Michael Bourn

The Mets can not ask for a ruling until they make the pick.  Yes they have been having discussions behind closed doors, but it ultimately came down to, "you can not ask for a ruling prior".  That is what makes the situation stickier.  They have already been told that cant get a ruling until after they make the signing, and therefore without assurance they are going to be less inclined to give him the 5 he wishes or even move to a 4 year.  Plus it will limit the desire to stretch the pocketbook a bit.

The organization wants Bourn, but they are not going to give Boras the money or length he is looking for, so yes we might not get him for more than a one year deal, but then Seattle becomes in play as well, even more so.  The thing that does help Bourn even though his game is predicated on speed is that he did have 703 plate appearances last year.  So it isn't like Jose Reyes where you expect time off for injuries due to hamstrings and such.  Apparently Michael knows how to stay conditioned enough so as not to pull anything.  And there have been guys through history, albeit few that have sustained speed through the years.  The ones that have injury concerns ussually show it by now.  He can sustain his speed for at lesat 3-4 years before the drop off and the steals are a big part feel for when it is safe to go.  He has that.

We need to pick Bourn up and then our minor league guys can become corner OFs which is easier to train.  This could escalate our revelance by a year or two and make 2014 a very viable option to compete for post season, if we don't have things go right and put us there this year.  Potential doesn't necessarily amount to success, but we have as much potential as any ball club, if not more because the lack of established talent which most of the clubs already competitive do have.

I say sign him and let it work itself out.  It is one pick that may not every come to fruition anyway and if he did it would be many years down the road.

I stlll think Bourn is a good pickup even for more money that he should really get, but there is a length of contract issue here.  Alderson is right to wait out the market and see what happens.  That might mean he's signed by someone else, but if it's 4-5 years then it's the right move.  2-3 years is a whole different story.

Bourn isn't exactly this era's Kenny Lofton, but he does play a good CF, get on base, steal bases and score a bunch of runs.  It would be a lot better if he didn't strike out so much--and that's what hurts his value since his OBP is a lot lower than it should be for a leadoff hitter.

It'll be interesting to see how this pans out.  If he's reasonable the #11 pick is probably worth it since it's a crap shoot anyhow but you don't want to have him here for 5 or 6 years as I think everyone more or less agrees. 

Will the signing of Bourn make the Mets a contender? NO

Will the Mets be more entertaining to watch if they sign Bourn? Yes

Will MLB grant the Mets the 1st round exemption for signing Bourn? Unknown

Should MLB grant the exemption? Absolutely not because it will set a bad precedent.

If baseball grants the exemption, Bourn gets an "escape clause" built into his contract and the Mets offer him 12-14 mill per then Bourn will be a Met.

The Mets are still a righty power hitting outfielder, an "ace type" of starter (hopefully Harvey or Wheeler grow into that role eventually) and a "real" pen (hopefully the young guys step up) away from being contenders for the second wild card even with Bourn.

Bourn makes sense if another couple of moves are going to be made to make this team legit thus not letting the resigning of Wright be for nothing. 

Michael Bourn is a need for for his defense in CF and that is all he brings to the table for 15 M per year times X years and the loss of the 11th pick in the Draft.  I have built a CF platoon which will mimic Bourn offensively for 1 M and we already have them on the roster.  Like Jack Spratt and his wife it takes two clean the plate, our two are Collin Cowgill who hit .315 against LHP and .208 vs RHP.  The other dance partner is Kirk Nieuwenhuis who likes those RHP .271s worth, but can't hit the southpaws .180.  The following the the platoon numbers based on 550 ABs and the recognized 70/30 split RH/LH.  compared with Bourn's actuals from 2012.
                        Avg.      OBP       Runs      HRs     RBIs     SB

Platoon            .285       .321       95         16       70       13

Bourn             .274       .348       96          9       57       42

Factors to consider when evaluating, Bourn had 74 more ABs than Cowgill/Nieuwenhuis.  In terms of run productivity he produced 144 runs and the platoon projects to 149 in fewer ABs.  That measure pretty much negates the value of the SB.  Finally the stats used to produce the platoon projection contained ABs facing the lethal RH or LHP that owned Cowgill or Nieuwenhuis, This would seen to indicate that putting each in the best enviornment to succeed would produce even better results. 
      

  

That's some admirable work for sure Yogi and it looks good on paper.

The issue though is sample size.  Cowgill has a total of 196 major-league AB and Nieuwenhuis has 282.  Plus Nieuwenhuis had some worrisome trends last year, hitting .325 in April, .263 in May, .238 in June and .105 in July. 

The sample sizes work both ways--there could be big upside for Cowgill and Nieuwenhius that we don't know about.  The difference is that Bourne has 3000+ AB in the majors, so his numbers are much more reliable. 

Granted the sample is small but that may just be the platoon in CF for 2013 and would be, even if the number don't hold up, better than either Cowgill or Nieuwenhuis singularly.  Matt Van Dekker has been invited to the major league camp this spring so he may be part of the mix.  Incidently Mike Baxter and Andrew Brown can be dropped in the Cusinart and blended into a better RF than the 2012 model.   Mets could make up unis with Michael Andrew Baxter-Brown on the back after the DNA is all spun together.

















                 

Yogi I agree that is Aldersons' plan going into the spring unless Bourn really takes a discount however I think Bourn will be more effective this year overall.

Man that's a real murderer's row out there...

Seriously though I know that's the plan, and there is always a chance that someone will emerge from that group to be a productive major league player.  I have very little faith in any of them, though we all did see Nieuwenhuis give something for a short time last year and Cowgill and Baxter have a certain measure of upside but overall that's just not much to go on.

 

I don't think anyone is giving Bourn more than a 3-year deal so Alderson will be right in holding off any talks unless they start and end with 3-years. i also think $15 is way too overpriced for a guy who's career year last season amounted to a .276 average. Alderson has to use Angel Pagan's free agent contract as a comparison ($10 million for 3 years). Pagan has speed like Bourn, covered centerfield wonderfully in SF last year, and is the same age. But Pagan has more power, hits more extra base hits and hits for a higher average.

As for the combinations that people are suggesting instead of signing Bourn, forget about the numbers you're putting on paper. No combination will give you the necessary defense Bourn will bring to the team and no combination will provide the speed or OBP necessary to score runs.

I'm not a great fan of Bourn's but would gladly pay him $10m-$11M for 3 years, not more. Offensively he's not a superstar. He strikes out more often than you'd like to see and is basically a singles hitter with speed. But when I think of the disaster we have as an alternative, and the fact we have nobody in our minor league system ready to step in this year or probably next year in centerfield, then Bourn becomes my center of attention because at least you know we're set in centerfield. That's one of 3 positions in our outfield out of the way. 

Then you can use the circus of platoon players to fill the two corner outfield positions.  

Excuse me, Pagan is 2-years older than Bourn and signed a 4-year deal at $10m per.

Alderson/Mets FO flew to Houston to have dinner with Bourn and his agent Scott Bora$.  Bourn said he wanted a 5 year deal, obviously this is what he's gonna say... But... that doesn't mean he won't accept a 3 year deal with an opt out after a year or 2.  Boras likes those kinds of contracts when the market is minimal or slow for his free agents, he's okay's it before for other players of his.  And the Mets like the idea of it too, it buys them time to get outfielders like Nimmo closer to ready while having a respectable outfielder over the next year or 2.

This is what is said to have been discussed during the dinner.

Again though, none of this stuff will matter unless the Mets know they can keep their 1st round pick first.