The Bubble 02/18/2013

I tried, but it didn't post
IN= 9 Seed or better

Big 10
CC: Indiana
IN: Mich. State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio State, Illinois
Bubble: Iowa
Comment: Iowa needs help. RPI ins the upper 70's low 80's, but 1 or 2 wins over an IN, and RPI will jump into the 50's.
37-6=31

ACC
CC: Miami
IN: Duke, NC State, NC, Maryland
Bubble: Virginia
Comment: VA's profile looks erely similar to VA Tech.'s past profiles, when they got left behind. Weak OOC SOS, no bad losses, but no good wins.
31-4=27

A 10
CC: VCU
IN: Butler, Saint Louis
Bubble: Charlotte, La Salle
27-2=25

Big East
CC: Syracuse
IN: G-town, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Marquette, Norte Dame
Comment: Nova is on the fringe of the bubble but 16-10, is going to be tough to sell, not that overall record matters completely, but it's not good.
25-6=19

Big 12
CC: Kansas
IN: Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State
Bubble: Oklahoma, Baylor
19-3=16

CUSA
CC: Memphis
Bubble: So. Miss.

MAC
CC: Akron
Bubble: Ohio

MVC
CC: Wichita State
IN: Creighton
Comment: IN State racks up bad losses about as easy as good wins. Along with Nova, the bubble has floated away for now.
16-1=15

MWC
CC: New Mexico
IN: Colorado State, UNLV
Bubble: SD State, Boise State, Air Force, Wyoming
Comment: Everyone's computer profile benefits by NM having a single digit RPI.
15-2=13

PAC 12
CC: Oregon
IN: Arizona
Bubble: UCLA, Colorado State, Arizona State, CAL
Comment: UCLA is more than likely in, but in the 10ish seed area.
13-1=12

SEC
CC: Florida
IN: Missouri
Bubble: Mississippi, Alabama, Kentucky, Arkansas
Comment: Well, it's Florida and everybody else, and honestly MO's profile is shaky for a 9 seed. THe only reason for AR is the win over Florida, but as crazy as the SEC has been, a trip to the SEC conf. final, could land some team like AR in the NCAA's, granted as a 12 seed, but in.
12-1=11

WCC
CC: Gonzaga
Bubble: Saint Mary's, BYU
Comment: Saint Mary's pretty much cannot lose to any WCC team now. Beating Creighton will help some. BYU/St. Mary's game is basically an elimination game for BYU.

Good job jhzak!  I think you pretty much nailed things here.  Of note about Virginia:  they did beat Wisconsin, which probably constitutes their best win, but they also lost to Old Dominion, which is one of only 3 wins for the Monarchs this year, and that would qualify as a horrible loss!  Yet, they beat Maryland in College Park prior to the Terrapins knocking off Duke.

All may not be lost for Brigham Young.  They play at St. Mary's, but they get Gonzaga at home.  The Cougars and Gaels will likely be the 2-3 seeds in the West Coast Tournament, and if they hook up in Las Vegas, the loser of that contest will probably be out of the mix come Selection Sunday.  Santa Clara is the wild card team in the WCC.

While Indiana State is faltering in the MVC, they are capable of winning the title in St. Louis, but can they potentially beat Creighton and Wichita State on consecutive days?  For that matter, Illinois State and Northern Iowa are considered wild cards now, based on their recent play.  I wouldn't put it past the 4-5 seed to knock off the top-seeded team at St. Louis this year.

The Atlantic 10 Tourney ought to be as compelling to watch as the Mountain West and Big East affairs.  So many solid teams at the top end of the standings.  There's no such thing as a night off in this league.  Like everywhere else but the Ivy League, the question becomes:  who do you trust to play well for three or four consecutive days to win the automatic bid?

For Mountain West fans living outside the orbit of the Thomas & Mack Center, the feeling has to be:  avoid UNLV at all costs!  The Runnin' Rebels have not dominated the league like they did when Jerry Tarkanian was prowling the sidelines, but hosting the MWC finals is a terrific advantage for them.  Whoever knocks off the Rebels on their home floor would have to feel worthy of an at-large bid, if they did it before the title game.

This year will probably be the last, best Big East Tournament, but what a way to go out!  Seven legitimate teams could win this thing, and if Connecticut were eligible, it would be 8.  Villanova and St. John's will get a boost for at-large consideration based on the overall strength of the league, but either will probably have to make the semi-finals or even lose in the championship to merit such consideration.  The Wildcats lost by 18 points earlier this season to Columbia, which is about as bad as Virginia losing by 1 to Old Dominion.

For the Big 12, Oklahoma could use a signature conference road win, as does Baylor.  Iowa State's loss at Texas really hurt the Cyclones, in my opinion, but any of these three could play well enough in Kansas City to take the title.  Almost like the Mountain West Tourney, you would be well served to avoid Kansas early, but if you beat the Jayhawks, your stock and confidence would definitely rise.

Last year, the Pac 12 was competitive, but in a negative way.  This year, it's just the opposite.  Teams are jockeying for position, but garnering two or three consecutive wins is not easy to do.  All too often, teams get what looks like an impressive victory, only to throw away their good ju-ju in the next game!  Five teams are capable of winning the title in Las Vegas, but the seven on the outside are good enough to spring a surprise or two to cast some doubt on the NCAA Tournament wanna-be's.

The MAC Championship game is always a wild affair in Cleveland, and for the sake of the league, it better pit Akron and Ohio in the title match.  These two teams are head and shoulders above the rest of their compadres, but any at-large chance will be scrapped if one of them lose prior to the championship.

The Big 10 Tourney is in Chicago this year.  Advantage Illinois?  Perhaps, but the intriguing thing here is what if the semi-finalists are not any of the projected top three seeds (Indiana, Michigan State, Michigan)?  I give Penn State virtually no chance to win its first game.  Northwestern, Purdue, and Nebraska have only slight chances to win their first.  Of the remaining eight, conventional wisdom says Iowa, Minnesota, and Illinois are good for one win at least, but only two at most?  Wisconsin and Ohio State are good enough to win two games at least, but right now, the Buckeyes and Michigan may be dipping.  Illinois and Iowa may be rising.  Wisconsin and Minnesota are holding steady.  In other words, I have no idea how this tournament is going to play out!

No at-large bids will be forthcoming for the Summit League or the Ohio Valley Conference, but each of them could boast three 20-game winners which means four of them (in all liklihood) will be left out of the 68-team mix. 

Typed too quickly. I meant Colorado on the Bubble in the PAC 12.

I'd say MD is still on the bubble, they can't go into BC and lay an egg this week.  Remember, they got blown out by Virginia last week who you have on the bubble too.

MD vs Virginia
MD's worst loss is Virginia with an RPI of 79. They are 2-4 vs teams in the top 50, hence potential tourney teams. Wins over Duke and NC State more than offset the marginal loss if you would call it that.

Virginia
is 3-1 vs top 50, which in an of itself is very solid, but 6 losses to sub RPI 100 teams, and especially to forementioned by Wachoosay, Old Dominion, which the RPI has in the bottom 15 in country. Is not good.

So, the question remains, is Maryland inside the 9 seed line? I'll give you that one, they're possibly a 10 seed right now, but a whole lot safer of a pick than VA. 

This is great jhzak! Here is my take on your selections (which are for the most part all correct the way I see it):

A-10: Temple also on the bubble. W/L is 1 gm better than Charlotte, same conf W/L, but they just beat Charlotte and have a win vs Syracuse on the resume. I have them still a tad ahead of Charlotte over-all and in if selections were made today. Palm has the A10 6 deep if selected today and I tend to agree with that but have Charlotte being closest to the bubble and possibly a lost 4 in currently.

ACC: Believe it or not, Maryland is definitely still on the bubble even after the Duke win. I (along with Palm and others) still have other "bubble teams" like Temple, La Salle, Oklahoma, UCLA and Colorado all ahead of them.

Big East: Sure they have 10 losses, but w/ wins over Syracuse, Louisville and UCONN, 'Nova has to at least be on the bubble for now, but unlike Palm, I don't think they are currently in.  

Big 12: I have Oklahoma ahead of Iowa St, with their much higher RPI and a signature win over Kansas. I do agree that a big road win would help a lot, but I have them in if the committee meets today. Iowa St. on the other hand would possibly be on the bubble (but still in for now as well).

CUSA: Southern Miss had a decent record for a bit, but definitely nothing bubble worthy now, it has popped for them.    

MAC: The bubble popped on Ohio a long time ago. Furthermore, the MAC will be a 1 team conf, so even Akron is headed to the NIT if they don't handle their business in the MAC tourney.    

Pac-12: I agree that they have a handful of bubble teams, but I have them going 5 deep come selection Sunday so the bubble will be shrinking for some of the other close teams.  I differ from Palm in that I think Arizona St. is still ahead of California. Cal is on the bubble at best if selecting today whereas I think Arizona St. slides in as one of the last 4 in.

SEC: I do think they get 4 in when it's all said and done and I completely agree that your 4 bubble teams will be playing for 2 spots down the stretch. Under certain circumstances, they could get 5, but it will take some work and some other teams ahead of them losing.

WCC: I think St. Mary's is in, but still has to be considered a bubble team as another conf loss could potentially pop it. BYU on the other hand is out... even with a win vs St. Mary's down the stretch, there are just too many better resumes ahead of them to sneak in.   

The SEC Tournament will be fun for the fact that nearly every game will include some sort of bubble team.

Here are my tournament selections/bubble teams if the committee met today. This isn't a prediction of how it will finish, but more of a "Who's in right now" kind of thing.

A-10
CC:  St. Louis
IN: Butler, VCU, La Salle, Temple
Bubble: Charlotte
Comment: I have Temple in for now, but w/ games vs La Salle and @Charlotte this week, they can cement a spot or play back to the bubble.
37-4=33   

ACC
CC: Miami (FL)
IN: Duke, NC State, North Carolina
Bubble: Maryland, Virginia
33-3=30

Big 12
CC; Oklahoma St.
IN: Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma
Bubble: Iowa St., Baylor
30-3=27

Big East
CC: Syracuse
IN: Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Notre Dame
Bubble: Villanova
Comment: All the other bubble teams are thankful UCONN is on probation because they'd be "IN" otherwise.
27-6=21


Big Ten
CC: Michigan St.
IN: Indiana, Michigan, Ohio St., Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois
Bubble: Iowa
Comment: I definitely have Iowa out right now, but they still have a shot to play their way in, especially if other bubble teams lose.
21-6=15

CUSA
CC: Memphis
Bubble: (None)
Comment: This is one of very few conferences this year where a "surprise" team could pop someone else's bubble by winning the conf tourney. Memphis would still get in, but the CUSA would move from a 1 bid to a 2 bid league.
15-0=15 

MVC
CC: Wichita St.
IN: Creigton
Bubble: (None)
Comment: I have to agree that with the 2 losses this past week, Indiana St. has played their way right off the bubble. I will also noe however that no team in the MVC is safe as if a team like Northern Iowa or Evansville or someone were to take the MVC tourney, both WSU and Creighton both could still play their way behind the bubble.
15-1=14

MWC
CC: New Mexico
IN: Colorado St., UNLV (Barely), San Diego St. (Barely)
Bubble: Boise St., Wyoming, Air Force
Comment: It may be a little unfair based on how strong they looked early on, but for right now, Colorado St. and New Mexico are the only "surefire" selections from the MWC. I do think they will still get 4-5, but not very many of them are locks currently.
14-3=11

Pac 12
CC: Oregon
IN: Arizona, UCLA, Colorado
Bubble: Arizona St., California
11-3=8

SEC
CC: Florida
IN: Missouri
Bubble: Kentucky, Arkansas, Alabama, Ole Miss
8-1=7

WCC
CC: Gonzaga
Bubble: St. Mary's
7-0=7

This leaves only 7 spots open and Charlotte, Maryland, Virginia, Iowa St., Baylor, Villanova, Iowa, Boise St., Wyoming, Air Force, Arizona St., California, Kentucky, Arkansas, Alabama, Ole Miss and St. Mary's (17 teams) playing for them.

If it were selected today, I would think Charlotte, Maryland, Baylor, Boise St, St. Mary's, Arkansas, Arizona St. would be the most worthy with a "1st Four Out" of Iowa St., California, Ole Miss and Villanova, followed by a "Next Four" of Kentucky, Air Force, Alabama and Virginia. This leaves Wyoming and Iowa a little further back, but not out of it yet by any means.

Good Comments All! I did forget Temple. Thanks.

On Iowa...their RPI is crap because they have five 300+ RPI teams from their non-conf.  That's no more or less impressive than five ~200 RPI wins, unless you're the RPI formula in which case you're super impressed by the latter.  They have 3 top 50 RPI wins which is better than a lot of the other teams in bubble conversation.  Just my take because I believe Iowa is a tourney quality team they are 29th on kenpom.com and have given the top Big Ten teams very good scares.  Losses included 3 pt MSU, 4 pt IU, 3 pt @ Minn, 4 pt @ Wisc...

Ole Miss is in far better bubble shape than Arkansas. Arkansas has the prettier wins, but they also have an awful road record and bad computer profile. Ole Miss doesn't have any bad losses, has a solid enough road record, and a solid enough RPI. They'd be fairly easily in at this point imo. With that said, they have a weak remaining schedule and could very easily play their way out if they drop a few to lesser competition. 

Also, I think if one is putting Arkansas on the bubble, Tennessee has to be mentioned as well.  

Also, I think if one is putting Arkansas on the bubble, Tennessee has to be mentioned as well.

I don't think Tennessee "has to" be mentioned as well. Arkansas has a better W/L record and in the past 2 weeks has a decisive win over Florida. I'll admit they are on the fringe, but I also believe they are better than Ole Miss (but I'd put Alabama and Tennessee in that boat as well). I do agree that most still have Ole Miss in for now, but they just about lost to Georgia the other day (which alone could have put them on the bubble) and still have plenty of chances to play their way out. As far as me using the "If they selected right now" however, I'll admit that maybe I've been too hard on them and that as of right now they'd still be clinging on to a spot.   Tennessee and their 12 losses though are a lost cause, whereas Arkansas has clearly moved up onto the bubble.

As far as Ole Miss goes, I can still see the committee opting for other teams on the bubble over them just because of the lack of "good" wins. When your best win is against Missouri, but your 2nd and 3rd best wins are against Arkansas and Tennessee it's hard to see the committee finding that tournament worthy. But this year is unlike many in that teams like Ole Miss might still get in with terrible resumes like that. Sure they have some road wins, but who have they beat? After Mizzou, Arkansas and Tennessee (already not that impressive of a resume) you have Rutgers and Georgia probably as their 4th and 5th best wins, and out of the 5 teams I consider to be their best wins, Tennessee is the only one they beat on the road. I'm just not sure that's going to cut it come selection Sunday.  

 Tennessee and their 12 losses though are a lost cause

?

Tennessee only has 10 losses, as opposed to Arkansas, who has 9. There are plenty of teams with 10 losses on the bubble, including Villanova, St John's, and Indiana State.

Tennessee has the better computer profile out of the two. Arkansas has prettier wins, but also uglier losses. Tennessee does have a good win over Wichita State, though. They also have a few other alright wins over UMass, Kentucky, and Alabama. Both teams have struggled on the road, but at least Tennessee has a neutral court victory against a Top 100 RPI team (unlike Arkansas). 

I honestly think Tennessee has a better overall resume than Arkansas right now, but Arkansas is getting more hype because of the fact that they have awesome wins as far as bubble teams go (Florida, Oklahoma, Missouri). The rest of their resume is abysmal, though. 

Ole Miss doesn't have many good wins (actually they only have one) but they'll be rewarded for the fact that they don't have any bad losses. Now, if they screw that up down the stretch and lose to a team like South Carolina or Mississippi State, then they'll be out. But for now I think they're in. 

I have Arkansas there soley because of their win over Florida. Yes, they are on the fringe, and MS is much closer to in.

Glad to see Iowa in the running. I Think they are going to do what's neccesary to get in. Still pulling for Wyoming but they are a massive long shot. Ole Miss may have an dull resume but they have the edge over Arkansas and Alabama. No bad losses so far. The SEC will be interesting. Kentucky was looking good until Noel went down. The SEC should get four in. Like evey year some teams will choke a sure bid and other teams will get hot and steal bids at the wire. The end of the regular season is almost as good as the tournament.

If it were selected today, I would think Charlotte, Maryland, Baylor, Boise St, St. Mary's, Arkansas, Arizona St. would be the most worthy with a "1st Four Out" of Iowa St., California, Ole Miss and Villanova, followed by a "Next Four" of Kentucky, Air Force, Alabama and Virginia. This leaves Wyoming and Iowa a little further back, but not out of it yet by any means.

I now have to criticize my own comment. After doing some further review, I can see now that Arkansas would not be in if committee met today (or on Monday when this was posted). I'd swap in any of the 4 listed as my "1st Four Out", but if I had to predict, I'd say it would go to Ole Miss for now. I'm not sure that Arkansas would even make the 1st Four Out group. Basically after the teams that get in, then Iowa St., Villanova and Cal, basically all the other teams are on even ground right now. Even Iowa may be closer than I originally gave them credit for. I mean honestly, it wouldn't take much (if anything) for them to move up over Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky or Cal. 

2nd note, with their loss to Boston Coll. (albeit on the road, but nonetheless) Maryland has played back into my 1st Four Out, with either Iowa St. or Villanova now in. From Monday that puts Ole Miss and Iowa St/Villanove in with Arkansas and Maryland out. 1st Four Out are now Iowa St/Villanove (whichever wouldn't be in), Maryland, California and Virginia/Iowa. "Next Four" would be Virgnia/Iowa (whichever wasn't in 1st Four Out), Alabama, Arkansas, Air Force. Kentucky is now down with Wyoming as teams that looked like solid picks at various times this season, but have mostly played their way out at this point, although both could still have a shot with a strong finish and some help.

Well..... So long Ole Miss, for now.

Since unolobo hasn't made an appearance here yet, I'll steal his thunder...

UConn is clearly in.