawford is back to being what he was, his upside is still better than victorino's


I don't really disagree with what you wrote.  But the ability to shed all those crappy contracts outweighs the "potential upside" from AGonz, Crawford and Beckett this year.  It's not like those 3 make the Red Sox into title contenders.  Crawford is a HUGE question mark.  Beckett had checked out and had enough of Boston.  AGonz is certainly better than Napoli, but Napoli is on a short deal and gives them more flexibility for the position going forward.  AGonz just seemed to check out last year.  Somehow Bobby V. playing him in the outfield seemed to ruin him.  Not sure why, but I'm not shedding any tears about those guys being gone.  Their replacements might not be as good this year, but it will look better down the road.

agonz really bad year last year is about the best case scenario you can get from napoli....and its a pretty safe bet agonz is going to improve

beckett is in an even year....and dumpster sucks...lackey sucks....of those three you'd choose dumpster or lackey?  no you wouldn't

and crawfod is a question mark...but at worst, you get league average production from nava in his stead in stead of leage average production for 13M...this one probably isn't the best argument for me...but it crawford is back to being what he was, his upside is still better than victorino's 


I don't really disagree with what you wrote.  But the ability to shed all those crappy contracts outweighs the "potential upside" from AGonz, Crawford and Beckett this year.  It's not like those 3 make the Red Sox into title contenders.  Crawford is a HUGE question mark.  Beckett had checked out and had enough of Boston.  AGonz is certainly better than Napoli, but Napoli is on a short deal and gives them more flexibility for the position going forward.  AGonz just seemed to check out last year.  Somehow Bobby V. playing him in the outfield seemed to ruin him.  Not sure why, but I'm not shedding any tears about those guys being gone.  Their replacements might not be as good this year, but it will look better down the road.

that's the thing....they shedded those contracts and signed more bad ones!


3 years for victorino v. 4 years for crawford...huge difference?

2 years for beckett v. 2 years for dumpster....same

5 years for agonz is obviously a big difference to the one year for napoli....but that was even going to be a 3 year deal til the red sox got lucky 

You should regret it. They gave up Rizzo for him, who appears to be becoming a pretty good player. Still too early to tell, but still.

I was one who used to say the Red Sox hosed the Padres on that deal, but it looks the other way around honestly.
And then the Padres screw themselves by shipping off Rizzo in favor of Yonder Alonso. 

Exactly.  SD blew it by shipping Rizzo out too early (assuming Rizzo pans out and I think he looks legit).  When the Red Sox traded Rizzo it made more sense.  There wasn't going to be a place for him to play with AGonz in town for 7 years (in theory).  HOWEVER, you still need to consider that the Sox got 2 prospects from the Dodgers in Webster and De la Rosa.  De La Rosa could be legit.  You just never know with prospects....