Here are my tournament selections/bubble teams if the committee met today. This isn't a prediction of how it will finish, but more of a "Who's in right now" kind of thing.
CC: St. Louis
IN: Butler, VCU, La Salle, Temple
Comment: I have Temple in for now, but w/ games vs La Salle and @Charlotte this week, they can cement a spot or play back to the bubble.
CC: Miami (FL)
IN: Duke, NC State, North Carolina
Bubble: Maryland, Virginia
CC; Oklahoma St.
IN: Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma
Bubble: Iowa St., Baylor
IN: Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Notre Dame
Comment: All the other bubble teams are thankful UCONN is on probation because they'd be "IN" otherwise.
CC: Michigan St.
IN: Indiana, Michigan, Ohio St., Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois
Comment: I definitely have Iowa out right now, but they still have a shot to play their way in, especially if other bubble teams lose.
Comment: This is one of very few conferences this year where a "surprise" team could pop someone else's bubble by winning the conf tourney. Memphis would still get in, but the CUSA would move from a 1 bid to a 2 bid league.
CC: Wichita St.
Comment: I have to agree that with the 2 losses this past week, Indiana St. has played their way right off the bubble. I will also noe however that no team in the MVC is safe as if a team like Northern Iowa or Evansville or someone were to take the MVC tourney, both WSU and Creighton both could still play their way behind the bubble.
CC: New Mexico
IN: Colorado St., UNLV (Barely), San Diego St. (Barely)
Bubble: Boise St., Wyoming, Air Force
Comment: It may be a little unfair based on how strong they looked early on, but for right now, Colorado St. and New Mexico are the only "surefire" selections from the MWC. I do think they will still get 4-5, but not very many of them are locks currently.
IN: Arizona, UCLA, Colorado
Bubble: Arizona St., California
Bubble: Kentucky, Arkansas, Alabama, Ole Miss
Bubble: St. Mary's
This leaves only 7 spots open and Charlotte, Maryland, Virginia, Iowa St., Baylor, Villanova, Iowa, Boise St., Wyoming, Air Force, Arizona St., California, Kentucky, Arkansas, Alabama, Ole Miss and St. Mary's (17 teams) playing for them.
If it were selected today, I would think Charlotte, Maryland, Baylor, Boise St, St. Mary's, Arkansas, Arizona St. would be the most worthy with a "1st Four Out" of Iowa St., California, Ole Miss and Villanova, followed by a "Next Four" of Kentucky, Air Force, Alabama and Virginia. This leaves Wyoming and Iowa a little further back, but not out of it yet by any means.
Also, I think if one is putting Arkansas on the bubble, Tennessee has to be mentioned as well.I don't think Tennessee "has to" be mentioned as well. Arkansas has a better W/L record and in the past 2 weeks has a decisive win over Florida. I'll admit they are on the fringe, but I also believe they are better than Ole Miss (but I'd put Alabama and Tennessee in that boat as well). I do agree that most still have Ole Miss in for now, but they just about lost to Georgia the other day (which alone could have put them on the bubble) and still have plenty of chances to play their way out. As far as me using the "If they selected right now" however, I'll admit that maybe I've been too hard on them and that as of right now they'd still be clinging on to a spot. Tennessee and their 12 losses though are a lost cause, whereas Arkansas has clearly moved up onto the bubble.
Tennessee and their 12 losses though are a lost cause?
If it were selected today, I would think Charlotte, Maryland, Baylor, Boise St, St. Mary's, Arkansas, Arizona St. would be the most worthy with a "1st Four Out" of Iowa St., California, Ole Miss and Villanova, followed by a "Next Four" of Kentucky, Air Force, Alabama and Virginia. This leaves Wyoming and Iowa a little further back, but not out of it yet by any means.I now have to criticize my own comment. After doing some further review, I can see now that Arkansas would not be in if committee met today (or on Monday when this was posted). I'd swap in any of the 4 listed as my "1st Four Out", but if I had to predict, I'd say it would go to Ole Miss for now. I'm not sure that Arkansas would even make the 1st Four Out group. Basically after the teams that get in, then Iowa St., Villanova and Cal, basically all the other teams are on even ground right now. Even Iowa may be closer than I originally gave them credit for. I mean honestly, it wouldn't take much (if anything) for them to move up over Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky or Cal.